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The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site
Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.
You can get a site directory by clicking on the “hamburger” icon () in the upper right of this page.
Or you can search this site with Google (standard Google-search rules apply).
(Be aware that “sponsored” links to other sites will appear atop the actual results.)
Through games of Thursday, 25 April 2024.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.
The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.
Seasonal Win Projections
“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)
This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.
Projected (not actual) Standings
National League
American League
East
Central
West
East
Central
West
Braves 0.739
Brewers 0.625
Dodgers 0.667
Orioles 0.625
Guardians 0.600
Rangers 0.538
Phillies 0.577
Cubs 0.560
Diamondbacks 0.577
Red Sox 0.615
Royals 0.577
Mariners 0.520
Mets 0.542
Pirates 0.538
Padres 0.536
Yankees 0.577
Tigers 0.520
Angels 0.480
Nationals 0.417
Reds 0.520
Giants 0.500
Rays 0.423
Twins 0.458
Astros 0.462
Marlins 0.269
Cardinals 0.400
Rockies 0.346
Blue Jays 0.423
White Sox 0.200
Athletics 0.346
Actual Standings
This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.
The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).
The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.
These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.
“Error” Type (calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size of “Error”
Percentage size of “Error”
Cumulative “Error” (+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP
6.3 runs
5.69%
6.3 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP
6.53 runs
6.03%
-2.73 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP
6.42 runs
5.86%
-2.68 runs
Games Won from R/OR
1.17 wins
---
-0.1 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP
1.4 wins
---
0.13 wins
Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months.
Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season. Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 10.1%
(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)
) in the upper right of this page.