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Orioles 2026 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2026 Orioles Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 12 April 2026.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.975)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Blaze Alexander, actual: 11 35 33 8 1 0 0 9 1 0 0 1 0 346
Blaze Alexander, projected: 11 34 30 7 1 0 1 11 3 0 0 1 0 662
Pete Alonso, actual: 15 66 58 11 3 0 1 17 8 0 0 0 0 430
Pete Alonso, projected: 15 64 56 14 3 0 4 29 6 0 0 1 0 914
Samuel Basallo, actual: 11 46 40 6 0 0 2 12 6 0 0 0 0 485
Samuel Basallo, projected: 11 45 41 7 2 0 2 13 3 0 0 1 0 429
Dylan Beavers, actual: 12 41 36 9 1 0 1 13 4 0 1 0 0 695
Dylan Beavers, projected: 12 40 33 8 1 0 1 13 7 0 0 0 0 839
Colton Cowser, actual: 12 35 29 7 1 0 0 8 4 1 1 0 0 490
Colton Cowser, projected: 12 34 30 7 1 0 1 12 3 0 0 0 0 562
Gunnar Henderson, actual: 15 71 62 15 3 0 6 36 8 0 0 1 0 1120
Gunnar Henderson, projected: 15 69 61 16 3 1 3 30 7 0 0 1 0 945
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Jeremiah Jackson, actual: 13 42 40 11 1 0 1 15 0 0 1 1 0 565
Jeremiah Jackson, projected: 13 41 38 11 2 0 1 17 2 0 0 1 0 623
Coby Mayo, actual: 12 44 38 6 1 0 0 7 6 0 0 0 0 285
Coby Mayo, projected: 12 43 38 7 1 0 1 13 4 0 0 1 0 433
Ryan Mountcastle, actual: 8 15 14 4 1 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 688
Ryan Mountcastle, projected: 8 15 13 4 1 0 1 6 1 0 0 0 0 1068
Tyler O'Neill, actual: 10 34 29 7 0 0 1 10 3 0 0 2 0 799
Tyler O'Neill, projected: 10 33 29 7 1 0 2 14 3 0 0 0 0 849
Johnathan Rodríguez, actual: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Johnathan Rodríguez, projected: 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Adley Rutschman, actual: 10 39 34 10 6 0 0 16 5 0 0 0 0 1027
Adley Rutschman, projected: 10 38 33 8 2 0 1 14 4 0 0 0 0 737
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Leody Taveras, actual: 11 27 22 8 3 0 0 11 4 1 0 0 0 1386
Leody Taveras, projected: 11 26 24 6 1 0 1 9 2 0 0 0 0 665
Taylor Ward, actual: 15 70 59 21 10 0 0 31 10 0 1 0 0 1477
Taylor Ward, projected: 15 68 60 15 3 0 3 26 7 0 1 1 0 911
Orioles, Actual: 15 566 494 123 31 0 12 190 61 2 4 5 0 66
Orioles, Projected: 15 551 487 117 22 1 22 207 52 0 1 7 0 68


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.249 0.240
Slugging Average: 0.385 0.425
Walks (per PA): 0.108 0.094
SOs (per PA): 0.247 0.256
On-Base Average: 0.335 0.322
Power Factor: 1.545 1.769
OPS: 0.720 0.747
Runs Expected from Actual Stats: 66
Runs Expected from Projected Stats: 68
Actual Runs Scored: 60

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This page was last modified on Monday, 13 April 2026, at 5:02 am Pacific Time.