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Cardinals 2026 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2026 Cardinals Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 27 September 2026.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.994)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Scott Blewett, actual: 1 9 7 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 521
Scott Blewett, projected: 1 9 8 2 0 0 0 3 1 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 486
Justin Bruihl, actual: 73 346 296 75 18 0 4 105 28 41 233 3 7 12 0 2 10 746
Justin Bruihl, projected: 73 344 297 78 16 0 7 115 28 44 233 3 5 10 0 6 8 739
Hunter Dobbins, actual: 11 231 204 49 9 1 7 81 24 24 162 1 0 2 1 0 0 683
Hunter Dobbins, projected: 11 230 208 52 11 1 6 83 19 25 162 0 0 2 2 0 0 663
Caleb Ferguson, actual: 9 41 33 11 3 0 2 20 8 8 25 0 0 0 0 0 1 1411
Caleb Ferguson, projected: 9 41 36 9 2 0 1 13 4 5 25 0 0 1 0 0 1 828
Ryan Fernandez, actual: 17 100 88 19 7 0 2 32 11 14 69 0 1 0 2 0 3 720
Ryan Fernandez, projected: 17 99 86 21 4 1 2 34 11 14 69 0 1 1 1 1 3 753
Luis Gastelum, actual: 34 152 137 34 7 1 6 61 12 23 110 0 1 2 0 0 4 719
Luis Gastelum, projected: 34 151 136 34 7 1 6 61 12 23 110 0 1 2 0 0 4 724
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Gordon Graceffo, actual: 62 326 279 53 16 0 5 84 36 28 243 1 6 3 0 3 9 466
Gordon Graceffo, projected: 62 324 284 65 20 3 5 105 30 38 243 1 6 3 2 2 6 601
Cooper Hjerpe, actual: 4 55 43 7 2 0 0 9 9 6 37 0 1 2 0 0 0 509
Cooper Hjerpe, projected: 4 55 43 7 2 0 0 9 9 6 37 0 1 2 0 0 0 527
Kyle Leahy, actual: 30 596 546 147 34 1 15 228 41 58 420 2 1 5 1 0 9 704
Kyle Leahy, projected: 30 592 539 138 32 1 13 209 43 59 420 1 5 4 1 1 6 643
Matthew Liberatore, actual: 31 674 607 173 28 1 28 287 55 96 465 1 6 5 5 0 24 907
Matthew Liberatore, projected: 31 670 602 165 36 2 22 270 53 90 465 3 7 5 4 1 19 836
Quinn Mathews, actual: 9 211 185 48 8 0 5 71 20 21 148 2 3 1 0 0 2 687
Quinn Mathews, projected: 9 210 184 48 8 0 5 71 20 21 148 2 3 1 0 0 2 684
Brycen Mautz, actual: 8 75 61 18 4 0 2 28 11 10 46 1 0 2 0 0 2 1119
Brycen Mautz, projected: 8 75 61 18 4 0 2 28 11 10 46 1 0 2 0 0 2 1114
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Dustin May, actual: 21 459 412 105 21 1 7 149 35 56 327 1 3 7 3 0 6 621
Dustin May, projected: 21 456 407 96 17 2 12 154 38 53 327 1 2 8 4 1 10 656
Michael McGreevy, actual: 31 702 647 168 38 3 21 275 48 79 506 0 6 1 4 0 3 682
Michael McGreevy, projected: 31 697 648 167 33 5 20 269 41 79 506 1 5 3 4 0 2 658
Riley O'Brien, actual: 66 276 233 53 10 0 5 78 29 35 192 3 1 10 0 4 4 596
Riley O'Brien, projected: 66 274 229 52 9 1 6 80 32 31 192 2 2 9 0 3 3 655
Pedro Pagés, actual: 2 7 7 2 0 0 1 5 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 724
Pedro Pagés, projected: 2 7 7 2 0 0 1 5 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 729
Andre Pallante, actual: 29 679 617 156 28 3 12 226 50 73 486 1 3 6 5 0 16 630
Andre Pallante, projected: 29 675 607 159 29 2 14 235 58 79 486 2 3 4 3 1 20 682
Matt Pushard, actual: 6 32 25 6 1 0 0 7 4 5 21 0 1 1 1 0 0 814
Matt Pushard, projected: 6 32 25 6 1 0 0 7 4 5 21 0 1 1 1 0 0 810
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Max Rajcic, actual: 6 39 33 6 2 1 1 13 6 5 27 0 0 0 0 0 2 739
Max Rajcic, projected: 6 39 33 6 2 1 1 13 6 5 27 0 0 0 0 0 2 729
Hancel Rincón, actual: 3 14 12 5 0 1 1 10 1 7 7 0 0 1 0 0 0 2927
Hancel Rincón, projected: 3 14 12 5 0 1 1 10 1 7 7 0 0 1 0 0 0 2916
JoJo Romero, actual: 44 186 164 40 6 1 5 63 16 17 129 2 0 4 2 2 3 700
JoJo Romero, projected: 44 185 164 39 7 1 5 60 16 20 129 2 1 3 2 1 1 659
Chris Roycroft, actual: 7 39 29 13 0 0 2 19 8 9 16 1 0 1 1 0 1 3486
Chris Roycroft, projected: 7 39 33 9 1 0 1 15 4 6 16 0 1 1 1 0 1 1666
Jared Shuster, actual: 5 44 38 11 3 0 1 17 6 10 27 0 0 0 1 1 1 1131
Jared Shuster, projected: 5 44 38 11 2 0 1 17 5 6 27 0 1 0 0 0 1 940
George Soriano, actual: 70 290 247 57 13 0 10 100 35 33 198 2 3 3 0 2 11 791
George Soriano, projected: 70 288 247 62 13 0 12 110 32 41 198 1 3 5 0 1 5 863
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Ryne Stanek, actual: 70 267 231 52 7 1 9 88 32 31 188 0 1 2 0 1 2 674
Ryne Stanek, projected: 70 265 231 50 9 1 8 86 32 30 188 0 1 1 1 2 3 653
Peter Strzelecki, actual: 8 61 52 13 4 0 1 20 6 9 42 0 1 2 0 0 2 750
Peter Strzelecki, projected: 8 61 53 12 3 0 1 19 5 6 42 0 1 2 0 0 2 648
Matt Svanson, actual: 41 207 180 55 11 0 5 81 21 39 130 1 3 2 0 0 2 1073
Matt Svanson, projected: 41 206 180 41 7 1 4 62 19 25 130 0 3 3 0 0 1 695
Bryan Torres, actual: 1 8 7 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 221
Bryan Torres, projected: 1 8 7 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 162
Cade Winquest, actual: 11 57 46 9 1 0 1 13 8 8 41 0 2 1 1 0 2 626
Cade Winquest, projected: 11 57 46 9 1 0 1 13 8 8 41 0 2 1 1 0 2 633
Bruce Zimmermann, actual: 1 21 20 6 3 0 0 9 1 3 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 635
Bruce Zimmermann, projected: 1 21 19 6 1 0 1 10 1 3 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 972
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Cardinals, Actual: 162 6204 5486 1393 285 15 158 2182 564 749 4328 22 50 75 27 15 119 724
Cardinals, Projected: 162 6168 5470 1370 277 24 158 2167 544 741 4328 20 55 75 27 20 104 708


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.254 0.250
Slugging Average: 0.398 0.396
Walks (per PA): 0.091 0.088
SOs (per PA): 0.206 0.206
On-Base Average: 0.329 0.324
Power Factor: 1.566 1.582
OPS: 0.727 0.720
Runs Calculated from Actual Stats: 724
Runs Calculated from Projected Stats: 708
Actual Runs Scored: 749

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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, at 5:31 am Pacific Time.