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Phillies 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Phillies Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.996)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Alec Bohm, actual: 611 558 153 31 0 20 244 42 0 6 5 0 743
Alec Bohm, projected: 609 557 154 27 1 15 226 40 0 7 4 0 729
Nick Castellanos, actual: 671 626 170 37 2 29 298 36 0 6 3 0 783
Nick Castellanos, projected: 668 616 170 40 4 25 293 42 0 5 5 0 816
Rodolfo Castro, actual: 32 30 3 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 66
Rodolfo Castro, projected: 32 29 6 1 0 1 11 3 0 0 0 0 485
Jake Cave, actual: 203 184 39 8 1 5 64 15 1 2 1 0 506
Jake Cave, projected: 202 184 43 8 2 6 74 13 1 1 3 0 630
Kody Clemens, actual: 148 139 32 7 0 4 51 8 0 0 1 0 521
Kody Clemens, projected: 147 137 26 6 0 5 47 9 0 1 1 0 444
Drew Ellis, actual: 29 23 5 0 0 2 11 6 0 0 0 0 1065
Drew Ellis, projected: 29 24 4 1 0 1 6 4 0 0 1 0 539
Dalton Guthrie, actual: 28 24 4 1 0 0 5 3 0 0 1 0 331
Dalton Guthrie, projected: 28 22 5 0 0 0 7 4 0 0 1 0 587
Darick Hall, actual: 56 54 9 1 0 1 13 2 0 0 0 0 215
Darick Hall, projected: 56 54 12 3 0 3 24 2 0 0 0 0 558
Bryce Harper, actual: 546 457 134 29 1 21 228 80 0 4 5 0 1151
Bryce Harper, projected: 544 454 128 28 2 26 236 81 1 5 4 0 1142
Josh Harrison, actual: 114 103 21 3 0 2 30 3 0 2 6 0 441
Josh Harrison, projected: 114 104 28 6 1 2 41 5 1 1 3 0 690
Brandon Marsh, actual: 472 404 112 25 6 12 185 59 1 4 4 0 1009
Brandon Marsh, projected: 470 419 109 22 5 10 170 42 2 3 4 0 757
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Cristian Pache, actual: 95 84 20 7 1 2 35 10 1 0 0 0 636
Cristian Pache, projected: 95 87 15 3 1 1 24 6 1 0 0 0 276
J.T. Realmuto, actual: 540 489 123 28 5 20 221 35 0 5 9 2 768
J.T. Realmuto, projected: 538 490 133 28 4 18 223 36 0 4 8 1 824
Johan Rojas, actual: 164 149 45 9 2 2 64 5 6 0 4 0 828
Johan Rojas, projected: 163 148 45 9 2 2 64 5 6 0 4 0 841
Kyle Schwarber, actual: 720 585 115 19 1 47 277 126 0 3 6 0 891
Kyle Schwarber, projected: 717 609 138 23 2 44 299 99 0 3 6 0 898
Edmundo Sosa, actual: 300 279 70 15 2 10 119 8 2 1 9 1 606
Edmundo Sosa, projected: 299 271 68 12 4 6 107 12 1 1 12 1 631
Bryson Stott, actual: 640 585 164 32 2 15 245 39 1 8 7 0 823
Bryson Stott, projected: 638 583 152 29 2 14 229 43 1 5 5 0 703
Garrett Stubbs, actual: 125 113 23 4 1 1 32 9 1 0 2 0 425
Garrett Stubbs, projected: 125 111 24 5 1 2 37 11 2 0 1 0 516
Trea Turner, actual: 691 639 170 35 5 26 293 45 0 1 6 0 810
Trea Turner, projected: 688 632 187 35 6 23 305 49 0 3 5 0 972
Weston Wilson, actual: 22 16 5 0 0 1 8 6 0 0 0 0 1917
Weston Wilson, projected: 22 16 5 0 0 1 8 6 0 0 0 0 1917
Phillies, Actual: 6207 5541 1417 291 29 220 2426 539 13 42 69 3 795
Phillies, Projected: 6184 5547 1452 286 37 205 2431 512 16 39 67 2 792
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.256 0.262
Slugging Average: 0.438 0.438
Walks (per PA): 0.087 0.083
SOs (per PA): 0.239 0.231
On-Base Average: 0.327 0.329
Power Factor: 1.712 1.674
OPS: 0.765 0.768
TOP Runs (to date): 796 793

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 3 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.