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The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site

Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2023 Major-League Team-Performance Results


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
TOP/TPP Projected
Current Wins
Actual
Current Wins
Dodgers0.630102102100
Braves0.623101101104
Rays0.61710010099
Rangers0.605989890
Mariners0.574939388
Twins0.574939387
Phillies0.568929290
Astros0.562919190
Cubs0.556909083
Padres0.556909082
Blue Jays0.549898989
Orioles0.5438888101
Brewers0.525858592
Diamondbacks0.494808084
Red Sox0.488797978
Giants0.481787879
Marlins0.481787884
Mets0.475777774
Yankees0.475777782
Tigers0.475777778
Angels0.469767673
Reds0.463757582
Guardians0.457747476
Cardinals0.457747471
Pirates0.444727276
Royals0.414676756
Nationals0.389636371
White Sox0.364595961
Rockies0.358585859
Athletics0.321525250


Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Braves 0.623 Cubs 0.556 Dodgers 0.630 Rays 0.617 Twins 0.574 Rangers 0.605
Phillies 0.568 Brewers 0.525 Padres 0.556 Blue Jays 0.549 Tigers 0.475 Mariners 0.574
Marlins 0.481 Reds 0.463 Diamondbacks 0.494 Orioles 0.543 Guardians 0.457 Astros 0.562
Mets 0.475 Cardinals 0.457 Giants 0.481 Red Sox 0.488 Royals 0.414 Angels 0.469
Nationals 0.389 Pirates 0.444 Rockies 0.358 Yankees 0.475 White Sox 0.364 Athletics 0.321


Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.


Actual (not projected) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Braves 0.642 Brewers 0.568 Dodgers 0.617 Orioles 0.623 Twins 0.537 Astros 0.556
Phillies 0.556 Cubs 0.512 Diamondbacks 0.519 Rays 0.611 Tigers 0.481 Rangers 0.556
Marlins 0.519 Reds 0.506 Padres 0.506 Blue Jays 0.549 Guardians 0.469 Mariners 0.543
Mets 0.457 Pirates 0.469 Giants 0.488 Yankees 0.506 White Sox 0.377 Angels 0.451
Nationals 0.438 Cardinals 0.438 Rockies 0.364 Red Sox 0.481 Royals 0.346 Athletics 0.309

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

Team Performance Stats Table

Team
(alphabetical by city)
Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Diamondbacks 162 727 746 732 761 84 80 -4 80 -4 -4
Braves 162 934 947 709 716 104 101 -3 101 -3 -3
Orioles 162 739 807 671 678 101 94 -7 88 -13 -13
Red Sox 162 759 772 778 776 78 81 +3 79 +1 +1
Cubs 162 793 819 701 723 83 90 +7 90 +7 +7
White Sox 162 614 641 833 841 61 61 0 59 -2 -2
Reds 162 774 783 839 821 82 77 -5 75 -7 -7
Guardians 162 660 662 722 697 76 77 +1 74 -2 -2
Rockies 162 683 721 940 957 59 60 +1 58 -1 -1
Tigers 162 653 661 687 740 78 73 -5 77 -1 -1
Astros 162 816 827 712 698 90 94 +4 91 +1 +1
Royals 162 669 676 807 859 56 63 +7 67 +11 +11
Angels 162 750 739 805 829 73 72 -1 76 +3 +3
Dodgers 162 887 906 670 699 100 100 0 102 +2 +2
Marlins 162 689 668 715 723 84 75 -9 78 -6 -6
Brewers 162 683 728 645 647 92 90 -2 85 -7 -7
Twins 162 775 778 657 659 87 93 +6 93 +6 +6
Mets 162 712 717 749 731 74 80 +6 77 +3 +3
Yankees 162 656 673 688 698 82 78 -4 77 -5 -5
Athletics 162 600 585 904 924 50 49 -1 52 +2 +2
Phillies 162 801 796 688 715 90 89 -1 92 +2 +2
Pirates 162 681 692 771 790 76 71 -5 72 -4 -4
Padres 162 758 752 669 648 82 92 +10 90 +8 +8
Mariners 162 755 758 643 659 88 91 +3 93 +5 +5
Giants 162 664 674 692 719 79 76 -3 78 -1 -1
Cardinals 162 760 719 840 829 71 70 -1 74 +3 +3
Rays 162 818 860 634 665 99 100 +1 100 +1 +1
Rangers 162 862 881 682 716 90 96 +6 98 +8 +8
Blue Jays 162 764 746 687 671 89 89 0 89 0 0
Nationals 162 688 700 880 845 71 67 -4 63 -8 -8


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

“Error” Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of “Error”
Percentage size
of “Error”
Cumulative “Error”
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP 18.13 runs 2.42% 18.13 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP 20.13 runs 2.68% -9.47 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP 19.13 runs 2.55% -9.9 runs
Games Won from R/OR 3.67 wins --- 0 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP 4.23 wins --- -0.03 wins

Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season. Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 3.87%

(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)




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