The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site

Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

Click here to email us.

You are here: Home » dailies » teams » this page

(Click on any image above to see it at full size.)

You are here: Home » dailies » teams » this page

(Click on any image above to see it at full size.)

You are here: Home » dailies » teams » this page

Click here to search this site.

You can get a site directory by clicking on the “hamburger” icon (

) in the upper right of this page.
Or you can search this site with Google (standard Google-search rules apply).

Search term(s):

2026 Major-League Team-Performance Results

Position Players:

Sorted by Performance:

Sorted by Name:

In Performance Order by Position(s) Played, Current Season:

Alphabetically by Position(s) Played, Current Season:

In Performance Order by Position(s) Played, Career:

Alphabetically by Position(s) Played, Career:

Frequent-Use Position Players, by performance
Frequent-Use Position Players, by name
[scroll up or down for more links, or click the big “X” to exit]

Pitchers:

Sorted by Performance:

Sorted by Name:

In Performance Order by Role, Current Season:

Alphabetically by Role, Current Season:

In Performance Order by Role, Career:

Alphabetically by Role, Career:

Frequent-Use Starters and Relievers, by performance
Frequent-Use Starters and Relievers, by name
[scroll up or down for more links, or click the big “X” to exit]

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.

Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

All Teams, by Performance
Team	TOP/TPP Projected Win Percentage	TOP/TPP Projected Seasonal Wins	TOP/TPP Projected Current Wins	Actual Current Wins
Dodgers	0.643	104	101	97
Brewers	0.631	102	99	98
Cubs	0.599	97	94	87
Yankees	0.586	95	92	90
Rays	0.573	93	90	96
Pirates	0.561	91	88	80
Tigers	0.557	90	88	74
Red Sox	0.554	90	87	84
Braves	0.548	89	86	92
Marlins	0.535	87	84	77
Padres	0.529	86	83	87
Diamondbacks	0.510	83	80	83
White Sox	0.510	83	80	81
Guardians	0.510	83	80	82
Phillies	0.503	81	79	87
Astros	0.490	79	77	78
Blue Jays	0.490	79	77	77
Mets	0.490	79	77	72
Nationals	0.487	79	77	74
Cardinals	0.484	78	76	76
Rangers	0.484	78	76	78
Mariners	0.478	77	75	73
Twins	0.475	77	75	74
Orioles	0.471	76	74	76
Giants	0.468	76	74	65
Royals	0.446	72	70	67
Angels	0.446	72	70	60
Reds	0.401	65	63	73
Rockies	0.382	62	60	57
Athletics	0.376	61	59	62

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

Actual Standings

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

Projected (not actual) Standings
National League	American League
East	Central	West	East	Central	West
Braves 0.548	Brewers 0.631	Dodgers 0.643	Yankees 0.586	Tigers 0.557	Astros 0.490
Marlins 0.535	Cubs 0.599	Padres 0.529	Rays 0.573	White Sox 0.510	Rangers 0.484
Phillies 0.503	Pirates 0.561	Diamondbacks 0.510	Red Sox 0.554	Guardians 0.510	Mariners 0.478
Mets 0.490	Cardinals 0.484	Giants 0.468	Blue Jays 0.490	Twins 0.475	Angels 0.446
Nationals 0.487	Reds 0.401	Rockies 0.382	Orioles 0.471	Royals 0.446	Athletics 0.376

Actual (not projected) Standings
National League	American League
East	Central	West	East	Central	West
Braves 0.586	Brewers 0.624	Dodgers 0.618	Rays 0.611	Guardians 0.522	Astros 0.497
Phillies 0.554	Cubs 0.554	Padres 0.554	Yankees 0.573	White Sox 0.516	Rangers 0.497
Marlins 0.490	Pirates 0.510	Diamondbacks 0.529	Red Sox 0.535	Tigers 0.468	Mariners 0.465
Nationals 0.468	Cardinals 0.484	Giants 0.411	Blue Jays 0.490	Twins 0.468	Athletics 0.395
Mets 0.459	Reds 0.465	Rockies 0.363	Orioles 0.484	Royals 0.427	Angels 0.382

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total.

NOTE: A minus error means that the projection is that many games below the actual wins total, while a plus error means that the projection is that many games above the actual wins total. Since the projection is the normal expected result from the team’s stats, one could say that a + error signifies a team “under-performing”—probably just bad luck with sequencing—while a - error signifies team “over-performing” (also probably from sequencing).

“Sequencing”—the order in which events happen in an inning—matters a lot: there is a big difference between an inning with a walk followed by a home run and one with a home run followed by a walk. Tons of analytic work by hordes of analysts suggest that sequencing averages out: to think else means believing in “clutch” performance, which few indeed do still believe in (see this this article by Eno Sarris and this article by Phil Birnbaum.)

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

Team Performance Stats Table

Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

Deviation (“error”) sizes will go down as the season goes on, and so can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season.

Team (alphabetical by team name)	Games Played	Runs	Games Won
Scored	Yielded	Actual Wins	Wins Projected From:
TOP	Real	TPP	Real	R/OR	(Error)	TOP/TPP	(Error)	Seasonal
Angels	157	612	632	694	721	60	69	+9	70	+10	+10
Astros	157	699	695	717	747	78	73	-5	77	-1	-1
Athletics	157	683	679	895	900	62	59	-3	59	-3	-3
Blue Jays	157	641	632	652	675	77	74	-3	77	0	0
Braves	157	706	722	638	606	92	91	-1	86	-6	-6
Brewers	157	780	806	581	606	98	99	+1	99	+1	+1
Cardinals	157	677	704	702	729	76	76	0	76	0	0
Cubs	157	841	837	675	691	87	92	+5	94	+7	+7
Diamondbacks	157	694	700	677	696	83	79	-4	80	-3	-3
Dodgers	157	788	787	577	587	97	99	+2	101	+4	+4
Giants	158	674	663	720	745	65	71	+6	74	+9	+9
Guardians	157	667	652	651	649	82	79	-3	80	-2	-2
Mariners	157	653	634	687	697	73	72	-1	75	+2	+2
Marlins	157	728	700	676	697	77	79	+2	84	+7	+7
Mets	157	673	674	686	712	72	75	+3	77	+5	+5
Nationals	158	767	803	785	796	74	80	+6	77	+3	+3
Orioles	157	673	697	711	727	76	75	-1	74	-2	-2
Padres	157	695	690	653	656	87	82	-5	83	-4	-4
Phillies	157	690	703	686	672	87	82	-5	79	-8	-8
Pirates	157	754	750	662	719	80	82	+2	88	+8	+8
Rangers	157	676	656	705	693	78	75	-3	76	-2	-2
Rays	157	713	713	604	627	96	88	-8	90	-6	-6
Reds	157	670	646	830	805	73	63	-10	63	-10	-10
Red Sox	157	693	680	619	601	84	87	+3	87	+3	+3
Rockies	157	728	729	947	911	57	63	+6	60	+3	+3
Royals	157	677	667	757	772	67	68	+1	70	+3	+3
Tigers	158	708	707	623	634	74	87	+13	88	+14	+14
Twins	158	705	717	750	783	74	73	-1	75	+1	+1
White Sox	157	713	747	698	702	81	83	+2	80	-1	-1
Yankees	157	692	716	573	582	90	93	+3	92	+2	+2

“Error” Type (calculated vs. actual)	Absolute size of “Error”	Percentage size of “Error”	Cumulative “Error” (+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP	13.73 runs	1.96%	-2.27 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP	19.5 runs	2.76%	-10.23 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP	16.62 runs	2.36%	-6.25 runs
Games Won from R/OR	3.9 wins	---	0.37 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP	4.33 wins	---	1.13 wins

This page was last modified on Wednesday, 23 September 2026, at 5:31 am Pacific Time.