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Mets 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Mets Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.017)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Abraham Almonte, actual: 16 15 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 48
Abraham Almonte, projected: 16 15 3 1 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 308
Pete Alonso, actual: 658 568 123 21 2 46 286 65 0 4 21 0 834
Pete Alonso, projected: 669 581 146 26 2 44 307 66 0 5 17 0 952
Francisco Álvarez, actual: 423 382 80 12 0 25 167 34 0 1 6 0 640
Francisco Álvarez, projected: 430 388 81 13 0 26 170 35 0 1 6 0 645
Jonathan Araúz, actual: 66 59 8 0 0 3 17 5 2 0 0 0 342
Jonathan Araúz, projected: 67 60 11 1 0 2 18 6 1 0 0 0 402
Brett Baty, actual: 389 353 75 12 0 9 114 29 1 1 2 3 483
Brett Baty, projected: 395 359 75 11 0 10 117 28 1 1 3 4 483
Mark Canha, actual: 303 257 63 15 1 6 98 32 0 5 9 0 780
Mark Canha, projected: 308 264 66 14 1 10 112 31 0 2 11 0 852
Eduardo Escobar, actual: 120 110 26 3 2 4 45 8 1 1 0 0 602
Eduardo Escobar, projected: 122 112 28 6 1 4 48 8 0 1 1 0 692
Luis Guillorme, actual: 120 107 24 6 1 1 35 10 2 1 0 0 425
Luis Guillorme, projected: 122 107 28 5 0 1 36 13 1 0 0 0 601
Francisco Lindor, actual: 687 602 153 33 2 31 283 66 0 7 12 0 910
Francisco Lindor, projected: 698 621 170 34 3 28 294 60 4 7 7 0 896
Tim Locastro, actual: 67 56 13 3 0 2 22 3 2 0 6 0 835
Tim Locastro, projected: 68 59 13 3 0 1 20 4 0 0 5 0 673
Starling Marte, actual: 341 315 78 7 1 5 102 16 2 0 8 0 543
Starling Marte, projected: 347 317 91 16 3 9 141 18 1 1 10 0 857
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Ronny Mauricio, actual: 108 101 25 4 0 2 35 7 0 0 0 0 584
Ronny Mauricio, projected: 110 103 25 4 0 2 36 7 0 0 0 0 559
Jeff McNeil, actual: 648 585 158 25 4 10 221 39 3 3 18 0 732
Jeff McNeil, projected: 659 594 177 36 3 14 260 43 2 3 17 0 913
Danny Mendick, actual: 69 65 12 3 0 1 18 4 0 0 0 0 311
Danny Mendick, projected: 70 64 16 2 0 1 23 5 0 0 0 0 522
Omar Narváez, actual: 146 128 27 5 0 2 38 14 1 3 0 0 503
Omar Narváez, projected: 148 130 33 5 0 4 49 16 0 1 1 0 744
Tomás Nido, actual: 61 56 7 0 0 0 7 2 2 1 0 0 63
Tomás Nido, projected: 62 58 12 2 0 1 18 3 1 0 0 0 316
Brandon Nimmo, actual: 682 592 162 30 6 24 276 74 1 4 11 0 966
Brandon Nimmo, projected: 693 583 157 31 7 20 261 90 2 3 15 0 997
Rafael Ortega, actual: 136 114 25 3 0 1 31 20 1 0 1 0 623
Rafael Ortega, projected: 138 122 30 5 0 2 43 14 1 1 1 0 629
Michael Pérez, actual: 8 8 4 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 2386
Michael Pérez, projected: 8 7 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 211
Tommy Pham, actual: 264 231 62 15 1 10 109 29 0 3 1 0 969
Tommy Pham, projected: 268 233 60 11 1 9 101 31 0 2 3 0 841
Gary Sánchez, actual: 7 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 287
Gary Sánchez, projected: 7 6 1 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 302
DJ Stewart, actual: 185 160 38 8 0 11 79 15 1 1 7 1 867
DJ Stewart, projected: 188 160 35 7 0 9 68 23 1 1 4 0 776
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Mark Vientos, actual: 233 218 46 5 1 9 80 10 0 2 3 0 500
Mark Vientos, projected: 237 220 45 5 1 9 78 13 0 2 3 0 494
Daniel Vogelbach, actual: 319 275 64 8 0 13 111 42 0 0 2 0 743
Daniel Vogelbach, projected: 324 273 60 10 0 14 112 50 0 1 1 0 776
Mets, Actual: 6056 5363 1275 220 21 215 2182 525 19 38 107 4 713
Mets, Projected: 6154 5436 1364 248 22 220 2322 567 15 32 105 4 775
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.238 0.251
Slugging Average: 0.407 0.427
Walks (per PA): 0.087 0.092
SOs (per PA): 0.220 0.213
On-Base Average: 0.316 0.332
Power Factor: 1.711 1.702
OPS: 0.723 0.759
TOP Runs (to date): 717 772

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -55 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.