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2022 Major-League Team-Performance Results


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Tuesday, 28 June 2022.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
TOP/TPP Projected
Current Wins
Actual
Current Wins
Yankees.6801105155
Dodgers.6581074845
Astros.6301024646
Red Sox.587954442
Braves.587954443
Padres.579944445
Mets.573934347
Cardinals.571934443
Phillies.560914239
Giants.548894040
Twins.545884243
Blue Jays.541884042
Brewers.539874143
Mariners.513833935
Marlins.507823733
Rangers.507823736
Rays.507823740
Angels.506823936
Guardians.493803537
Orioles.461753535
Cubs.446723328
Rockies.440713333
White Sox.438713235
Diamondbacks.427693234
Nationals.377612929
Royals.370602726
Tigers.370602728
Reds.370602726
Pirates.365592729
Athletics.303492325


Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Braves .587 Cardinals .571 Dodgers .658 Yankees .680 Twins .545 Astros .630
Mets .573 Brewers .539 Padres .579 Red Sox .587 Guardians .493 Mariners .513
Phillies .560 Cubs .446 Giants .548 Blue Jays .541 White Sox .438 Rangers .507
Marlins .507 Reds .370 Rockies .440 Rays .507 Tigers .370 Angels .506
Nationals .377 Pirates .365 Diamondbacks .427 Orioles .461 Royals .370 Athletics .303


Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.


Actual (not projected) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Mets .627 Brewers .566 Dodgers .616 Yankees .733 Twins .558 Astros .630
Braves .573 Cardinals .558 Padres .592 Blue Jays .568 Guardians .521 Rangers .493
Phillies .520 Pirates .392 Giants .548 Red Sox .560 White Sox .479 Angels .468
Marlins .452 Cubs .378 Diamondbacks .453 Rays .548 Tigers .384 Mariners .461
Nationals .377 Reds .356 Rockies .440 Orioles .461 Royals .356 Athletics .329

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Diamondbacks752923083413553433-132-2-4
Braves753533542893084342-144+1+2
Orioles763113113393313536+13500
Red Sox753523582942994244+244+2+4
Cubs743213133663922829+133+5+11
White Sox733003083403533532-332-3-7
Reds732773193733942629+327+1+2
Guardians712923122993013737035-2-5
Rockies753393363813993332-13300
Tigers732172192923172824-427-1-2
Astros733253182442484645-14600
Royals732842813743852626027+1+2
Angels773153233093223639+339+3+6
Dodgers733543682522434550+548+3+7
Marlins733143193123153337+437+4+9
Brewers763313373053174340-341-2-4
Twins773463473123004344+142-1-2
Mets753443662953074744-343-4-9
Yankees753623782412295554-151-4-9
Athletics762212413443532525023-2-4
Phillies753403553003223941+242+3+6
Pirates742612663563682926-327-2-4
Padres763273532722904545044-1-2
Mariners763192973073033537+239+4+9
Giants733333562973154041+14000
Cardinals773563703072994346+344+1+2
Rays732772952702784039-137-3-7
Rangers733083243043103638+237+1+2
Blue Jays743483523183234240-240-2-4
Nationals773083084084162928-12900


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP11.7 runs3.62%-8.83 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP11.9 runs3.66%-8.37 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP11.8 runs3.64%-8.6 runs
Games Won from R/OR1.83 wins---0.17 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP1.93 wins---0 wins

Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season. Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 5.91%

(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)




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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 29 June 2022, at 1:27 pm Pacific Time.