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2021 Major-League Team-Performance Results


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Monday, 24 January 2022.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Dodgers.667108
Giants.630102
Astros.623101
Rays.61199
Blue Jays.59396
White Sox.59396
Braves.57193
Brewers.56892
Cardinals.53787
Yankees.53787
Red Sox.52585
Athletics.52585
Padres.50682
Phillies.50682
Reds.50682
Mets.50081
Indians.48178
Nationals.46976
Twins.46976
Rockies.46675
Mariners.45774
Royals.45173
Marlins.44472
Angels.44472
Tigers.43871
Cubs.41467
Rangers.38963
Pirates.37060
Diamondbacks.37060
Orioles.35858


Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Braves .571 Brewers .568 Dodgers .667 Rays .611 White Sox .593 Astros .623
Phillies .506 Cardinals .537 Giants .630 Blue Jays .593 Indians .481 Athletics .525
Mets .500 Reds .506 Padres .506 Yankees .537 Twins .469 Mariners .457
Nationals .469 Cubs .414 Rockies .466 Red Sox .525 Royals .451 Angels .444
Marlins .444 Pirates .370 Diamondbacks .370 Orioles .358 Tigers .438 Rangers .389


Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.


Actual (not projected) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Braves .547 Brewers .586 Giants .660 Rays .617 White Sox .574 Astros .586
Phillies .506 Cardinals .556 Dodgers .654 Yankees .568 Indians .494 Mariners .556
Mets .475 Reds .512 Padres .488 Red Sox .568 Tigers .475 Athletics .531
Marlins .414 Cubs .438 Rockies .460 Blue Jays .562 Royals .457 Angels .475
Nationals .401 Pirates .377 Diamondbacks .321 Orioles .321 Twins .451 Rangers .370

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Diamondbacks1626476798598935261+960+8+8
Braves1617497906416568894+692+4+4
Orioles1626516598949565254+258+6+6
Red Sox1627928297507499289-385-7-7
Cubs1626727058148397168-367-4-4
White Sox1627657966286369398+596+3+3
Reds1627527867427608384+182-1-1
Indians1626707176957278080078-2-2
Rockies1616967397527967475+175+1+1
Tigers1626676977637567775-271-6-6
Astros16283486363865895101+6101+6+6
Royals1626696867467887471-373-1-1
Angels1626687237578047773-472-5-5
Dodgers162792830543561106109+3108+2+2
Marlins1625986236777016772+572+5+5
Brewers1626947385966239594-192-3-3
Twins1627247297788347371-276+3+3
Mets1626386366346687777081+4+4
Yankees1627047116506699286-687-5-5
Athletics1627137436796878687+185-1-1
Phillies1627097346977458280-28200
Pirates1626046098078336158-360-1-1
Padres1627007296907087983+482+3+3
Mariners1626456977097489076-1474-16-16
Giants162781804583594107103-4102-5-5
Cardinals1626987066406729085-587-3-3
Rays162781857612651100101+199-1-1
Rangers1625996257638156062+263+3+3
Blue Jays1628238466716639199+896+5+5
Nationals1627387247898206572+776+11+11


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP28.97 runs3.88%-27.9 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP28.17 runs3.75%-27.1 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP28.57 runs3.82%-27.5 runs
Games Won from R/OR3.77 wins---0.3 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP4.17 wins---0.1 wins

Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season. Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 3.91%

(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 25 January 2022, at 2:44 pm Pacific Time.