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Orioles 2021 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2021 Orioles Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 20 June 2021.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.009)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Maikel Franco, actual: 273 257 54 16 0 8 94 14 0 1 1 0 455
Maikel Franco, projected: 276 254 63 13 0 11 108 18 0 2 1 0 655
Freddy Galvis, actual: 254 230 59 12 1 9 100 17 2 1 3 1 714
Freddy Galvis, projected: 256 237 59 11 2 7 92 14 2 1 1 0 598
Matt Harvey, actual: 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Matt Harvey, projected: 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Hays, actual: 170 154 35 6 2 6 63 12 2 0 2 0 616
Austin Hays, projected: 172 157 40 7 1 6 66 11 1 1 2 0 733
Jorge Lopez, actual: 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jorge Lopez, projected: 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trey Mancini, actual: 295 261 71 15 0 14 128 29 0 1 4 0 880
Trey Mancini, projected: 298 270 74 14 1 13 131 23 0 2 3 0 849
Ryan McKenna, actual: 47 41 8 1 1 0 11 6 0 0 0 0 549
Ryan McKenna, projected: 47 41 8 1 1 0 11 6 0 0 0 0 549
John Means, actual: 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
John Means, projected: 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Mountcastle, actual: 254 241 64 12 1 12 114 8 0 3 2 0 707
Ryan Mountcastle, projected: 256 239 69 11 1 11 115 12 0 3 2 0 850
Cedric Mullins, actual: 304 270 86 18 3 13 149 28 0 1 4 1 1251
Cedric Mullins, projected: 307 274 72 13 3 8 118 24 3 1 4 0 768
Tyler Nevin, actual: 6 5 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 629
Tyler Nevin, projected: 6 5 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 629
Rio Ruiz, actual: 101 90 15 3 0 3 27 9 1 0 1 0 381
Rio Ruiz, projected: 102 91 19 4 0 3 33 10 0 1 0 0 541
Anthony Santander, actual: 175 163 39 12 0 4 63 6 1 3 2 0 518
Anthony Santander, projected: 177 165 41 11 1 7 75 8 0 1 1 0 669
Pedro Severino, actual: 175 157 37 5 0 3 51 18 0 0 0 0 545
Pedro Severino, projected: 177 158 36 7 0 5 57 16 0 1 2 0 608
Chance Sisco, actual: 73 65 10 2 0 0 12 6 0 0 2 0 234
Chance Sisco, projected: 74 63 12 3 0 2 21 8 0 0 4 0 569
DJ Stewart, actual: 179 154 33 5 0 7 59 23 0 0 2 0 705
DJ Stewart, projected: 181 154 34 6 0 8 64 23 1 1 3 0 782
Ramon Urias, actual: 64 57 14 2 0 2 22 5 0 0 2 0 688
Ramon Urias, projected: 65 58 16 3 0 2 26 5 0 0 1 0 787
Pat Valaika, actual: 117 105 21 4 0 1 28 9 1 1 1 0 369
Pat Valaika, projected: 118 109 25 5 0 4 43 7 2 0 0 0 518
Stevie Wilkerson, actual: 67 63 11 3 0 0 14 3 0 0 1 0 244
Stevie Wilkerson, projected: 68 62 13 3 0 1 21 4 0 0 1 0 411
Austin Wynns, actual: 32 32 4 1 0 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 170
Austin Wynns, projected: 32 31 7 1 0 1 10 1 1 0 0 0 402
Bruce Zimmermann, actual: 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bruce Zimmermann, projected: 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Orioles, Actual: 2600 2358 562 118 8 83 945 194 8 11 27 2 635
Orioles, Projected: 2626 2381 590 114 10 89 994 191 10 14 25 0 683
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.238 0.248
Slugging Average: 0.401 0.417
Walks (per PA): 0.075 0.073
SOs (per PA): 0.238 0.228
On-Base Average: 0.302 0.309
Power Factor: 1.681 1.685
OPS: 0.703 0.726
TOP Runs (to date): 291 299

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -8 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Monday, 21 June 2021, at 1:39 pm Pacific Time.