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Diamondbacks 2025 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2025 Diamondbacks Projected Pitching

Through games of Saturday, 21 June 2025.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.972)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Merrill Kelly, actual: 16 372 346 73 17 2 10 124 25 39 279 0 0 1 4 0 8 522
Merrill Kelly, projected: 16 362 331 79 17 2 11 133 27 39 279 1 1 2 2 1 5 587
Zac Gallen, actual: 16 399 354 87 14 3 17 158 41 60 275 1 1 2 3 1 5 827
Zac Gallen, projected: 16 388 351 78 17 2 11 130 31 39 275 1 1 4 2 0 5 608
Brandon Pfaadt, actual: 15 333 304 86 23 0 15 154 19 47 226 0 1 9 2 1 4 937
Brandon Pfaadt, projected: 15 324 299 81 17 2 13 141 19 46 226 0 2 3 2 0 4 832
Corbin Burnes, actual: 11 265 233 49 13 0 7 83 26 23 193 2 1 3 1 1 2 546
Corbin Burnes, projected: 11 258 235 50 8 1 7 80 18 25 193 0 1 3 2 0 6 530
Eduardo Rodríguez, actual: 12 280 251 76 20 1 11 131 22 47 182 2 4 0 1 1 4 1091
Eduardo Rodríguez, projected: 12 272 246 62 13 1 8 101 22 31 182 1 2 2 2 0 2 756
Ryne Nelson, actual: 16 227 206 42 8 3 5 71 18 25 167 0 0 3 2 0 0 521
Ryne Nelson, projected: 16 221 201 52 12 3 7 91 15 27 167 0 3 1 1 0 1 699
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Jalen Beeks, actual: 36 146 133 26 8 0 3 43 11 14 109 0 1 1 1 1 4 478
Jalen Beeks, projected: 36 142 126 32 7 0 3 50 13 17 109 1 1 2 1 0 1 639
Shelby Miller, actual: 32 126 111 22 3 0 3 34 11 9 93 0 1 3 1 3 5 509
Shelby Miller, projected: 32 122 109 27 5 1 3 42 11 14 93 1 1 1 1 1 2 643
Ryan Thompson, actual: 32 126 117 35 7 0 4 54 8 17 87 0 0 1 0 2 5 837
Ryan Thompson, projected: 32 122 113 28 5 1 3 43 8 14 87 1 0 1 1 1 4 648
Juan Morillo, actual: 23 89 76 19 3 1 2 30 11 12 62 1 0 1 1 0 1 716
Juan Morillo, projected: 23 86 74 18 3 1 2 29 11 12 62 1 0 1 1 0 1 718
Tayler Scott, actual: 3 22 19 7 4 0 0 11 3 5 12 0 0 0 0 0 2 1896
Tayler Scott, projected: 3 21 18 5 1 0 1 8 3 3 12 0 0 0 0 0 1 1188
José Castillo, actual: 5 31 27 10 2 0 3 21 3 8 19 0 1 0 0 0 2 1832
José Castillo, projected: 5 30 26 6 1 0 1 10 3 4 19 0 0 1 0 0 1 842
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Justin Martínez, actual: 17 67 52 7 2 0 1 12 12 8 46 0 0 3 1 1 0 496
Justin Martínez, projected: 17 65 55 12 2 0 1 17 9 7 46 0 0 1 0 1 0 572
Kevin Ginkel, actual: 16 70 56 18 6 0 2 30 10 19 39 0 2 2 1 0 0 1681
Kevin Ginkel, projected: 16 68 60 14 4 0 2 23 6 9 39 0 1 1 0 0 1 861
Bryce Jarvis, actual: 7 45 38 10 2 0 1 15 5 7 31 0 1 1 0 0 0 762
Bryce Jarvis, projected: 7 44 37 8 1 0 1 13 5 5 31 0 0 1 0 0 0 555
Joe Mantiply, actual: 10 58 54 26 4 0 5 45 3 17 29 0 0 1 0 1 1 2862
Joe Mantiply, projected: 10 56 52 14 3 1 1 22 4 8 29 0 0 0 1 1 1 1021
Kendall Graveman, actual: 9 40 34 14 4 1 1 23 5 8 25 0 0 1 0 0 2 1559
Kendall Graveman, projected: 9 39 35 9 2 0 1 14 3 4 25 0 0 0 0 0 1 702
A.J. Puk, actual: 8 35 32 8 3 0 2 17 2 3 24 0 0 1 0 0 3 992
A.J. Puk, projected: 8 34 30 7 2 0 1 11 3 4 24 0 0 1 0 0 1 689
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Scott McGough, actual: 7 35 28 6 2 0 1 11 6 5 21 0 0 1 1 0 0 1079
Scott McGough, projected: 7 34 29 7 2 0 1 14 4 5 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 810
Tommy Henry, actual: 2 26 23 6 0 0 3 15 1 3 20 1 0 1 0 0 0 857
Tommy Henry, projected: 2 25 22 6 1 0 1 11 2 3 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 648
Cristian Mena, actual: 3 26 23 3 0 0 1 6 3 1 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 396
Cristian Mena, projected: 3 25 22 4 0 0 2 10 4 3 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 702
Kyle Backhus, actual: 5 19 17 4 2 0 0 6 1 1 15 0 1 0 0 0 0 405
Kyle Backhus, projected: 5 18 17 4 2 0 0 6 1 1 15 0 1 0 0 0 0 421
Anthony DeSclafani, actual: 2 21 20 8 2 0 3 19 0 6 13 0 0 1 0 0 0 1925
Anthony DeSclafani, projected: 2 20 19 5 1 0 1 8 1 2 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 729
J.P. Feyereisen, actual: 2 9 9 3 2 0 1 8 0 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1466
J.P. Feyereisen, projected: 2 9 8 1 0 0 0 3 1 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 162
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Jeff Brigham, actual: 4 18 17 7 0 0 1 10 1 3 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 1827
Jeff Brigham, projected: 4 17 15 4 1 0 1 7 2 2 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 1013
Yilber Díaz, actual: 1 15 12 4 2 0 0 6 3 3 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1207
Yilber Díaz, projected: 1 15 13 3 1 0 0 6 2 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 648
Drey Jameson, actual: 3 13 10 4 2 0 0 6 3 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 944
Drey Jameson, projected: 3 13 11 3 1 0 0 4 1 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 540
Christian Montes De Oca, actual: 1 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Christian Montes De Oca, projected: 1 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
José Herrera, actual: 1 5 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1166
José Herrera, projected: 1 5 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1134
Diamondbacks, Actual: 76 2927 2615 662 155 11 102 1145 254 395 2032 7 14 36 19 12 48 369
Diamondbacks, Projected: 76 2844 2567 621 129 15 83 1029 230 329 2032 7 14 25 16 5 37 314


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.253 0.242
Slugging Average: 0.438 0.401
Walks (per PA): 0.087 0.081
SOs (per PA): 0.219 0.232
On-Base Average: 0.326 0.309
Power Factor: 1.730 1.657
OPS: 0.764 0.710
Runs Calculated from Actual Stats: 369
Runs Calculated from Projected Stats: 314
Actual Runs Scored: 395

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