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2023 Major-League Team-Performance Results


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Saturday, 30 September 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
TOP/TPP Projected
Current Wins
Actual
Current Wins
Braves0.627102102104
Dodgers0.62710210299
Rays0.62110110198
Rangers0.609999990
Twins0.578949487
Mariners0.571939387
Phillies0.571939389
Astros0.565929289
Cubs0.559919183
Padres0.559919181
Blue Jays0.553909089
Orioles0.5478989101
Brewers0.528868691
Diamondbacks0.503818184
Red Sox0.491808077
Marlins0.484787884
Mets0.484787874
Yankees0.484787882
Giants0.484787879
Tigers0.478777777
Angels0.472767672
Reds0.466757582
Guardians0.460757576
Cardinals0.453737370
Pirates0.441717175
Royals0.416676755
Nationals0.391636370
White Sox0.366595961
Rockies0.360585858
Athletics0.323525250


Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Braves 0.627 Cubs 0.559 Dodgers 0.627 Rays 0.621 Twins 0.578 Rangers 0.609
Phillies 0.571 Brewers 0.528 Padres 0.559 Blue Jays 0.553 Tigers 0.478 Mariners 0.571
Marlins 0.484 Reds 0.466 Diamondbacks 0.503 Orioles 0.547 Guardians 0.460 Astros 0.565
Mets 0.484 Cardinals 0.453 Giants 0.484 Red Sox 0.491 Royals 0.416 Angels 0.472
Nationals 0.391 Pirates 0.441 Rockies 0.360 Yankees 0.484 White Sox 0.366 Athletics 0.323


Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.


Actual (not projected) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Braves 0.646 Brewers 0.565 Dodgers 0.615 Orioles 0.627 Twins 0.540 Rangers 0.559
Phillies 0.553 Cubs 0.516 Diamondbacks 0.522 Rays 0.609 Tigers 0.478 Astros 0.553
Marlins 0.522 Reds 0.509 Padres 0.503 Blue Jays 0.553 Guardians 0.472 Mariners 0.540
Mets 0.460 Pirates 0.466 Giants 0.491 Yankees 0.509 White Sox 0.379 Angels 0.447
Nationals 0.435 Cardinals 0.435 Rockies 0.360 Red Sox 0.478 Royals 0.342 Athletics 0.311

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

Team Performance Stats Table

Team
(alphabetical by city)
Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Diamondbacks 162 727 746 725 753 84 80 -4 81 -3 -3
Braves 162 934 947 702 706 104 102 -2 102 -2 -2
Orioles 162 739 807 667 672 101 95 -6 89 -12 -12
Red Sox 162 759 772 778 775 77 81 +4 79 +2 +2
Cubs 162 793 819 696 719 83 91 +8 91 +8 +8
White Sox 162 614 641 830 839 61 61 0 59 -2 -2
Reds 162 774 783 834 817 82 78 -4 75 -7 -7
Guardians 162 660 662 716 692 76 78 +2 75 -1 -1
Rockies 162 683 721 936 955 58 60 +2 58 0 0
Tigers 162 653 661 685 738 77 73 -4 77 0 0
Astros 162 816 827 710 697 89 94 +5 91 +2 +2
Royals 162 669 676 805 857 55 64 +9 67 +12 +12
Angels 162 750 739 800 826 72 73 +1 76 +4 +4
Dodgers 162 887 906 668 697 99 100 +1 102 +3 +3
Marlins 162 689 668 712 720 84 75 -9 79 -5 -5
Brewers 162 683 728 644 647 91 90 -1 85 -6 -6
Twins 162 775 778 655 656 87 94 +7 93 +6 +6
Mets 162 712 717 741 722 74 80 +6 78 +4 +4
Yankees 162 656 673 681 693 82 79 -3 78 -4 -4
Athletics 162 600 585 895 917 50 49 -1 52 +2 +2
Phillies 162 801 796 688 714 89 89 0 92 +3 +3
Pirates 162 681 692 772 790 75 71 -4 72 -3 -3
Padres 162 758 752 666 647 81 92 +11 91 +10 +10
Mariners 162 755 758 643 659 87 91 +4 93 +6 +6
Giants 162 664 674 688 714 79 77 -2 78 -1 -1
Cardinals 162 760 719 836 826 70 71 +1 74 +4 +4
Rays 162 818 860 626 657 98 101 +3 101 +3 +3
Rangers 162 862 881 681 715 90 96 +6 98 +8 +8
Blue Jays 162 764 746 677 659 89 90 +1 90 +1 +1
Nationals 162 688 700 873 836 70 68 -2 63 -7 -7


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

“Error” Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of “Error”
Percentage size
of “Error”
Cumulative “Error”
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP 18.13 runs 2.42% 18.13 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP 20.17 runs 2.7% -9.5 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP 19.15 runs 2.56% -9.92 runs
Games Won from R/OR 3.77 wins --- 0.97 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP 4.37 wins --- 0.83 wins

Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season. Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 3.87%

(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2023, at 2:55 pm Pacific Time.