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Diamondbacks 2021 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2021 Diamondbacks Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 20 June 2021.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.973)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Ryan Buchter, actual: 44 35 6 2 0 3 17 6 0 1 2 0 862
Ryan Buchter, projected: 43 37 7 2 0 1 14 5 0 0 0 0 485
J.B. Bukauskas, actual: 41 38 14 1 1 1 20 2 0 1 0 0 1301
J.B. Bukauskas, projected: 40 37 14 1 1 1 19 2 0 1 0 0 1391
Madison Bumgarner, actual: 258 230 57 18 1 10 107 18 2 2 6 0 798
Madison Bumgarner, projected: 251 231 54 11 1 7 88 14 2 1 2 0 566
Asdrubal Cabrera, actual: 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Asdrubal Cabrera, projected: 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Humberto Castellanos, actual: 33 27 5 1 0 1 9 4 2 0 0 0 433
Humberto Castellanos, projected: 32 27 6 2 0 1 11 3 1 0 1 0 657
Taylor Clarke, actual: 142 133 34 9 0 3 52 9 0 0 0 0 602
Taylor Clarke, projected: 138 124 31 7 1 7 60 12 0 1 1 0 848
Stefan Crichton, actual: 104 90 27 6 0 2 39 10 0 2 2 0 984
Stefan Crichton, projected: 101 91 25 5 0 2 37 8 0 1 2 0 761
Chris Devenski, actual: 35 32 11 2 0 2 19 2 0 0 1 0 1472
Chris Devenski, projected: 34 31 7 1 0 1 12 2 0 0 0 0 487
Jon Duplantier, actual: 70 59 19 3 0 5 37 8 1 0 2 0 1557
Jon Duplantier, projected: 68 58 17 4 0 2 27 8 1 0 2 0 1006
Jake Faria, actual: 11 9 3 0 0 1 6 1 0 1 0 0 2096
Jake Faria, projected: 11 9 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 355
Seth Frankoff, actual: 74 60 20 3 0 4 35 9 3 0 2 0 1457
Seth Frankoff, projected: 72 60 22 4 0 4 36 8 2 0 1 0 1655
Zac Gallen, actual: 129 110 22 5 1 2 35 15 0 1 3 0 599
Zac Gallen, projected: 126 111 23 4 0 3 38 13 0 0 1 0 532
Kevin Ginkel, actual: 129 112 30 8 1 7 61 14 1 0 2 0 1018
Kevin Ginkel, projected: 126 109 27 6 1 5 50 15 0 0 1 0 831
Merrill Kelly, actual: 337 306 83 15 3 12 140 24 3 3 1 0 788
Merrill Kelly, projected: 328 300 78 16 2 12 133 23 1 2 1 1 732
Yoan López, actual: 61 54 18 4 1 3 33 6 0 1 0 0 1409
Yoan López, projected: 59 54 14 3 1 3 26 5 0 1 0 0 910
Joe Mantiply, actual: 63 50 15 6 1 1 26 9 0 3 1 0 1607
Joe Mantiply, projected: 61 49 16 5 1 2 28 10 1 2 1 0 1770
Corbin Martin, actual: 79 65 20 5 1 3 36 12 2 0 0 0 1279
Corbin Martin, projected: 77 65 19 4 0 5 40 11 1 0 0 0 1258
Wyatt Mathisen, actual: 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 319
Wyatt Mathisen, projected: 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 319
Keury Mella, actual: 15 13 8 1 0 2 15 2 0 0 0 0 6531
Keury Mella, projected: 15 12 4 1 0 1 8 2 0 0 0 0 1326
Matt Peacock, actual: 197 179 52 12 2 8 92 15 1 2 0 0 939
Matt Peacock, projected: 192 174 51 12 2 8 90 15 1 2 0 0 954
David Peralta, actual: 9 8 4 1 0 1 8 0 0 0 1 0 4958
David Peralta, projected: 9 8 4 1 0 1 8 0 0 0 1 0 4958
Noe Ramirez, actual: 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noe Ramirez, projected: 5 4 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 481
Caleb Smith, actual: 228 196 41 11 0 6 70 26 1 0 4 1 603
Caleb Smith, projected: 222 194 43 10 0 9 81 23 1 1 2 0 681
Riley Smith, actual: 234 216 67 19 2 6 108 15 1 1 1 0 919
Riley Smith, projected: 228 210 61 16 1 5 96 15 1 1 1 0 753
Joakim Soria, actual: 71 64 19 6 1 3 36 6 0 1 0 0 1042
Joakim Soria, projected: 69 62 14 2 0 1 21 5 0 1 1 0 529
Anthony Swarzak, actual: 21 20 7 1 1 1 13 1 0 0 0 0 1237
Anthony Swarzak, projected: 20 19 5 1 0 1 8 2 0 0 0 0 793
Luke Weaver, actual: 167 150 35 8 4 6 69 13 2 1 1 0 689
Luke Weaver, projected: 162 147 39 8 1 5 65 12 1 1 1 0 750
Taylor Widener, actual: 104 90 20 3 0 4 35 8 2 1 3 0 697
Taylor Widener, projected: 101 86 18 3 1 5 36 11 1 1 3 0 810
Alex Young, actual: 158 137 36 1 2 7 62 18 1 2 0 0 871
Alex Young, projected: 154 138 34 6 1 7 63 13 1 2 1 0 800
Diamondbacks, Actual: 2827 2496 675 151 22 104 1182 253 22 23 32 1 889
Diamondbacks, Projected: 2752 2455 638 135 14 99 1103 238 15 18 23 1 792
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.270 0.260
Slugging Average: 0.474 0.449
Walks (per PA): 0.089 0.086
SOs (per PA): 0.203 0.210
On-Base Average: 0.342 0.329
Power Factor: 1.751 1.729
OPS: 0.816 0.778
TPP Runs (to date): 416 352

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 64 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Monday, 21 June 2021, at 1:39 pm Pacific Time.