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The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.
“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)
| All Teams, by Performance |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team |
TOP/TPP Projected Win Percentage |
TOP/TPP Projected Seasonal Wins |
TOP/TPP Projected Current Wins |
Actual Current Wins |
| Dodgers | 0.599 | 97 | 97 | 98 |
| Orioles | 0.574 | 93 | 93 | 91 |
| Mariners | 0.574 | 93 | 93 | 85 |
| Yankees | 0.574 | 93 | 93 | 94 |
| Braves | 0.568 | 92 | 92 | 89 |
| Phillies | 0.562 | 91 | 91 | 95 |
| Padres | 0.556 | 90 | 90 | 93 |
| Mets | 0.556 | 90 | 90 | 89 |
| Astros | 0.553 | 90 | 89 | 88 |
| Brewers | 0.549 | 89 | 89 | 93 |
| Diamondbacks | 0.537 | 87 | 87 | 89 |
| Red Sox | 0.531 | 86 | 86 | 81 |
| Royals | 0.531 | 86 | 86 | 86 |
| Tigers | 0.525 | 85 | 85 | 86 |
| Cubs | 0.525 | 85 | 85 | 83 |
| Guardians | 0.516 | 84 | 83 | 92 |
| Twins | 0.512 | 83 | 83 | 82 |
| Cardinals | 0.500 | 81 | 81 | 83 |
| Giants | 0.494 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
| Reds | 0.475 | 77 | 77 | 77 |
| Rays | 0.475 | 77 | 77 | 80 |
| Blue Jays | 0.469 | 76 | 76 | 74 |
| Rangers | 0.457 | 74 | 74 | 78 |
| Athletics | 0.451 | 73 | 73 | 69 |
| Pirates | 0.451 | 73 | 73 | 76 |
| Nationals | 0.438 | 71 | 71 | 71 |
| Angels | 0.407 | 66 | 66 | 63 |
| Marlins | 0.383 | 62 | 62 | 62 |
| Rockies | 0.358 | 58 | 58 | 61 |
| White Sox | 0.302 | 49 | 49 | 41 |
This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.
| Projected (not actual) Standings | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National League | American League | ||||
| East | Central | West | East | Central | West |
| Braves 0.568 | Brewers 0.549 | Dodgers 0.599 | Orioles 0.574 | Royals 0.531 | Mariners 0.574 |
| Phillies 0.562 | Cubs 0.525 | Padres 0.556 | Yankees 0.574 | Tigers 0.525 | Astros 0.553 |
| Mets 0.556 | Cardinals 0.500 | Diamondbacks 0.537 | Red Sox 0.531 | Guardians 0.516 | Rangers 0.457 |
| Nationals 0.438 | Reds 0.475 | Giants 0.494 | Rays 0.475 | Twins 0.512 | Athletics 0.451 |
| Marlins 0.383 | Pirates 0.451 | Rockies 0.358 | Blue Jays 0.469 | White Sox 0.302 | Angels 0.407 |
This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.
| Actual (not projected) Standings | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National League | American League | ||||
| East | Central | West | East | Central | West |
| Phillies 0.586 | Brewers 0.574 | Dodgers 0.605 | Yankees 0.580 | Guardians 0.571 | Astros 0.547 |
| Braves 0.549 | Cubs 0.512 | Padres 0.574 | Orioles 0.562 | Tigers 0.531 | Mariners 0.525 |
| Mets 0.549 | Cardinals 0.512 | Diamondbacks 0.549 | Red Sox 0.500 | Royals 0.531 | Rangers 0.481 |
| Nationals 0.438 | Reds 0.475 | Giants 0.494 | Rays 0.494 | Twins 0.506 | Athletics 0.426 |
| Marlins 0.383 | Pirates 0.469 | Rockies 0.377 | Blue Jays 0.457 | White Sox 0.253 | Angels 0.389 |
(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)
The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).
The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.
| Team (alphabetical by city) |
Games Played |
Runs | Games Won | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scored | Yielded | Actual Wins |
Wins Projected From: | ||||||||
| TOP | Real | TPP | Real | R/OR | (Error) | TOP/TPP | (Error) | Seasonal | |||
| Diamondbacks | 162 | 838 | 886 | 770 | 788 | 89 | 90 | +1 | 87 | -2 | -2 |
| Braves | 162 | 716 | 704 | 614 | 607 | 89 | 92 | +3 | 92 | +3 | +3 |
| Orioles | 162 | 787 | 786 | 673 | 699 | 91 | 90 | -1 | 93 | +2 | +2 |
| Red Sox | 162 | 760 | 751 | 713 | 747 | 81 | 81 | 0 | 86 | +5 | +5 |
| Cubs | 162 | 706 | 736 | 667 | 669 | 83 | 88 | +5 | 85 | +2 | +2 |
| White Sox | 162 | 515 | 507 | 815 | 813 | 41 | 48 | +7 | 49 | +8 | +8 |
| Reds | 162 | 662 | 699 | 703 | 694 | 77 | 82 | +5 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| Guardians | 161 | 659 | 708 | 637 | 621 | 92 | 90 | -2 | 83 | -9 | -9 |
| Rockies | 162 | 661 | 682 | 912 | 929 | 61 | 59 | -2 | 58 | -3 | -3 |
| Tigers | 162 | 649 | 682 | 615 | 642 | 86 | 85 | -1 | 85 | -1 | -1 |
| Astros | 161 | 745 | 740 | 664 | 649 | 88 | 90 | +2 | 89 | +1 | +1 |
| Royals | 162 | 683 | 735 | 635 | 644 | 86 | 91 | +5 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| Angels | 162 | 613 | 635 | 749 | 797 | 63 | 64 | +1 | 66 | +3 | +3 |
| Dodgers | 162 | 841 | 842 | 677 | 686 | 98 | 96 | -2 | 97 | -1 | -1 |
| Marlins | 162 | 633 | 637 | 817 | 841 | 62 | 61 | -1 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| Brewers | 162 | 752 | 777 | 678 | 641 | 93 | 95 | +2 | 89 | -4 | -4 |
| Twins | 162 | 717 | 742 | 697 | 735 | 82 | 82 | 0 | 83 | +1 | +1 |
| Mets | 162 | 749 | 768 | 663 | 697 | 89 | 88 | -1 | 90 | +1 | +1 |
| Yankees | 162 | 808 | 815 | 686 | 668 | 94 | 96 | +2 | 93 | -1 | -1 |
| Athletics | 162 | 659 | 643 | 735 | 764 | 69 | 68 | -1 | 73 | +4 | +4 |
| Phillies | 162 | 779 | 784 | 678 | 671 | 95 | 92 | -3 | 91 | -4 | -4 |
| Pirates | 162 | 658 | 665 | 734 | 739 | 76 | 73 | -3 | 73 | -3 | -3 |
| Padres | 162 | 736 | 760 | 648 | 669 | 93 | 90 | -3 | 90 | -3 | -3 |
| Mariners | 162 | 669 | 676 | 568 | 607 | 85 | 89 | +4 | 93 | +8 | +8 |
| Giants | 162 | 680 | 693 | 692 | 699 | 80 | 80 | 0 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| Cardinals | 162 | 691 | 672 | 692 | 719 | 83 | 76 | -7 | 81 | -2 | -2 |
| Rays | 162 | 626 | 604 | 665 | 663 | 80 | 74 | -6 | 77 | -3 | -3 |
| Rangers | 162 | 660 | 683 | 725 | 738 | 78 | 75 | -3 | 74 | -4 | -4 |
| Blue Jays | 162 | 668 | 671 | 713 | 743 | 74 | 73 | -1 | 76 | +2 | +2 |
| Nationals | 162 | 633 | 660 | 728 | 764 | 71 | 70 | -1 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.
| “Error” Type (calculated vs. actual) |
Absolute size of “Error” |
Percentage size of “Error” |
Cumulative “Error” (+ and - cancel) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batting Runs, from TOP | 19.13 runs | 2.69% | 19.13 runs |
| Pitching Runs, from TPP | 20.2 runs | 2.84% | -12.67 runs |
| All Runs, from TOP/TPP | 19.67 runs | 2.77% | -12.84 runs |
| Games Won from R/OR | 2.5 wins | --- | -0.03 wins |
| Games Won from TPP/TOP | 2.67 wins | --- | 0 wins |
Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season. Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 3.98%
(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)
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