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2021 Major-League Team-Performance Results


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Monday, 21 June 2021.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Astros.667108
Dodgers.653106
Giants.639104
Rays.616100
White Sox.59797
Padres.57393
Mets.56792
Yankees.54989
Blue Jays.54388
Nationals.53687
Marlins.53587
Athletics.52785
Braves.50782
Red Sox.50081
Reds.49380
Brewers.47978
Cubs.47978
Phillies.47877
Twins.47276
Angels.47276
Cardinals.47276
Indians.47176
Royals.44372
Rockies.42569
Mariners.41968
Tigers.41768
Rangers.38963
Pirates.38663
Diamondbacks.37861
Orioles.37561


Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Mets .567 Reds .493 Dodgers .653 Rays .616 White Sox .597 Astros .667
Nationals .536 Cubs .479 Giants .639 Yankees .549 Twins .472 Athletics .527
Marlins .535 Brewers .479 Padres .573 Blue Jays .543 Indians .471 Angels .472
Braves .507 Cardinals .472 Rockies .425 Red Sox .500 Royals .443 Mariners .419
Phillies .478 Pirates .386 Diamondbacks .378 Orioles .375 Tigers .417 Rangers .389


Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.


Actual (not projected) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Mets .552 Cubs .548 Giants .639 Red Sox .597 White Sox .597 Astros .611
Phillies .493 Brewers .548 Dodgers .611 Rays .589 Indians .571 Athletics .595
Braves .479 Cardinals .500 Padres .560 Yankees .535 Royals .457 Mariners .514
Nationals .478 Reds .493 Rockies .411 Blue Jays .500 Twins .431 Angels .500
Marlins .437 Pirates .357 Diamondbacks .284 Orioles .319 Tigers .417 Rangers .361

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Diamondbacks742993143964172128+728+7+15
Braves713163353093373435+136+2+5
Orioles722792933633832327+427+4+9
Red Sox723343623393284339-436-7-16
Cubs732923143092964038-235-5-11
White Sox723273492642614345+24300
Reds713273513313643534-13500
Indians702703052862984036-433-7-16
Rockies733003223563793031+131+1+2
Tigers722772793373543028-23000
Astros723914092692894447+348+4+9
Royals702882963303363231-131-1-2
Angels723203573453693635-134-2-5
Dodgers713493732512764445+146+2+5
Marlins712672812472633138+738+7+16
Brewers732752912842984036-435-5-11
Twins723373303603793131034+3+7
Mets672402462102273736-138+1+2
Yankees712872812592813836-239+1+2
Athletics743223323043084440-439-5-11
Phillies692862952993063433-133-1-2
Pirates702492453163422525027+2+5
Padres743203342712644245+343+1+2
Mariners742683003163463832-631-7-15
Giants723353582472684645-14600
Cardinals722762872953193632-434-2-5
Rays733213532522804344+145+2+4
Rangers722722863443492629+328+2+5
Blue Jays703403513143083539+438+3+7
Nationals692762602572723333037+4+9


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP14.9 runs5.11%-13.17 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP16 runs5.65%-12.73 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP15.45 runs5.38%-12.95 runs
Games Won from R/OR2.27 wins---0.07 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP2.87 wins---0.07 wins

Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season (for a 162-game season). Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 4.45%.

(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 22 June 2021, at 1:38 pm Pacific Time.