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Tigers 2023 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Tigers Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.013)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Tyler Alexander, actual: 181 172 44 10 0 8 78 5 0 1 2 1 689
Tyler Alexander, projected: 183 170 46 9 1 7 79 9 0 2 2 0 781
Matthew Boyd, actual: 303 276 69 15 0 11 117 25 0 0 2 0 708
Matthew Boyd, projected: 307 277 71 14 2 13 126 23 1 2 3 0 787
Beau Brieske, actual: 152 139 36 9 0 4 57 12 0 1 0 0 708
Beau Brieske, projected: 154 141 34 6 0 6 58 12 0 1 0 0 688
Braden Bristo, actual: 20 17 5 0 0 0 5 3 0 0 0 0 970
Braden Bristo, projected: 20 18 3 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 394
José Cisnero, actual: 267 233 63 9 1 10 104 25 1 2 5 1 892
José Cisnero, projected: 271 232 58 11 1 6 90 31 1 2 4 0 735
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Miguel Díaz, actual: 54 49 8 2 0 0 10 5 0 0 0 0 233
Miguel Díaz, projected: 55 47 11 3 1 2 21 6 0 0 1 0 833
Mason Englert, actual: 253 230 67 14 2 12 121 17 2 2 2 0 1045
Mason Englert, projected: 256 233 68 14 2 12 123 17 2 2 2 0 1051
Alex Faedo, actual: 262 240 48 13 0 12 97 20 0 1 1 0 587
Alex Faedo, projected: 266 239 58 15 0 10 103 24 0 2 1 0 742
Jason Foley, actual: 276 259 65 13 2 2 88 15 0 1 1 0 469
Jason Foley, projected: 280 261 70 12 1 2 93 15 0 0 3 0 539
Sawyer Gipson-Long, actual: 82 74 14 4 1 2 26 8 0 0 0 0 531
Sawyer Gipson-Long, projected: 83 75 14 4 1 2 26 8 0 0 0 0 517
Brenan Hanifee, actual: 23 23 8 1 0 1 12 0 0 0 0 0 1029
Brenan Hanifee, projected: 23 23 8 1 0 1 12 0 0 0 0 0 1029
Garrett Hill, actual: 80 63 19 6 0 4 37 14 0 1 1 1 1547
Garrett Hill, projected: 81 69 17 4 0 3 29 10 0 0 1 0 882
Tyler Holton, actual: 324 303 56 9 0 9 92 18 1 1 1 0 355
Tyler Holton, projected: 328 307 58 9 0 9 94 18 1 1 2 0 378
Carson Kelly, actual: 6 6 4 0 0 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 7079
Carson Kelly, projected: 6 6 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 2130
Alex Lange, actual: 288 232 43 12 0 6 73 45 0 4 6 1 663
Alex Lange, projected: 292 245 51 10 1 6 83 37 1 2 6 0 665
Zach Logue, actual: 49 47 13 2 0 3 24 2 0 0 0 0 937
Zach Logue, projected: 50 45 13 3 0 3 25 4 0 0 0 0 1042
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Michael Lorenzen, actual: 418 382 89 16 1 11 140 27 3 3 2 1 514
Michael Lorenzen, projected: 424 376 93 18 1 11 147 40 2 2 4 0 665
Matt Manning, actual: 316 283 60 9 2 11 106 21 1 5 5 1 592
Matt Manning, projected: 320 287 70 13 1 9 113 24 0 5 3 1 698
Zach McKinstry, actual: 6 6 3 1 0 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 3306
Zach McKinstry, projected: 6 6 3 1 0 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 3306
Anthony Misiewicz, actual: 5 5 4 1 0 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 17529
Anthony Misiewicz, projected: 5 5 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 361
Reese Olson, actual: 422 386 83 13 3 14 144 33 0 2 1 0 577
Reese Olson, projected: 428 391 84 13 3 14 146 33 0 2 1 0 574
Eduardo Rodriguez, actual: 621 563 128 25 2 15 202 48 1 6 3 0 556
Eduardo Rodriguez, projected: 629 569 141 28 2 18 227 51 2 4 4 0 674
Jonathan Schoop, actual: 5 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 180
Jonathan Schoop, projected: 5 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 180
Zack Short, actual: 32 30 12 1 0 0 13 1 0 0 1 0 1353
Zack Short, projected: 32 30 12 1 0 0 13 1 0 0 1 0 1353
Chasen Shreve, actual: 180 162 45 6 2 6 73 12 1 4 1 0 872
Chasen Shreve, projected: 182 159 37 7 1 7 68 20 1 2 1 0 740
Tarik Skubal, actual: 310 292 58 11 3 4 87 14 0 1 3 0 353
Tarik Skubal, projected: 314 288 67 14 1 12 118 21 1 2 2 0 628
Spencer Turnbull, actual: 145 127 37 10 0 5 62 15 0 0 3 0 1059
Spencer Turnbull, projected: 147 130 33 7 1 3 50 13 0 1 3 0 752
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Andrew Vasquez, actual: 49 37 11 0 2 0 15 9 1 0 2 0 1373
Andrew Vasquez, projected: 50 42 10 1 1 1 14 5 0 0 2 0 752
Will Vest, actual: 199 185 40 9 1 3 60 13 0 0 0 1 482
Will Vest, projected: 202 178 45 9 0 4 66 17 1 3 2 1 684
Joey Wentz, actual: 492 444 131 26 2 25 236 47 0 1 0 0 1103
Joey Wentz, projected: 499 447 122 26 3 21 219 48 0 3 1 0 964
Brendan White, actual: 177 155 40 8 0 4 60 15 1 1 5 0 776
Brendan White, projected: 179 157 41 8 0 4 61 15 1 1 5 0 773
Trey Wingenter, actual: 76 65 16 4 0 2 26 7 0 1 3 0 816
Trey Wingenter, projected: 77 65 13 3 0 2 22 9 0 1 2 0 634
Tigers, Actual: 6073 5490 1320 259 24 187 2188 476 12 38 50 7 674
Tigers, Projected: 6154 5523 1356 264 24 189 2243 514 14 40 56 2 705
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.240 0.246
Slugging Average: 0.399 0.406
Walks (per PA): 0.078 0.084
SOs (per PA): 0.226 0.218
On-Base Average: 0.305 0.314
Power Factor: 1.658 1.654
OPS: 0.703 0.720
TPP Runs (to date): 740 717

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 23 greater than Projected Runs.





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