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Reds 2020 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2020 Reds Projected Batting

Through games of Tuesday, 29 September 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.031)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Shogo Akiyama, actual: 183 155 38 6 1 0 46 25 0 0 2 1 693
Shogo Akiyama, projected: 189 160 39 6 1 0 47 26 0 0 2 1 674
Aristides Aquino, actual: 56 47 8 1 0 2 15 6 0 0 3 0 588
Aristides Aquino, projected: 58 52 12 2 0 4 27 5 0 0 1 0 836
Tucker Barnhart, actual: 110 98 20 3 0 5 38 12 0 0 0 0 597
Tucker Barnhart, projected: 113 100 25 5 0 2 37 11 1 1 1 0 607
Curt Casali, actual: 93 76 17 3 0 6 38 14 0 0 3 0 985
Curt Casali, projected: 96 84 19 4 0 4 35 10 1 1 1 0 733
Nicholas Castellanos, actual: 242 218 49 11 2 14 106 19 0 1 4 0 728
Nicholas Castellanos, projected: 249 230 63 15 2 9 108 16 0 2 2 0 817
Christian Colon, actual: 24 23 3 1 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 97
Christian Colon, projected: 25 22 6 1 0 0 7 2 0 0 0 0 508
Matt Davidson, actual: 47 43 7 1 0 3 17 4 0 0 0 0 487
Matt Davidson, projected: 48 44 10 2 0 2 19 4 0 0 1 0 621
Phil Ervin, actual: 42 35 3 0 0 0 3 6 0 0 1 0 180
Phil Ervin, projected: 43 38 10 2 1 1 16 4 0 0 1 0 787
Kyle Farmer, actual: 70 64 17 3 0 0 20 5 0 0 1 0 634
Kyle Farmer, projected: 72 66 16 3 0 2 25 4 0 0 1 0 632
Freddy Galvis, actual: 159 141 31 5 0 7 57 13 0 0 5 0 632
Freddy Galvis, projected: 164 152 38 7 1 4 59 9 1 1 1 0 575
José García, actual: 68 67 13 0 0 0 13 1 0 0 0 0 166
José García, projected: 70 69 13 0 0 0 13 1 0 0 0 0 154
Brian Goodwin, actual: 55 49 8 2 0 2 16 5 0 1 0 0 497
Brian Goodwin, projected: 57 51 13 3 0 2 23 5 0 0 0 0 755
Travis Jankowski, actual: 17 15 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 43
Travis Jankowski, projected: 18 16 4 1 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 547
Michael Lorenzen, actual: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Michael Lorenzen, projected: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mike Moustakas, actual: 163 139 32 9 0 8 65 18 0 2 4 0 819
Mike Moustakas, projected: 168 153 38 8 0 7 68 12 0 1 2 0 709
Mark Payton, actual: 20 18 3 1 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 247
Mark Payton, projected: 21 19 3 1 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 218
Nick Senzel, actual: 78 70 13 6 0 2 25 6 0 1 0 1 442
Nick Senzel, projected: 80 73 18 4 1 2 30 6 0 0 0 1 695
Tyler Stephenson, actual: 20 17 5 0 0 2 11 2 0 0 1 0 1451
Tyler Stephenson, projected: 21 18 5 0 0 2 11 2 0 0 1 0 1301
Eugenio Suarez, actual: 231 198 40 8 0 15 93 30 0 1 2 0 793
Eugenio Suarez, projected: 238 209 55 9 1 11 99 23 1 2 3 0 883
Josh VanMeter, actual: 38 34 2 1 0 1 6 3 0 0 1 0 197
Josh VanMeter, projected: 39 34 7 2 0 1 13 4 0 0 0 0 551
Joey Votto, actual: 223 186 42 8 0 11 83 37 0 0 0 0 849
Joey Votto, projected: 230 190 58 12 1 9 98 37 0 1 2 0 1270
Jesse Winker, actual: 183 149 38 7 0 12 81 28 0 1 5 0 1183
Jesse Winker, projected: 189 162 45 9 0 8 77 24 0 0 3 0 995
Reds, Actual: 2123 1842 390 76 3 90 742 239 0 7 33 2 682
Reds, Projected: 2189 1943 497 96 8 70 821 209 4 9 22 2 761
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.212 0.256
Slugging Average: 0.403 0.423
Walks (per PA): 0.113 0.095
SOs (per PA): 0.252 0.222
On-Base Average: 0.312 0.333
Power Factor: 1.903 1.652
OPS: 0.715 0.756
TOP Runs (to date): 243 269

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -26 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 30 September 2020, at 1:20 pm Pacific Time.