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2021 Major-League Team-Performance Results


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Thursday, 6 May 2021.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

(The “Projected Seasonal Wins” number is based on a 162-game season; obviously, for 2020 that is not the case, but we didn’t want to proportion it to 60 games because not all teams will necessarily end up playing a full 60 games in their “season”.)
All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Dodgers.625101
White Sox.621101
Mets.615100
Giants.61399
Red Sox.59496
Astros.58194
Yankees.58194
Rays.57693
Padres.56391
Twins.53386
Blue Jays.53386
Marlins.53386
Reds.51784
Brewers.50081
Indians.50081
Cardinals.50081
Diamondbacks.48478
Nationals.48178
Royals.46776
Athletics.45574
Rangers.45574
Braves.45273
Orioles.45273
Phillies.43871
Mariners.43871
Angels.43370
Pirates.43370
Rockies.41968
Cubs.41968
Tigers.28146


Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Mets .615 Reds .517 Dodgers .625 Red Sox .594 White Sox .621 Astros .581
Marlins .533 Brewers .500 Giants .613 Yankees .581 Twins .533 Athletics .455
Nationals .481 Cardinals .500 Padres .563 Rays .576 Indians .500 Rangers .455
Braves .452 Pirates .433 Diamondbacks .484 Blue Jays .533 Royals .467 Mariners .438
Phillies .438 Cubs .419 Rockies .419 Orioles .452 Tigers .281 Angels .433


Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.


Actual (not projected) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Phillies .531 Cardinals .563 Giants .581 Red Sox .594 Indians .567 Athletics .576
Mets .500 Brewers .531 Padres .563 Rays .545 White Sox .552 Mariners .531
Braves .484 Cubs .484 Dodgers .531 Blue Jays .533 Royals .533 Astros .516
Marlins .467 Reds .483 Diamondbacks .484 Yankees .516 Twins .367 Rangers .485
Nationals .444 Pirates .433 Rockies .387 Orioles .484 Tigers .281 Angels .433

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

(We pro-rated to 162 even though in 2020 the schedule is much shorter; that is because teams will almost surely not end their seasons having all played the same numbers of games. Also note that the “Seasonal Errors” sizes look large right now even though they flow from rather small actual differences; such is usually the case with small games-played sample sizes.)

Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Diamondbacks31151154155164151501500
Braves311351431491511515014-1-5
Orioles311121201261261515014-1-5
Red Sox321561661291401918-11900
Cubs311361461601521515013-2-10
White Sox291321431011071618+218+2+11
Reds291391521371521415+115+1+6
Indians301151271181161716-115-2-11
Rockies311331511631671214+213+1+5
Tigers3299101160169990900
Astros311371511191231618+218+2+10
Royals301261331371471614-214-2-11
Angels301311351501671312-11300
Dodgers321541571141201720+320+3+15
Marlins301151271081071417+316+2+11
Brewers321231251191311715-216-1-5
Twins301341401281421115+416+5+27
Mets26998877961312-116+3+19
Yankees311271271031091618+218+2+10
Athletics331351391511521915-415-4-20
Phillies321191251361371715-214-3-15
Pirates301081061261351312-11300
Padres32130123111107181801800
Mariners321091271241341715-214-3-15
Giants311281381031081819+119+1+5
Cardinals321271451241301818016-2-10
Rays331391451191411817-119+1+5
Rangers331341351491471615-115-1-5
Blue Jays301311441191141618+21600
Nationals27103931041151211-113+1+6


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP8.3 runs6.26%-6.3 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP7.7 runs5.83%-6.23 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP8 runs6.05%-6.27 runs
Games Won from R/OR1.4 wins---0.07 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP1.53 wins---0.07 wins

Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season (for a 162-game season). Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 6.48%.

(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)




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This page was last modified on Friday, 7 May 2021, at 1:27 pm Pacific Time.