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Braves 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Braves Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.982)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Ronald Acuña Jr., actual: 735 643 217 35 4 41 383 80 0 3 9 0 1499
Ronald Acuña Jr., projected: 722 625 183 33 3 38 335 81 0 4 11 1 1190
Ehire Adrianza, actual: 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Ehire Adrianza, projected: 11 10 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 380
Ozzie Albies, actual: 660 596 167 30 5 33 306 46 0 8 8 2 965
Ozzie Albies, projected: 648 594 162 35 6 25 284 43 0 5 5 0 862
Orlando Arcia, actual: 533 488 129 25 0 17 205 39 0 3 3 0 715
Orlando Arcia, projected: 523 481 119 20 1 13 182 37 1 3 2 0 590
Charlie Culberson, actual: 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Charlie Culberson, projected: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Travis d'Arnaud, actual: 292 267 60 13 0 11 106 21 0 1 3 0 590
Travis d'Arnaud, projected: 287 261 65 14 1 10 111 21 0 2 3 0 682
Vaughn Grissom, actual: 80 75 21 3 1 0 26 2 0 1 2 0 558
Vaughn Grissom, projected: 79 72 21 3 0 2 29 4 0 1 2 0 831
Michael Harris II, actual: 539 505 148 33 3 18 241 25 1 3 5 0 858
Michael Harris II, projected: 529 496 146 32 3 20 245 25 1 2 5 0 901
Sam Hilliard, actual: 78 72 17 5 0 3 31 6 0 0 0 0 683
Sam Hilliard, projected: 77 69 15 3 1 3 29 7 0 0 0 0 680
Nicky Lopez, actual: 72 65 18 3 0 1 24 5 0 1 1 0 814
Nicky Lopez, projected: 71 63 16 3 1 0 20 5 1 0 1 0 530
Sean Murphy, actual: 438 370 93 21 0 21 177 49 0 1 18 0 911
Sean Murphy, projected: 430 372 89 23 1 17 164 44 0 2 11 0 779
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Matt Olson, actual: 720 608 172 27 3 54 367 104 0 4 4 0 1260
Matt Olson, projected: 707 611 156 32 1 43 319 84 0 4 8 0 971
Marcell Ozuna, actual: 592 530 145 29 1 40 296 57 0 2 3 0 1025
Marcell Ozuna, projected: 581 530 142 25 2 25 247 47 0 3 2 0 813
Kevin Pillar, actual: 206 197 45 10 0 9 82 6 0 3 0 0 571
Kevin Pillar, projected: 202 190 49 11 1 5 78 8 1 1 2 0 621
Austin Riley, actual: 715 636 179 32 3 37 328 59 0 11 9 0 977
Austin Riley, projected: 702 628 173 33 2 37 320 55 0 7 12 0 941
Eddie Rosario, actual: 516 478 122 24 3 21 215 34 1 2 1 0 688
Eddie Rosario, projected: 507 474 127 24 4 20 218 26 2 4 1 0 744
Braden Shewmake, actual: 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Braden Shewmake, projected: 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chadwick Tromp, actual: 16 16 2 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 71
Chadwick Tromp, projected: 16 15 3 1 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 501
Forrest Wall, actual: 15 13 6 2 0 1 11 2 0 0 0 0 3350
Forrest Wall, projected: 15 13 6 2 0 1 11 2 0 0 0 0 3350
Eli White, actual: 17 14 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 133
Eli White, projected: 17 15 3 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 294
Luke Williams, actual: 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Luke Williams, projected: 9 8 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 446
Braves, Actual: 6249 5597 1543 293 23 307 2803 538 2 43 67 2 943
Braves, Projected: 6138 5532 1479 295 27 260 2607 492 6 38 65 1 848
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.276 0.267
Slugging Average: 0.501 0.471
Walks (per PA): 0.086 0.080
SOs (per PA): 0.206 0.215
On-Base Average: 0.344 0.332
Power Factor: 1.817 1.763
OPS: 0.845 0.804
TOP Runs (to date): 947 840

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 107 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.