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2025 Major-League Team-Performance Results


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Sunday, 6 July 2025.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
TOP/TPP Projected
Current Wins
Actual
Current Wins
Yankees0.6561065949
Cubs0.6331035754
Tigers0.604985557
Astros0.589955355
Phillies0.578945253
Dodgers0.571935256
Mets0.571935252
Rays0.567925149
Red Sox0.560915146
Rangers0.556905044
Mariners0.556905048
Brewers0.544884950
Diamondbacks0.533864844
Braves0.528864739
Blue Jays0.522854752
Padres0.517844648
Giants0.516844749
Cardinals0.516844748
Reds0.511834646
Twins0.489794443
Royals0.484784443
Pirates0.484784438
Marlins0.443723940
Angels0.427693843
Guardians0.409663640
Orioles0.404653640
Nationals0.400653637
Athletics0.380623537
White Sox0.367593330
Rockies0.289472621

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Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Phillies 0.578 Cubs 0.633 Dodgers 0.571 Yankees 0.656 Tigers 0.604 Astros 0.589
Mets 0.571 Brewers 0.544 Diamondbacks 0.533 Rays 0.567 Twins 0.489 Mariners 0.556
Braves 0.528 Cardinals 0.516 Padres 0.517 Red Sox 0.560 Royals 0.484 Rangers 0.556
Marlins 0.443 Reds 0.511 Giants 0.516 Blue Jays 0.522 Guardians 0.409 Angels 0.427
Nationals 0.400 Pirates 0.484 Rockies 0.289 Orioles 0.404 White Sox 0.367 Athletics 0.380


Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.


Actual (not projected) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Phillies 0.589 Cubs 0.600 Dodgers 0.615 Blue Jays 0.578 Tigers 0.626 Astros 0.611
Mets 0.571 Brewers 0.556 Padres 0.539 Yankees 0.544 Twins 0.478 Mariners 0.533
Marlins 0.455 Cardinals 0.527 Giants 0.538 Rays 0.544 Royals 0.473 Rangers 0.489
Braves 0.438 Reds 0.511 Diamondbacks 0.489 Red Sox 0.505 Guardians 0.455 Angels 0.483
Nationals 0.411 Pirates 0.418 Rockies 0.233 Orioles 0.449 White Sox 0.333 Athletics 0.402

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Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total.

NOTE: A minus error means that the projection is that many games below the actual wins total, while a plus error means that the projection is that many games above the actual wins total. Since the projection is the normal expected result from the team’s stats, one could say that a + error signifies a team “under-performing”—probably just bad luck with sequencing—while a - error signifies team “over-performing” (also probably from sequencing).

“Sequencing”—the order in which events happen in an inning—matters a lot: there is a big difference between an inning with a walk followed by a home run and one with a home run followed by a walk. Tons of analytic work by hordes of analysts suggest that sequencing averages out: to think else means believing in “clutch” performance, which few indeed do still believe in (see this this article by Eno Sarris and this article by Phil Birnbaum.)

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

Team Performance Stats Table

Team
(alphabetical by team name)
Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Angels 89 372 379 438 428 43 40 -3 38 -5 -9
Astros 90 417 396 339 325 55 53 -2 53 -2 -4
Athletics 92 402 384 520 524 37 33 -4 35 -2 -4
Blue Jays 90 412 412 391 400 52 46 -6 47 -5 -9
Braves 89 379 357 358 353 39 45 +6 47 +8 +15
Brewers 90 404 420 364 363 50 51 +1 49 -1 -2
Cardinals 91 397 414 383 399 48 47 -1 47 -1 -2
Cubs 90 493 492 365 366 54 57 +3 57 +3 +5
Diamondbacks 90 459 461 428 461 44 45 +1 48 +4 +7
Dodgers 91 489 500 416 423 56 52 -4 52 -4 -7
Giants 91 365 381 352 351 49 49 0 47 -2 -4
Guardians 88 320 312 393 371 40 37 -3 36 -4 -7
Mariners 90 422 402 373 380 48 47 -1 50 +2 +4
Marlins 88 375 370 425 441 40 37 -3 39 -1 -2
Mets 91 433 402 369 358 52 50 -2 52 0 0
Nationals 90 375 397 465 483 37 37 0 36 -1 -2
Orioles 89 375 371 463 453 40 36 -4 36 -4 -7
Padres 89 365 363 350 351 48 46 -2 46 -2 -4
Phillies 90 425 413 362 358 53 51 -2 52 -1 -2
Pirates 91 325 310 337 347 38 41 +3 44 +6 +11
Rangers 90 351 340 310 315 44 48 +4 50 +6 +11
Rays 90 419 431 367 362 49 52 +3 51 +2 +4
Reds 90 391 415 386 383 46 48 +2 46 0 0
Red Sox 91 445 448 393 415 46 49 +3 51 +5 +9
Rockies 90 330 321 536 550 21 24 +3 26 +5 +9
Royals 91 329 304 344 334 43 42 -1 44 +1 +2
Tigers 91 439 456 345 350 57 56 -1 55 -2 -4
Twins 90 381 374 387 392 43 43 0 44 +1 +2
White Sox 90 323 311 438 395 30 35 +5 33 +3 +5
Yankees 90 494 462 349 367 49 54 +5 59 +10 +18

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Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

“Error” Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of “Error”
Percentage size
of “Error”
Cumulative “Error”
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP 13.4 runs 3.48% 3.6 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP 11 runs 2.75% -1.73 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP 12.2 runs 3.12% 0.94 runs
Games Won from R/OR 2.6 wins --- 0 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP 3.1 wins --- 0.63 wins

Deviation (“error”) sizes will go down as the season goes on, and so can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season.

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This page was last modified on Monday, 7 July 2025, at 4:01 am Pacific Time.