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Red Sox 2026 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2026 Red Sox Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 27 September 2026.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Jack Anderson, actual: 3 32 30 8 1 0 1 12 2 3 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 562
Jack Anderson, projected: 3 32 30 7 1 0 1 10 2 2 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 486
Brayan Bello, actual: 26 503 452 123 17 1 12 178 36 61 349 1 7 7 3 2 13 766
Brayan Bello, projected: 26 503 450 118 22 1 13 180 41 58 349 1 4 7 6 1 10 760
Jake Bennett, actual: 20 455 423 104 17 0 12 157 21 47 340 4 4 3 1 2 10 542
Jake Bennett, projected: 20 455 423 104 17 0 12 157 21 47 340 4 4 3 1 2 10 543
Raymond Burgos, actual: 9 82 80 17 3 0 3 29 1 11 64 1 0 0 2 0 1 472
Raymond Burgos, projected: 9 82 79 18 3 0 3 29 2 11 64 1 0 0 2 0 1 522
Aroldis Chapman, actual: 53 213 187 35 9 1 3 55 23 13 155 2 0 1 1 0 9 484
Aroldis Chapman, projected: 53 213 184 31 6 0 3 47 26 16 155 0 1 2 1 0 6 431
Danny Coulombe, actual: 29 96 80 18 1 0 1 22 15 11 66 0 0 1 0 0 1 570
Danny Coulombe, projected: 29 96 86 19 4 0 2 30 9 9 66 0 0 0 1 0 2 575
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Garrett Crochet, actual: 6 138 122 33 9 0 5 57 11 23 90 1 0 4 2 0 0 958
Garrett Crochet, projected: 6 138 126 28 5 0 4 45 10 13 90 0 1 1 1 0 3 648
Connelly Early, actual: 17 390 344 81 12 0 15 138 34 35 275 1 2 9 2 0 8 723
Connelly Early, projected: 17 390 349 81 11 0 12 128 31 33 275 1 2 8 2 0 7 648
Alec Gamboa, actual: 21 132 117 27 9 1 1 41 11 8 99 1 2 1 1 0 1 485
Alec Gamboa, projected: 21 132 117 27 9 1 1 41 11 8 99 1 2 1 1 0 1 486
Sonny Gray, actual: 29 683 627 148 35 1 16 233 46 52 507 2 3 5 3 0 18 553
Sonny Gray, projected: 29 683 619 144 27 3 16 226 53 70 507 2 4 5 5 0 11 581
Tayron Guerrero, actual: 40 166 155 37 4 0 2 47 8 18 122 1 0 2 0 1 2 450
Tayron Guerrero, projected: 40 166 143 37 6 0 4 56 19 23 122 0 1 3 1 1 2 729
Tanner Houck, actual: 1 13 13 4 0 0 2 10 0 3 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1358
Tanner Houck, projected: 1 13 12 3 0 0 0 4 1 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 486
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Tommy Kahnle, actual: 8 43 37 12 4 0 2 22 6 8 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 1253
Tommy Kahnle, projected: 8 43 37 8 2 0 1 13 5 5 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 608
Zack Kelly, actual: 17 71 60 14 1 0 1 18 7 8 49 1 2 1 1 0 1 668
Zack Kelly, projected: 17 71 62 14 3 0 2 24 7 9 49 0 1 1 1 1 2 743
Joe La Sorsa, actual: 1 2 2 1 0 0 1 4 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4343
Joe La Sorsa, projected: 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Seth Martinez, actual: 1 6 5 2 1 0 0 3 0 1 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 2136
Seth Martinez, projected: 1 6 5 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 648
Erik Miller, actual: 19 85 68 14 1 0 1 18 12 8 56 1 1 3 0 1 0 612
Erik Miller, projected: 19 85 70 15 3 0 1 22 12 7 56 1 1 1 0 1 2 588
Andruw Monasterio, actual: 1 8 4 3 0 0 2 9 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 12569
Andruw Monasterio, projected: 1 8 4 3 0 0 2 9 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 12474
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Jovani Morán, actual: 50 272 233 42 7 1 9 78 33 24 197 2 2 2 3 2 9 591
Jovani Morán, projected: 50 272 233 47 8 2 5 73 35 29 197 2 1 1 2 1 6 561
Wyatt Olds, actual: 14 68 58 11 2 0 2 19 8 5 47 0 0 2 2 0 4 732
Wyatt Olds, projected: 14 68 58 11 2 0 2 19 8 5 47 0 0 2 2 0 4 729
Johan Oviedo, actual: 1 18 15 6 2 0 2 14 1 4 11 0 1 1 0 0 0 1987
Johan Oviedo, projected: 1 18 16 4 1 0 0 6 2 2 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 648
Jedixson Paez, actual: 2 41 38 13 3 0 2 22 2 8 26 0 1 0 0 0 0 1295
Jedixson Paez, projected: 2 41 36 12 2 0 3 23 4 10 26 0 1 0 0 0 0 1458
Eduardo Rivera, actual: 4 44 38 8 2 0 1 13 6 7 30 0 0 0 0 0 1 664
Eduardo Rivera, projected: 4 44 38 8 2 0 1 13 6 7 30 0 0 0 0 0 1 648
Tyler Samaniego, actual: 20 90 77 22 2 0 1 27 8 8 61 2 1 2 1 0 1 728
Tyler Samaniego, projected: 20 90 77 22 2 0 1 27 8 8 61 2 1 2 1 0 1 729
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Patrick Sandoval, actual: 15 321 282 86 17 0 7 124 32 44 211 1 4 2 2 0 5 956
Patrick Sandoval, projected: 15 321 283 72 13 1 7 109 32 39 211 1 2 2 4 0 3 778
Justin Slaten, actual: 36 137 127 35 6 0 4 53 8 20 94 2 0 0 1 0 7 805
Justin Slaten, projected: 36 137 128 30 4 0 3 44 7 17 94 1 1 1 1 1 3 594
Ranger Suárez, actual: 28 612 554 130 26 1 10 188 46 56 445 1 4 7 3 0 8 545
Ranger Suárez, projected: 28 612 556 138 27 2 13 207 46 59 445 3 3 5 4 1 5 608
Payton Tolle, actual: 26 603 554 123 33 1 15 203 40 54 446 1 2 6 4 1 4 534
Payton Tolle, projected: 26 603 552 126 31 1 18 212 43 59 446 1 3 5 4 1 6 586
Tyler Uberstine, actual: 1 11 10 3 1 0 1 7 1 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 990
Tyler Uberstine, projected: 1 11 10 3 1 0 1 7 1 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 972
Ryan Watson, actual: 35 240 215 54 11 2 8 93 19 28 167 2 1 3 0 0 3 755
Ryan Watson, projected: 35 240 217 53 11 2 6 86 18 26 167 2 2 2 0 2 3 680
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Greg Weissert, actual: 63 255 229 55 10 0 8 89 20 23 182 0 2 3 0 2 3 652
Greg Weissert, projected: 63 255 229 56 10 0 7 86 20 27 182 1 2 2 1 2 6 643
Garrett Whitlock, actual: 54 198 186 38 6 0 3 53 9 13 157 1 2 0 0 0 3 333
Garrett Whitlock, projected: 54 198 183 42 9 0 5 66 11 18 157 0 1 2 1 1 4 501
Red Sox, Actual: 162 6028 5422 1307 252 9 153 2036 469 611 4320 28 42 66 32 11 112 633
Red Sox, Projected: 162 6028 5414 1282 242 13 149 2002 495 626 4320 24 39 56 42 15 99 624


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.241 0.237
Slugging Average: 0.376 0.370
Walks (per PA): 0.078 0.082
SOs (per PA): 0.232 0.241
On-Base Average: 0.307 0.305
Power Factor: 1.558 1.562
OPS: 0.683 0.675
Runs Calculated from Actual Stats: 633
Runs Calculated from Projected Stats: 624
Actual Runs Scored: 611

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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, at 5:31 am Pacific Time.