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2021 Major-League Team-Performance Results


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Sunday, 19 September 2021.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Dodgers.667108
Giants.633103
Astros.624101
Blue Jays.59797
Rays.59396
Brewers.58495
White Sox.58495
Braves.55890
Yankees.54087
Athletics.53787
Cardinals.52785
Red Sox.52385
Padres.51784
Mets.50782
Phillies.50381
Reds.50081
Indians.48378
Nationals.47777
Marlins.46375
Rockies.46375
Twins.46075
Angels.44372
Royals.44372
Mariners.44372
Tigers.43370
Cubs.41367
Pirates.38362
Rangers.38362
Diamondbacks.36960
Orioles.36259


Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Braves .558 Brewers .584 Dodgers .667 Blue Jays .597 White Sox .584 Astros .624
Mets .507 Cardinals .527 Giants .633 Rays .593 Indians .483 Athletics .537
Phillies .503 Reds .500 Padres .517 Yankees .540 Twins .460 Angels .443
Nationals .477 Cubs .413 Rockies .463 Red Sox .523 Royals .443 Mariners .443
Marlins .463 Pirates .383 Diamondbacks .369 Orioles .362 Tigers .433 Rangers .383


Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.


Actual (not projected) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Braves .524 Brewers .611 Giants .647 Rays .613 White Sox .570 Astros .591
Phillies .510 Cardinals .534 Dodgers .640 Red Sox .570 Indians .497 Athletics .550
Mets .487 Reds .513 Padres .510 Blue Jays .564 Tigers .480 Mariners .537
Marlins .423 Cubs .447 Rockies .470 Yankees .553 Royals .450 Angels .483
Nationals .409 Pirates .376 Diamondbacks .322 Orioles .315 Twins .433 Rangers .369

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Diamondbacks1495936267918274856+855+7+8
Braves1476797095986117784+782+5+6
Orioles1496096188338944750+354+7+8
Red Sox1517377767047028682-479-7-8
Cubs1506126507457726763-462-5-5
White Sox1497017385805938589+487+2+2
Reds1506787206796977777075-2-2
Indians1476136546366667372-171-2-2
Rockies1496386826917257070069-1-1
Tigers1506156507067067269-365-7-8
Astros1497687965815958894+693+5+5
Royals1496186346977336765-266-1-1
Angels1496166626957377267-566-6-7
Dodgers15072475749550896101+5100+4+4
Marlins1495625876106316370+769+6+7
Brewers1496516925405569189-287-4-4
Twins1506636707227836564-169+4+4
Mets1505955925856127373076+3+3
Yankees1506526506016278377-681-2-2
Athletics1496606876106188282080-2-2
Phillies1496636886586987674-275-1-1
Pirates1495535497227545653-357+1+1
Padres1496426746196287679+377+1+1
Mariners1495886356626978068-1266-14-15
Giants1507207365325559794-395-2-2
Cardinals1486246285906257974-578-1-1
Rays1507157965836249292089-3-3
Rangers1495505747097505556+157+2+2
Blue Jays1497597856126088492+889+5+5
Nationals1496746647087476166+571+10+11


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP28.17 runs4.09%-26.9 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP26.57 runs3.82%-26.17 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP27.37 runs3.96%-26.54 runs
Games Won from R/OR3.67 wins---0.13 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP4.07 wins---0.07 wins

Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season. Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 4.07%

(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)




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This page was last modified on Monday, 20 September 2021, at 1:45 pm Pacific Time.