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2024 Major-League Team-Performance Results


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Monday, 17 June 2024.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
TOP/TPP Projected
Current Wins
Actual
Current Wins
Dodgers0.6761105045
Orioles0.6621074747
Phillies0.6391044648
Yankees0.6351034750
Red Sox0.603984438
Braves0.571934039
Brewers0.569924142
Mariners0.554904143
Guardians0.551893844
Royals0.548894041
Twins0.528863840
Mets0.521843734
Padres0.513833937
Tigers0.500813634
Astros0.500813633
Diamondbacks0.486793535
Giants0.479783536
Cardinals0.479783436
Reds0.472763434
Rangers0.472763433
Cubs0.466753434
Nationals0.465753335
Pirates0.458743335
Angels0.431703129
Blue Jays0.431703135
Athletics0.405663026
Rays0.389632834
Rockies0.361582625
Marlins0.333542423
White Sox0.315512319


Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Phillies 0.639 Brewers 0.569 Dodgers 0.676 Orioles 0.662 Guardians 0.551 Mariners 0.554
Braves 0.571 Cardinals 0.479 Padres 0.513 Yankees 0.635 Royals 0.548 Astros 0.500
Mets 0.521 Reds 0.472 Diamondbacks 0.486 Red Sox 0.603 Twins 0.528 Rangers 0.472
Nationals 0.465 Cubs 0.466 Giants 0.479 Blue Jays 0.431 Tigers 0.500 Angels 0.431
Marlins 0.333 Pirates 0.458 Rockies 0.361 Rays 0.389 White Sox 0.315 Athletics 0.405


Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.


Actual (not projected) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Phillies 0.667 Brewers 0.583 Dodgers 0.608 Yankees 0.676 Guardians 0.638 Mariners 0.581
Braves 0.557 Cardinals 0.507 Giants 0.493 Orioles 0.662 Royals 0.562 Astros 0.458
Nationals 0.493 Pirates 0.486 Padres 0.487 Red Sox 0.521 Twins 0.556 Rangers 0.458
Mets 0.479 Reds 0.472 Diamondbacks 0.486 Blue Jays 0.486 Tigers 0.472 Angels 0.403
Marlins 0.319 Cubs 0.466 Rockies 0.347 Rays 0.472 White Sox 0.260 Athletics 0.351

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

Team Performance Stats Table

Team
(alphabetical by city)
Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Diamondbacks 72 326 350 341 347 35 36 +1 35 0 0
Braves 70 307 311 266 273 39 39 0 40 +1 +2
Orioles 71 351 364 245 250 47 47 0 47 0 0
Red Sox 73 345 339 278 297 38 41 +3 44 +6 +13
Cubs 73 294 304 316 322 34 35 +1 34 0 0
White Sox 73 241 229 369 384 19 20 +1 23 +4 +9
Reds 72 284 307 301 297 34 37 +3 34 0 0
Guardians 69 295 341 263 255 44 44 0 38 -6 -14
Rockies 72 291 303 394 418 25 26 +1 26 +1 +2
Tigers 72 286 305 288 309 34 36 +2 36 +2 +5
Astros 72 325 319 322 315 33 36 +3 36 +3 +7
Royals 73 316 351 289 290 41 43 +2 40 -1 -2
Angels 72 295 299 341 371 29 29 0 31 +2 +5
Dodgers 74 377 367 256 262 45 48 +3 50 +5 +11
Marlins 72 236 251 343 368 23 24 +1 24 +1 +2
Brewers 72 342 347 294 286 42 42 0 41 -1 -2
Twins 72 323 334 301 318 40 38 -2 38 -2 -5
Mets 71 320 327 309 333 34 35 +1 37 +3 +7
Yankees 74 365 374 268 250 50 50 0 47 -3 -7
Athletics 74 275 266 341 358 26 27 +1 30 +4 +9
Phillies 72 353 364 258 261 48 47 -1 46 -2 -5
Pirates 72 296 297 324 322 35 33 -2 33 -2 -5
Padres 76 324 335 317 326 37 39 +2 39 +2 +4
Mariners 74 278 288 246 269 43 39 -4 41 -2 -4
Giants 73 316 322 335 344 36 34 -2 35 -1 -2
Cardinals 71 284 276 294 313 36 31 -5 34 -2 -5
Rays 72 271 279 344 350 34 29 -5 28 -6 -14
Rangers 72 284 302 305 319 33 34 +1 34 +1 +2
Blue Jays 72 274 281 319 316 35 32 -3 31 -4 -9
Nationals 71 274 289 292 298 35 34 -1 33 -2 -5


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

“Error” Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of “Error”
Percentage size
of “Error”
Cumulative “Error”
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP 12.5 runs 3.97% 12.5 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP 12.07 runs 3.78% -8.73 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP 12.29 runs 3.88% -8.92 runs
Games Won from R/OR 1.7 wins --- 0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP 2.3 wins --- 0.03 wins

Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season. Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 5.99%

(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 18 June 2024, at 7:32 am Pacific Time.