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2023 Major-League Team-Performance Results

All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Saturday, 30 September 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.

Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team	TOP/TPP Projected Win Percentage	TOP/TPP Projected Seasonal Wins	TOP/TPP Projected Current Wins	Actual Current Wins
Braves	0.627	102	102	104
Dodgers	0.627	102	102	99
Rays	0.621	101	101	98
Rangers	0.609	99	99	90
Twins	0.578	94	94	87
Mariners	0.571	93	93	87
Phillies	0.571	93	93	89
Astros	0.565	92	92	89
Cubs	0.559	91	91	83
Padres	0.559	91	91	81
Blue Jays	0.553	90	90	89
Orioles	0.547	89	89	101
Brewers	0.528	86	86	91
Diamondbacks	0.503	81	81	84
Red Sox	0.491	80	80	77
Marlins	0.484	78	78	84
Mets	0.484	78	78	74
Yankees	0.484	78	78	82
Giants	0.484	78	78	79
Tigers	0.478	77	77	77
Angels	0.472	76	76	72
Reds	0.466	75	75	82
Guardians	0.460	75	75	76
Cardinals	0.453	73	73	70
Pirates	0.441	71	71	75
Royals	0.416	67	67	55
Nationals	0.391	63	63	70
White Sox	0.366	59	59	61
Rockies	0.360	58	58	58
Athletics	0.323	52	52	50

Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

Projected (not actual) Standings
National League			American League
East	Central	West	East	Central	West
Braves 0.627	Cubs 0.559	Dodgers 0.627	Rays 0.621	Twins 0.578	Rangers 0.609
Phillies 0.571	Brewers 0.528	Padres 0.559	Blue Jays 0.553	Tigers 0.478	Mariners 0.571
Marlins 0.484	Reds 0.466	Diamondbacks 0.503	Orioles 0.547	Guardians 0.460	Astros 0.565
Mets 0.484	Cardinals 0.453	Giants 0.484	Red Sox 0.491	Royals 0.416	Angels 0.472
Nationals 0.391	Pirates 0.441	Rockies 0.360	Yankees 0.484	White Sox 0.366	Athletics 0.323

Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.

Actual (not projected) Standings
National League			American League
East	Central	West	East	Central	West
Braves 0.646	Brewers 0.565	Dodgers 0.615	Orioles 0.627	Twins 0.540	Rangers 0.559
Phillies 0.553	Cubs 0.516	Diamondbacks 0.522	Rays 0.609	Tigers 0.478	Astros 0.553
Marlins 0.522	Reds 0.509	Padres 0.503	Blue Jays 0.553	Guardians 0.472	Mariners 0.540
Mets 0.460	Pirates 0.466	Giants 0.491	Yankees 0.509	White Sox 0.379	Angels 0.447
Nationals 0.435	Cardinals 0.435	Rockies 0.360	Red Sox 0.478	Royals 0.342	Athletics 0.311

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

Team Performance Stats Table

Team (alphabetical by city)	Games Played	Runs				Games Won
		Scored		Yielded		Actual Wins	Wins Projected From:
		TOP	Real	TPP	Real	Actual Wins	R/OR	(Error)	TOP/TPP	(Error)	Seasonal
Diamondbacks	162	727	746	725	753	84	80	-4	81	-3	-3
Braves	162	934	947	702	706	104	102	-2	102	-2	-2
Orioles	162	739	807	667	672	101	95	-6	89	-12	-12
Red Sox	162	759	772	778	775	77	81	+4	79	+2	+2
Cubs	162	793	819	696	719	83	91	+8	91	+8	+8
White Sox	162	614	641	830	839	61	61	0	59	-2	-2
Reds	162	774	783	834	817	82	78	-4	75	-7	-7
Guardians	162	660	662	716	692	76	78	+2	75	-1	-1
Rockies	162	683	721	936	955	58	60	+2	58	0	0
Tigers	162	653	661	685	738	77	73	-4	77	0	0
Astros	162	816	827	710	697	89	94	+5	91	+2	+2
Royals	162	669	676	805	857	55	64	+9	67	+12	+12
Angels	162	750	739	800	826	72	73	+1	76	+4	+4
Dodgers	162	887	906	668	697	99	100	+1	102	+3	+3
Marlins	162	689	668	712	720	84	75	-9	79	-5	-5
Brewers	162	683	728	644	647	91	90	-1	85	-6	-6
Twins	162	775	778	655	656	87	94	+7	93	+6	+6
Mets	162	712	717	741	722	74	80	+6	78	+4	+4
Yankees	162	656	673	681	693	82	79	-3	78	-4	-4
Athletics	162	600	585	895	917	50	49	-1	52	+2	+2
Phillies	162	801	796	688	714	89	89	0	92	+3	+3
Pirates	162	681	692	772	790	75	71	-4	72	-3	-3
Padres	162	758	752	666	647	81	92	+11	91	+10	+10
Mariners	162	755	758	643	659	87	91	+4	93	+6	+6
Giants	162	664	674	688	714	79	77	-2	78	-1	-1
Cardinals	162	760	719	836	826	70	71	+1	74	+4	+4
Rays	162	818	860	626	657	98	101	+3	101	+3	+3
Rangers	162	862	881	681	715	90	96	+6	98	+8	+8
Blue Jays	162	764	746	677	659	89	90	+1	90	+1	+1
Nationals	162	688	700	873	836	70	68	-2	63	-7	-7

Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

“Error” Type (calculated vs. actual)	Absolute size of “Error”	Percentage size of “Error”	Cumulative “Error” (+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP	18.13 runs	2.42%	18.13 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP	20.17 runs	2.7%	-9.5 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP	19.15 runs	2.56%	-9.92 runs
Games Won from R/OR	3.77 wins	---	0.97 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP	4.37 wins	---	0.83 wins

Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season. Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 3.87%

(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)

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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2023, at 2:55 pm Pacific Time.