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2022 Major-League Team-Performance Results


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Saturday, 3 December 2022.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
TOP/TPP Projected
Current Wins
Actual
Current Wins
Dodgers.698113113111
Astros.654106106106
Yankees.64810510599
Braves.6119999101
Mets.5999797101
Cardinals.586959593
Phillies.568929287
Blue Jays.556909092
Guardians.556909092
Mariners.543888890
Brewers.537878786
Padres.525858589
Giants.519848481
Twins.519848478
Rays.512838386
Angels.488797973
White Sox.488797981
Orioles.481787883
Red Sox.475777778
Rangers.469767668
Diamondbacks.463757574
Cubs.451737374
Marlins.438717169
Rockies.414676768
Royals.395646465
Tigers.383626266
Reds.377616162
Pirates.358585862
Nationals.358585855
Athletics.346565660


Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Braves .611 Cardinals .586 Dodgers .698 Yankees .648 Guardians .556 Astros .654
Mets .599 Brewers .537 Padres .525 Blue Jays .556 Twins .519 Mariners .543
Phillies .568 Cubs .451 Giants .519 Rays .512 White Sox .488 Angels .488
Marlins .438 Reds .377 Diamondbacks .463 Orioles .481 Royals .395 Rangers .469
Nationals .358 Pirates .358 Rockies .414 Red Sox .475 Tigers .383 Athletics .346


Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.


Actual (not projected) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Braves .623 Cardinals .574 Dodgers .685 Yankees .611 Guardians .568 Astros .654
Mets .623 Brewers .531 Padres .549 Blue Jays .568 White Sox .500 Mariners .556
Phillies .537 Cubs .457 Giants .500 Rays .531 Twins .481 Angels .451
Marlins .426 Reds .383 Diamondbacks .457 Orioles .512 Tigers .407 Rangers .420
Nationals .340 Pirates .383 Rockies .420 Red Sox .481 Royals .401 Athletics .370

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Diamondbacks1626547027087407477+375+1+1
Braves162765789601609101100-199-2-2
Orioles1626736746986888379-478-5-5
Red Sox1627207357607877876-277-1-1
Cubs1626626577387317473-173-1-1
White Sox1626716866917178178-379-2-2
Reds1626076488018156264+261-1-1
Guardians1626886986106349288-490-2-2
Rockies1626896988378736864-467-1-1
Tigers1625365576967136663-362-4-4
Astros162728737512518106107+110600
Royals1626456408168106564-164-1-1
Angels1626296236446687376+379+6+6
Dodgers162833847526513111116+5113+2+2
Marlins1625945866806766970+171+2+2
Brewers1627187256636888685-187+1+1
Twins1627026966786847882+484+6+6
Mets16275277260760610199-297-4-4
Yankees16277980756156799107+8105+6+6
Athletics1625245687437706059-156-4-4
Phillies1627457476466858787092+5+5
Pirates1625785917908176257-558-4-4
Padres1626877056476608986-385-4-4
Mariners1626946906316239089-188-2-2
Giants1626947166646978183+284+3+3
Cardinals1627667726366379395+295+2+2
Rays1626336666136148687+183-3-3
Rangers1626737077247436877+976+8+8
Blue Jays1627677756766799291-190-2-2
Nationals1626256038638555556+158+3+3


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP16.6 runs2.44%-12.87 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP15.7 runs2.21%-11.9 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP16.15 runs2.33%-12.39 runs
Games Won from R/OR2.63 wins---0.17 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP2.93 wins---0.07 wins

Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season. Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 4.03%

(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)




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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 December 2022, at 2:01 pm Pacific Time.