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2024 Major-League Team-Performance Results


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Thursday, 5 September 2024.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
TOP/TPP Projected
Current Wins
Actual
Current Wins
Phillies0.600978583
Dodgers0.586958384
Orioles0.582948381
Yankees0.571938180
Brewers0.564918081
Twins0.557907975
Braves0.557907976
Astros0.557907975
Mariners0.553907970
Mets0.550897876
Padres0.549897980
Diamondbacks0.539877779
Royals0.539877776
Red Sox0.536877670
Cubs0.529867572
Tigers0.511837370
Guardians0.507827180
Giants0.496807068
Cardinals0.493807071
Reds0.489796967
Athletics0.475776761
Blue Jays0.468766667
Rangers0.468766667
Rays0.464756569
Pirates0.450736365
Nationals0.436716162
Angels0.429696058
Marlins0.379615352
Rockies0.362595151
White Sox0.284464032


Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Phillies 0.600 Brewers 0.564 Dodgers 0.586 Orioles 0.582 Twins 0.557 Astros 0.557
Braves 0.557 Cubs 0.529 Padres 0.549 Yankees 0.571 Royals 0.539 Mariners 0.553
Mets 0.550 Cardinals 0.493 Diamondbacks 0.539 Red Sox 0.536 Tigers 0.511 Athletics 0.475
Nationals 0.436 Reds 0.489 Giants 0.496 Blue Jays 0.468 Guardians 0.507 Rangers 0.468
Marlins 0.379 Pirates 0.450 Rockies 0.362 Rays 0.464 White Sox 0.284 Angels 0.429


Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.


Actual (not projected) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Phillies 0.593 Brewers 0.579 Dodgers 0.600 Orioles 0.574 Guardians 0.571 Astros 0.536
Braves 0.543 Cubs 0.514 Padres 0.563 Yankees 0.571 Royals 0.539 Mariners 0.496
Mets 0.543 Cardinals 0.507 Diamondbacks 0.560 Red Sox 0.500 Twins 0.536 Rangers 0.475
Nationals 0.443 Reds 0.475 Giants 0.482 Rays 0.493 Tigers 0.496 Athletics 0.433
Marlins 0.371 Pirates 0.464 Rockies 0.362 Blue Jays 0.475 White Sox 0.227 Angels 0.414

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

Team Performance Stats Table

Team
(alphabetical by city)
Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Diamondbacks 142 715 765 659 671 79 79 0 76 -3 -3
Braves 141 607 601 538 533 76 78 +2 78 +2 +2
Orioles 142 701 709 586 608 81 81 0 83 +2 +2
Red Sox 141 681 667 628 669 70 70 0 76 +6 +7
Cubs 141 612 641 571 584 72 76 +4 75 +3 +3
White Sox 142 444 432 731 734 32 39 +7 41 +9 +10
Reds 142 603 638 615 613 67 74 +7 70 +3 +3
Guardians 141 584 639 571 559 80 79 -1 72 -8 -9
Rockies 142 580 599 786 811 51 52 +1 52 +1 +1
Tigers 142 566 597 550 577 70 73 +3 73 +3 +3
Astros 141 643 644 567 557 75 80 +5 79 +4 +5
Royals 142 623 675 573 582 76 81 +5 76 0 0
Angels 141 533 553 621 672 58 58 0 61 +3 +3
Dodgers 141 705 702 584 589 84 82 -2 83 -1 -1
Marlins 141 528 530 695 719 52 51 -1 53 +1 +1
Brewers 141 668 685 582 548 81 85 +4 79 -2 -2
Twins 141 649 666 576 619 75 75 0 78 +3 +3
Mets 141 663 676 593 616 76 76 0 78 +2 +2
Yankees 141 718 717 613 596 80 82 +2 81 +1 +1
Athletics 142 590 582 625 661 61 63 +2 67 +6 +7
Phillies 141 699 694 562 562 83 84 +1 84 +1 +1
Pirates 140 572 591 636 641 65 65 0 63 -2 -2
Padres 143 651 681 582 606 80 79 -1 79 -1 -1
Mariners 142 559 578 501 535 70 76 +6 78 +8 +9
Giants 142 598 602 607 623 68 69 +1 70 +2 +2
Cardinals 141 601 586 607 639 71 65 -6 70 -1 -1
Rays 141 555 545 604 606 69 64 -5 65 -4 -5
Rangers 142 574 593 612 632 67 67 0 67 0 0
Blue Jays 142 590 599 634 653 67 65 -2 66 -1 -1
Nationals 140 556 588 639 665 62 62 0 61 -1 -1


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

“Error” Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of “Error”
Percentage size
of “Error”
Cumulative “Error”
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP 18.5 runs 2.94% 18.5 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP 19.73 runs 3.15% -14.4 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP 19.12 runs 3.05% -13.99 runs
Games Won from R/OR 2.27 wins --- 1.07 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP 2.8 wins --- 1.2 wins

Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season. Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 4.24%

(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)




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This page was last modified on Saturday, 7 September 2024, at 7:53 am Pacific Time.