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Guardians 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Guardians Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.01)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Gabriel Arias, actual: 345 315 66 15 0 10 111 28 0 1 1 0 480
Gabriel Arias, projected: 348 314 65 14 1 10 109 31 1 1 2 0 505
Josh Bell, actual: 393 347 81 19 0 11 133 43 0 2 1 0 642
Josh Bell, projected: 397 345 90 18 2 15 156 46 0 3 2 0 851
Will Brennan, actual: 455 432 115 24 0 5 154 16 0 2 5 0 577
Will Brennan, projected: 459 436 119 23 1 6 161 17 0 2 6 0 627
Kole Calhoun, actual: 174 157 34 7 0 6 59 13 0 2 2 0 568
Kole Calhoun, projected: 176 157 38 7 1 6 65 16 0 1 2 0 702
Zack Collins, actual: 6 4 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 4104
Zack Collins, projected: 6 5 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 459
Tyler Freeman, actual: 168 153 37 7 0 4 56 10 2 1 2 0 579
Tyler Freeman, projected: 170 154 37 7 0 3 52 9 1 1 4 0 561
David Fry, actual: 113 101 24 6 0 4 42 8 0 0 4 0 700
David Fry, projected: 114 102 24 6 0 4 42 8 0 0 4 0 686
Cam Gallagher, actual: 149 143 18 6 0 0 24 4 0 1 1 0 88
Cam Gallagher, projected: 150 137 29 8 0 2 42 9 2 1 1 0 409
Andrés Giménez, actual: 616 557 140 27 5 15 222 32 4 3 20 0 685
Andrés Giménez, projected: 622 556 147 27 4 16 232 34 4 4 24 0 784
Oscar Gonzalez, actual: 180 173 37 7 2 2 54 5 0 1 1 0 381
Oscar Gonzalez, projected: 182 173 47 11 1 4 71 6 0 1 1 0 649
Eric Haase, actual: 11 10 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 264
Eric Haase, projected: 11 10 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 311
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Steven Kwan, actual: 718 638 171 36 7 5 236 70 1 6 3 0 744
Steven Kwan, projected: 725 642 181 33 7 6 247 71 2 5 5 0 818
Ramón Laureano, actual: 158 136 33 8 1 3 52 16 0 1 5 0 735
Ramón Laureano, projected: 160 142 35 8 1 6 61 12 0 1 4 0 766
Bo Naylor, actual: 230 198 47 13 0 11 93 30 0 1 1 0 874
Bo Naylor, projected: 232 201 46 13 0 11 91 29 0 1 1 0 817
Josh Naylor, actual: 495 452 139 31 0 17 221 33 0 7 3 0 947
Josh Naylor, projected: 500 456 123 28 0 16 200 35 0 4 4 1 757
José Ramírez, actual: 691 611 172 36 5 24 290 73 0 6 1 0 941
José Ramírez, projected: 698 614 171 42 5 28 307 71 2 6 5 0 979
Brayan Rocchio, actual: 86 81 20 6 0 0 26 4 0 1 0 0 428
Brayan Rocchio, projected: 87 82 20 6 0 0 26 4 0 1 0 0 415
Amed Rosario, actual: 412 385 102 19 6 3 142 22 0 3 2 0 597
Amed Rosario, projected: 416 392 107 17 5 7 157 19 1 2 2 0 644
Myles Straw, actual: 518 462 110 18 3 1 137 42 6 6 2 0 504
Myles Straw, projected: 523 466 114 20 2 2 144 50 3 4 1 0 591
José Tena, actual: 34 31 7 2 0 0 9 3 0 0 0 0 440
José Tena, projected: 34 31 7 2 0 0 9 3 0 0 0 0 440
Meibrys Viloria, actual: 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Meibrys Viloria, projected: 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 319
Mike Zunino, actual: 140 124 22 7 0 3 38 15 0 0 1 0 409
Mike Zunino, projected: 141 128 25 6 0 7 52 10 0 1 3 0 591
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Guardians, Actual: 6096 5513 1379 294 29 124 2103 471 13 44 55 0 654
Guardians, Projected: 6155 5547 1429 296 30 149 2231 482 16 39 71 1 714
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.250 0.258
Slugging Average: 0.381 0.402
Walks (per PA): 0.077 0.078
SOs (per PA): 0.187 0.186
On-Base Average: 0.313 0.323
Power Factor: 1.525 1.561
OPS: 0.695 0.725
TOP Runs (to date): 662 718

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -56 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.