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Guardians 2025 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2025 Guardians Projected Pitching

Through games of Tuesday, 17 June 2025.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.982)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Tanner Bibee, actual: 14 334 302 72 12 1 14 128 26 36 242 0 2 4 2 1 7 698
Tanner Bibee, projected: 14 328 299 69 16 1 10 117 23 31 242 0 2 3 3 0 4 613
Luis Ortiz, actual: 14 331 289 72 10 1 10 114 39 40 227 0 2 1 2 0 11 796
Luis Ortiz, projected: 14 325 286 69 11 1 10 112 33 37 227 0 3 3 3 1 6 741
Gavin Williams, actual: 14 303 262 63 10 0 10 103 39 34 208 0 1 1 2 0 2 754
Gavin Williams, projected: 14 297 260 61 13 2 8 100 33 33 208 0 2 2 2 0 4 729
Logan Allen, actual: 13 271 235 64 12 0 7 97 28 32 183 1 4 2 3 0 5 860
Logan Allen, projected: 13 266 236 65 14 1 10 110 25 32 183 1 2 2 2 0 2 872
Ben Lively, actual: 9 178 163 38 8 0 6 64 15 16 134 0 0 0 0 0 7 568
Ben Lively, projected: 9 175 159 41 8 1 7 72 13 21 134 0 1 2 1 0 3 738
Jakob Junis, actual: 29 142 129 39 3 1 3 53 9 16 97 1 1 2 0 1 4 813
Jakob Junis, projected: 29 139 127 34 7 1 5 57 8 17 97 0 1 2 1 0 2 799
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Cade Smith, actual: 33 132 118 24 9 0 0 33 10 10 96 0 2 2 0 1 1 420
Cade Smith, projected: 33 130 119 23 9 0 0 33 8 8 96 0 1 2 0 0 2 329
Emmanuel Clase, actual: 32 139 123 37 7 1 1 49 9 15 92 1 3 3 2 2 6 927
Emmanuel Clase, projected: 32 136 127 26 4 0 1 35 7 11 92 1 1 1 2 1 3 425
Slade Cecconi, actual: 6 132 118 30 7 0 6 55 11 14 91 1 0 2 0 1 1 806
Slade Cecconi, projected: 6 130 119 33 8 0 6 60 7 19 91 0 1 2 0 0 2 864
Hunter Gaddis, actual: 32 125 109 27 5 0 3 41 13 7 88 2 0 1 0 2 3 627
Hunter Gaddis, projected: 32 123 111 25 6 1 4 44 9 12 88 0 1 2 0 1 1 628
Joey Cantillo, actual: 21 123 109 25 7 0 5 47 14 17 85 0 0 0 2 0 3 806
Joey Cantillo, projected: 21 121 108 25 8 0 5 47 12 16 85 0 0 0 2 0 2 748
Kolby Allard, actual: 12 115 108 31 8 0 1 42 4 8 83 1 2 0 1 1 3 632
Kolby Allard, projected: 12 113 103 28 4 1 5 48 8 17 83 0 1 1 1 0 1 851
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Tim Herrin, actual: 30 107 87 20 4 0 3 33 16 11 71 0 0 4 2 0 1 830
Tim Herrin, projected: 30 105 90 19 4 0 2 28 11 10 71 1 0 2 1 0 2 562
Matt Festa, actual: 18 71 65 13 2 0 0 15 5 7 54 0 0 1 0 0 3 326
Matt Festa, projected: 18 70 61 14 3 1 2 25 7 9 54 0 0 1 0 0 2 648
Paul Sewald, actual: 14 48 46 13 2 0 3 24 2 8 35 0 0 0 0 0 3 845
Paul Sewald, projected: 14 47 42 9 2 0 2 17 4 6 35 0 0 0 0 0 1 660
Nic Enright, actual: 8 40 34 5 0 0 1 8 5 3 30 0 0 1 0 0 0 384
Nic Enright, projected: 8 39 33 5 0 0 1 8 5 3 30 0 0 1 0 0 0 385
Triston McKenzie, actual: 4 30 22 7 2 0 1 12 7 7 17 0 1 0 0 0 0 1610
Triston McKenzie, projected: 4 29 26 5 1 0 1 10 3 3 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 608
Zak Kent, actual: 3 23 20 7 1 0 0 8 3 3 15 0 0 0 0 0 1 947
Zak Kent, projected: 3 23 20 7 1 0 0 8 3 3 15 0 0 0 0 0 1 918
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Doug Nikhazy, actual: 1 20 14 5 2 1 0 9 6 6 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 2993
Doug Nikhazy, projected: 1 20 14 5 2 1 0 9 6 6 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 3078
Cody Bolton, actual: 1 10 10 4 1 0 0 5 0 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1305
Cody Bolton, projected: 1 10 8 3 1 0 0 4 1 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 810
Will Wilson, actual: 1 8 8 2 1 0 1 6 0 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 999
Will Wilson, projected: 1 8 8 2 1 0 1 6 0 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 972
Andrew Walters, actual: 2 6 6 2 1 0 1 6 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1656
Andrew Walters, projected: 2 6 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Hedges, actual: 1 6 5 2 1 0 0 3 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2136
Austin Hedges, projected: 1 6 5 1 0 0 0 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 324
Guardians, Actual: 71 2694 2382 602 115 5 76 955 262 298 1876 7 18 24 16 9 62 325
Guardians, Projected: 71 2646 2366 569 123 11 80 954 227 298 1876 3 16 26 18 3 39 304


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.253 0.240
Slugging Average: 0.401 0.403
Walks (per PA): 0.097 0.086
SOs (per PA): 0.221 0.226
On-Base Average: 0.331 0.312
Power Factor: 1.586 1.677
OPS: 0.732 0.715
Runs Calculated from Actual Stats: 325
Runs Calculated from Projected Stats: 304
Actual Runs Scored: 298

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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 18 June 2025, at 4:01 am Pacific Time.