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Cardinals 2023 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Cardinals Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.971)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Jacob Barnes, actual: 61 57 18 4 1 1 27 3 0 0 1 0 940
Jacob Barnes, projected: 59 52 13 3 0 2 21 6 0 0 0 0 798
Alec Burleson, actual: 13 13 8 0 0 1 11 0 0 0 0 0 4845
Alec Burleson, projected: 13 13 8 0 0 1 11 0 0 0 0 0 4845
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Génesis Cabrera, actual: 143 124 32 7 0 6 57 18 1 0 0 0 883
Génesis Cabrera, projected: 139 119 26 6 0 4 43 16 1 1 3 0 691
Jack Flaherty, actual: 485 417 116 28 2 10 178 54 0 5 8 1 848
Jack Flaherty, projected: 471 416 94 17 1 15 158 43 2 3 8 0 624
Giovanny Gallegos, actual: 229 214 54 13 0 11 100 12 2 1 0 0 719
Giovanny Gallegos, projected: 222 204 41 10 1 7 73 14 1 2 2 0 493
Ryan Helsley, actual: 146 125 22 6 1 1 33 17 0 3 1 0 397
Ryan Helsley, projected: 142 125 24 6 0 3 40 15 0 1 0 0 454
Jordan Hicks, actual: 189 160 39 7 1 2 54 24 0 2 3 0 729
Jordan Hicks, projected: 184 155 32 5 1 2 46 23 0 1 4 0 541
Dakota Hudson, actual: 354 311 88 22 0 9 137 34 1 2 6 0 813
Dakota Hudson, projected: 344 298 75 16 0 8 114 37 1 3 5 0 693
John King, actual: 76 69 19 2 0 1 24 6 1 0 0 0 558
John King, projected: 74 68 19 2 0 1 26 5 0 0 1 0 689
Casey Lawrence, actual: 122 107 32 10 0 7 63 10 1 2 2 0 1113
Casey Lawrence, projected: 118 106 33 7 0 5 56 10 0 1 1 0 1121
Kyle Leahy, actual: 15 9 4 1 1 1 10 5 0 0 1 0 5590
Kyle Leahy, projected: 15 9 4 1 1 1 10 5 0 0 1 0 5590
Matthew Liberatore, actual: 275 241 66 22 2 5 107 25 0 4 5 0 883
Matthew Liberatore, projected: 267 232 66 21 2 6 110 26 1 4 4 0 961
Steven Matz, actual: 449 410 108 23 1 11 166 32 2 2 3 0 714
Steven Matz, projected: 436 397 104 18 1 15 171 31 3 1 4 0 743
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Miles Mikolas, actual: 860 802 226 50 5 26 364 39 1 8 8 2 788
Miles Mikolas, projected: 835 775 199 35 4 24 316 40 4 7 9 1 644
Jordan Montgomery, actual: 509 464 116 34 3 12 192 35 2 4 4 0 673
Jordan Montgomery, projected: 494 455 111 21 1 14 178 33 1 3 3 0 620
James Naile, actual: 80 71 27 4 0 1 34 9 0 0 0 0 1442
James Naile, projected: 78 70 23 3 0 2 32 7 0 0 0 0 1091
Packy Naughton, actual: 17 16 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 83
Packy Naughton, projected: 17 15 4 1 0 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 515
Andre Pallante, actual: 302 266 76 16 0 6 110 30 1 2 3 0 888
Andre Pallante, projected: 293 262 73 13 0 6 104 27 1 1 2 0 743
Drew Rom, actual: 170 150 51 14 3 7 92 19 0 1 0 0 1529
Drew Rom, projected: 165 146 50 14 3 7 89 18 0 1 0 0 1551
JoJo Romero, actual: 147 134 29 4 2 1 40 10 1 1 1 0 416
JoJo Romero, projected: 143 127 31 5 1 4 51 12 1 0 2 0 654
Chris Stratton, actual: 221 199 45 13 2 4 74 17 1 3 1 0 588
Chris Stratton, projected: 215 191 50 10 1 6 80 20 1 2 1 0 755
Andrew Suárez, actual: 130 115 33 8 1 7 64 15 0 0 0 0 1101
Andrew Suárez, projected: 126 114 31 6 1 5 54 10 1 1 1 0 833
Ryan Tepera, actual: 11 9 3 0 0 1 6 1 0 0 1 0 1808
Ryan Tepera, projected: 11 9 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 355
Zack Thompson, actual: 287 256 69 15 0 8 108 25 1 3 2 0 763
Zack Thompson, projected: 279 249 59 12 0 7 92 26 1 2 1 0 604
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Drew VerHagen, actual: 268 230 52 12 0 9 91 26 0 3 9 0 770
Drew VerHagen, projected: 260 229 61 11 1 9 103 24 0 2 4 0 842
Adam Wainwright, actual: 484 438 151 36 2 20 251 41 2 2 1 0 1290
Adam Wainwright, projected: 470 429 109 23 2 10 165 31 4 2 3 0 602
Jake Woodford, actual: 222 194 61 13 2 11 111 22 0 3 3 0 1239
Jake Woodford, projected: 216 191 52 9 1 7 85 17 0 4 3 0 819
Guillermo Zuñiga, actual: 8 8 2 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 404
Guillermo Zuñiga, projected: 8 8 2 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 404
Cardinals, Actual: 6273 5609 1549 366 29 179 2510 530 17 51 63 3 846
Cardinals, Projected: 6094 5464 1396 276 22 171 2240 498 23 42 62 1 710
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.276 0.255
Slugging Average: 0.447 0.410
Walks (per PA): 0.084 0.082
SOs (per PA): 0.194 0.206
On-Base Average: 0.343 0.322
Power Factor: 1.620 1.605
OPS: 0.790 0.732
TPP Runs (to date): 829 706

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 123 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.