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Tigers 2021 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2021 Tigers Projected Pitching

Through games of Wednesday, 28 July 2021.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Tyler Alexander, actual: 223 208 57 10 0 10 97 12 0 1 2 0 849
Tyler Alexander, projected: 223 209 60 10 1 10 103 10 0 1 3 0 867
Matthew Boyd, actual: 298 269 66 13 1 6 99 19 1 3 6 0 633
Matthew Boyd, projected: 298 269 70 14 2 12 124 22 1 2 3 0 799
Beau Burrows, actual: 9 7 2 1 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 1219
Beau Burrows, projected: 9 7 2 1 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 773
Harold Castro, actual: 11 8 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 135
Harold Castro, projected: 11 8 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 135
Jose Cisnero, actual: 182 157 35 6 0 4 53 19 2 2 2 0 584
Jose Cisnero, projected: 182 157 40 8 1 4 62 20 1 2 2 0 762
Miguel Del Pozo, actual: 5 5 3 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 4513
Miguel Del Pozo, projected: 5 4 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 763
Buck Farmer, actual: 147 124 35 4 0 9 66 17 0 1 5 0 1192
Buck Farmer, projected: 147 127 34 7 1 5 59 15 1 1 2 0 893
Jason Foley, actual: 22 19 4 2 0 1 9 0 0 0 3 0 811
Jason Foley, projected: 22 19 4 2 0 1 9 0 0 0 3 0 811
Michael Fulmer, actual: 177 163 42 4 0 6 64 11 0 0 3 0 685
Michael Fulmer, projected: 177 161 40 7 0 5 63 12 1 1 2 0 629
Kyle Funkhouser, actual: 170 146 33 1 2 3 47 17 2 2 3 0 606
Kyle Funkhouser, projected: 170 146 37 3 2 4 56 19 1 2 2 0 760
Bryan Garcia, actual: 155 131 36 7 0 8 67 20 2 0 2 0 1147
Bryan Garcia, projected: 155 132 35 6 0 5 56 19 1 1 2 0 930
Rony Garcia, actual: 12 10 1 0 0 1 4 2 0 0 0 0 455
Rony Garcia, projected: 12 11 3 1 0 1 6 1 0 0 0 0 893
Derek Holland, actual: 108 92 28 8 0 4 48 15 0 1 0 0 1296
Derek Holland, projected: 108 97 25 5 0 4 43 9 1 1 1 0 779
Joe Jimenez, actual: 132 104 23 7 0 5 45 23 0 0 5 0 961
Joe Jimenez, projected: 132 115 29 7 0 5 52 13 0 1 3 0 847
Ian Krol, actual: 20 17 4 0 2 0 8 2 0 1 0 0 906
Ian Krol, projected: 20 18 5 1 0 1 8 2 0 0 0 0 962
Alex Lange, actual: 85 75 24 3 0 5 42 10 0 0 0 0 1367
Alex Lange, projected: 85 75 24 3 0 5 42 10 0 0 0 0 1367
Matt Manning, actual: 145 130 36 9 1 4 59 11 0 2 2 0 836
Matt Manning, projected: 145 130 36 9 1 4 59 11 0 2 2 0 836
Casey Mize, actual: 421 382 89 11 2 16 152 28 1 1 9 0 595
Casey Mize, projected: 421 378 90 12 2 17 157 31 1 1 11 0 683
Daniel Norris, actual: 157 140 38 7 0 4 57 15 0 0 2 0 709
Daniel Norris, projected: 157 142 38 8 1 5 64 12 1 1 1 0 804
Wily Peralta, actual: 170 151 31 4 2 7 60 16 1 0 2 0 596
Wily Peralta, projected: 170 151 42 8 1 5 65 15 2 1 1 0 817
Erasmo Ramirez, actual: 56 52 14 3 0 1 20 3 0 1 0 0 640
Erasmo Ramirez, projected: 56 51 13 2 0 2 22 4 0 0 1 0 716
Jake Rogers, actual: 6 5 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 2041
Jake Rogers, projected: 6 5 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 2041
Tarik Skubal, actual: 429 382 93 21 0 22 180 38 1 3 5 0 814
Tarik Skubal, projected: 429 382 92 19 0 24 182 37 1 4 5 0 824
Gregory Soto, actual: 186 156 32 5 0 4 49 27 1 1 1 0 608
Gregory Soto, projected: 186 159 41 7 1 5 64 24 0 1 1 0 872
Julio Teheran, actual: 20 17 4 1 0 1 8 3 0 0 0 0 707
Julio Teheran, projected: 20 18 4 1 0 1 7 2 0 0 0 0 626
Spencer Turnbull, actual: 201 182 37 7 1 2 52 12 1 1 5 0 429
Spencer Turnbull, projected: 201 177 44 10 1 3 66 18 1 1 4 0 681
Jose Urena, actual: 368 326 95 23 2 12 158 37 0 1 4 0 1008
Jose Urena, projected: 368 327 86 17 2 11 141 31 2 2 5 0 757
Tigers, Actual: 3915 3458 864 159 13 135 1454 363 12 21 61 0 766
Tigers, Projected: 3915 3475 897 169 16 139 1520 343 15 25 54 0 794
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.250 0.258
Slugging Average: 0.420 0.437
Walks (per PA): 0.093 0.088
SOs (per PA): 0.211 0.205
On-Base Average: 0.330 0.332
Power Factor: 1.683 1.695
OPS: 0.750 0.769
TPP Runs (to date): 514 500

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 14 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Thursday, 29 July 2021, at 1:41 pm Pacific Time.