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Red Sox 2026 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2026 Red Sox Projected Batting

Through games of Monday, 21 September 2026.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.991)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Wilyer Abreu, actual: 151 657 574 144 36 4 24 260 70 1 7 3 2 835
Wilyer Abreu, projected: 151 651 577 146 37 2 26 265 64 1 6 2 1 802
Roman Anthony, actual: 50 223 195 47 9 2 5 75 27 0 0 1 0 749
Roman Anthony, projected: 50 221 190 51 11 1 5 82 28 0 0 3 0 920
Tsung-Che Cheng, actual: 14 44 39 10 1 0 0 11 4 0 1 0 0 434
Tsung-Che Cheng, projected: 14 44 39 9 1 0 0 9 3 0 1 0 0 322
Willson Contreras, actual: 129 533 446 123 21 3 27 231 59 1 3 24 0 1175
Willson Contreras, projected: 129 528 456 118 25 2 22 212 53 1 3 17 0 919
Jarren Duran, actual: 145 592 538 110 15 5 20 195 38 3 7 6 0 550
Jarren Duran, projected: 145 587 533 135 33 8 15 231 42 1 4 7 0 780
Caleb Durbin, actual: 148 566 491 125 25 1 13 191 49 6 4 15 1 749
Caleb Durbin, projected: 148 561 490 125 26 1 13 190 41 5 4 20 1 736
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Nate Eaton, actual: 22 55 45 6 2 0 1 11 8 0 0 2 0 474
Nate Eaton, projected: 22 55 48 10 2 1 1 15 4 0 1 1 0 592
Mickey Gasper, actual: 63 217 184 47 9 1 9 85 26 1 1 5 0 937
Mickey Gasper, projected: 63 215 183 38 6 1 7 66 25 1 1 6 0 672
Romy González, actual: 19 73 65 12 3 1 1 20 5 1 0 2 0 330
Romy González, projected: 19 72 67 18 4 1 2 28 3 0 1 1 0 708
Brett Harris, actual: 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Brett Harris, projected: 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jahmai Jones, actual: 33 63 53 18 4 1 4 36 6 0 0 4 0 1958
Jahmai Jones, projected: 33 62 55 13 3 0 2 22 6 0 0 1 0 699
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, actual: 61 169 150 37 5 0 2 48 16 3 0 0 0 562
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, projected: 61 168 154 40 6 1 2 54 9 1 1 2 0 603
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Marcelo Mayer, actual: 70 228 205 45 10 0 3 64 16 0 3 3 1 510
Marcelo Mayer, projected: 70 226 206 45 11 1 4 71 15 0 2 2 1 494
Curtis Mead, actual: 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 875
Curtis Mead, projected: 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Andruw Monasterio, actual: 101 329 297 71 23 1 6 114 24 1 4 3 0 590
Andruw Monasterio, projected: 101 326 294 72 18 1 5 107 27 0 2 3 0 592
Carlos Narváez, actual: 62 197 171 32 6 0 3 47 14 5 3 4 0 366
Carlos Narváez, projected: 62 195 174 37 9 0 5 60 15 2 1 2 0 480
Ceddanne Rafaela, actual: 135 569 535 151 32 3 16 237 21 2 3 8 0 755
Ceddanne Rafaela, projected: 135 564 531 137 30 4 15 220 21 2 3 7 0 639
Jake Rogers, actual: 3 9 6 3 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 0 3952
Jake Rogers, projected: 3 9 8 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 317
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Adley Rutschman, actual: 27 107 99 19 5 0 4 36 8 0 0 0 0 506
Adley Rutschman, projected: 27 106 93 23 5 0 3 38 12 0 1 0 0 750
Anthony Seigler, actual: 49 173 150 37 12 1 3 60 18 2 2 1 0 709
Anthony Seigler, projected: 49 172 148 34 9 1 2 51 18 2 2 1 0 577
Nick Sogard, actual: 60 252 216 54 13 1 5 84 29 5 1 1 0 718
Nick Sogard, projected: 60 250 220 57 14 1 3 80 23 3 2 2 0 657
Trevor Story, actual: 60 252 239 59 14 0 5 88 10 0 2 1 0 569
Trevor Story, projected: 60 250 227 60 14 1 11 110 19 0 1 2 0 881
Eli White, actual: 27 60 58 16 3 0 1 22 2 0 0 0 0 689
Eli White, projected: 27 59 55 12 2 0 2 19 4 0 0 1 0 586
Connor Wong, actual: 74 233 205 48 11 0 4 71 17 4 1 6 0 517
Connor Wong, projected: 74 231 209 51 12 1 5 78 15 2 1 4 0 600
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Masataka Yoshida, actual: 87 297 263 72 16 1 5 105 28 0 3 3 0 874
Masataka Yoshida, projected: 87 294 268 75 16 1 7 112 19 0 2 5 0 836
Red Sox, Actual: 156 5903 5227 1286 277 25 161 2096 497 35 46 94 4 689
Red Sox, Projected: 156 5851 5230 1308 294 29 157 2125 467 21 39 89 3 687


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.246 0.250
Slugging Average: 0.401 0.406
Walks (per PA): 0.084 0.080
SOs (per PA): 0.215 0.222
On-Base Average: 0.320 0.320
Power Factor: 1.630 1.625
OPS: 0.721 0.726
Runs Expected from Actual Stats: 689
Runs Expected from Projected Stats: 687
Actual Runs Scored: 678

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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 22 September 2026, at 5:32 am Pacific Time.