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Reds 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Reds Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.005)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Harrison Bader, actual: 34 31 5 1 0 0 6 3 0 0 0 0 217
Harrison Bader, projected: 34 31 7 1 0 1 12 2 0 0 1 0 601
Jose Barrero, actual: 149 133 29 8 0 2 43 15 0 1 0 0 510
Jose Barrero, projected: 150 139 26 5 0 1 36 9 0 0 1 0 276
Will Benson, actual: 329 287 79 15 8 11 143 40 0 1 1 0 1066
Will Benson, projected: 331 290 75 14 7 9 131 36 1 1 3 0 905
Curt Casali, actual: 96 80 14 2 0 0 16 11 3 0 2 0 309
Curt Casali, projected: 96 84 18 4 0 3 32 10 1 1 1 0 648
Elly De La Cruz, actual: 427 388 91 15 7 13 159 35 1 1 2 0 674
Elly De La Cruz, projected: 429 390 91 15 7 13 160 35 1 1 2 0 667
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, actual: 241 222 60 7 0 13 106 14 0 0 5 0 841
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, projected: 242 223 60 7 0 13 107 14 0 0 5 0 833
Stuart Fairchild, actual: 255 219 50 16 2 5 85 25 3 2 6 0 685
Stuart Fairchild, projected: 256 222 51 14 2 7 89 23 2 1 8 0 696
Jake Fraley, actual: 380 336 86 18 0 15 149 37 0 1 6 0 848
Jake Fraley, projected: 382 330 78 15 0 14 137 44 0 2 5 0 787
TJ Friedl, actual: 556 488 136 22 8 18 228 47 8 3 10 0 968
TJ Friedl, projected: 559 489 131 22 9 18 223 47 5 7 11 0 923
TJ Hopkins, actual: 44 41 7 0 0 0 7 2 0 0 1 0 193
TJ Hopkins, projected: 44 41 7 0 0 0 7 2 0 0 1 0 193
Jonathan India, actual: 529 454 111 23 0 17 185 52 0 7 16 0 806
Jonathan India, projected: 532 458 117 24 1 16 192 51 0 4 18 0 841
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Alejo López, actual: 2 2 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3154
Alejo López, projected: 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Luke Maile, actual: 199 179 42 10 0 6 70 14 1 0 5 0 597
Luke Maile, projected: 200 182 39 10 0 3 59 14 1 1 2 0 438
Noelvi Marté, actual: 123 114 36 7 0 3 52 8 0 0 1 0 965
Noelvi Marté, projected: 124 115 36 7 0 3 52 8 0 0 1 0 945
Nick Martini, actual: 79 72 19 3 1 6 42 5 0 0 2 0 989
Nick Martini, projected: 79 68 18 3 1 2 28 9 0 1 2 0 957
Matt McLain, actual: 403 365 106 23 4 16 185 31 0 0 7 0 1006
Matt McLain, projected: 405 367 107 23 4 16 186 31 0 0 7 0 1003
Wil Myers, actual: 141 127 24 3 0 3 36 12 1 1 0 0 382
Wil Myers, projected: 142 126 32 7 0 5 55 14 0 1 1 0 778
Kevin Newman, actual: 253 225 57 16 0 3 82 17 2 5 4 0 637
Kevin Newman, projected: 254 235 61 11 1 3 84 14 2 2 2 0 586
Henry Ramos, actual: 86 74 18 3 1 0 23 11 0 0 1 0 612
Henry Ramos, projected: 86 76 17 3 1 1 23 9 0 1 1 0 577
Hunter Renfroe, actual: 44 39 5 0 0 1 8 5 0 0 0 0 284
Hunter Renfroe, projected: 44 40 10 2 0 2 19 3 0 0 0 0 716
Matt Reynolds, actual: 5 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 180
Matt Reynolds, projected: 5 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 361
Nick Senzel, actual: 330 301 71 10 0 13 120 26 0 2 1 0 665
Nick Senzel, projected: 332 299 71 13 1 8 110 25 0 1 2 4 617
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Michael Siani, actual: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Michael Siani, projected: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Spencer Steer, actual: 665 582 158 37 3 23 270 68 0 4 11 0 935
Spencer Steer, projected: 668 585 154 36 3 22 260 68 0 3 11 0 869
Tyler Stephenson, actual: 517 465 113 20 2 13 176 47 0 1 4 0 632
Tyler Stephenson, projected: 520 462 126 23 1 14 194 47 0 4 6 0 800
Jason Vosler, actual: 65 62 10 2 1 3 23 3 0 0 0 0 408
Jason Vosler, projected: 65 59 12 3 1 3 24 5 0 1 1 0 609
Joey Votto, actual: 242 208 42 6 0 14 90 27 0 0 7 0 749
Joey Votto, projected: 243 202 59 13 1 10 103 38 0 1 2 0 1205
Reds, Actual: 6195 5499 1371 268 37 198 2307 556 19 29 92 0 767
Reds, Projected: 6225 5521 1404 275 40 187 2325 558 13 33 94 4 777
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.249 0.254
Slugging Average: 0.420 0.421
Walks (per PA): 0.090 0.090
SOs (per PA): 0.242 0.240
On-Base Average: 0.327 0.331
Power Factor: 1.683 1.656
OPS: 0.746 0.752
TOP Runs (to date): 783 782

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 1 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.