Skip to main content 

Owing to the width of most of the many data tables on this site, it is best viewed from a desktop computer. If you are on a mobile device (phone or tablet), you will obtain a better viewing experience by rotating your device a quarter-turn (to get the so-called “panorama” screen view).


The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site




Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.
 Click here to email us. 



You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   this page
(Click on any image above to see it at full size.)
You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   this page
(Click on any image above to see it at full size.)

You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   this page
You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   this page
You can get a site directory by clicking on the “hamburger” icon () in the upper right of this page.
Or you can search this site with Google (standard Google-search rules apply).

Search term(s):



Tigers 2025 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2025 Tigers Projected Pitching

Through games of Saturday, 21 June 2025.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.994)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Tarik Skubal, actual: 15 365 347 70 9 0 6 97 12 22 288 1 2 3 0 0 2 327
Tarik Skubal, projected: 15 363 336 74 14 1 11 122 20 34 288 1 2 3 2 0 3 497
Jack Flaherty, actual: 15 327 292 64 13 1 15 124 31 43 235 0 1 3 2 0 3 702
Jack Flaherty, projected: 15 325 290 65 11 1 11 112 28 34 235 1 1 4 2 1 2 616
Casey Mize, actual: 12 280 259 65 8 1 9 102 18 24 201 1 2 0 3 0 5 681
Casey Mize, projected: 12 278 254 65 10 2 10 109 19 32 201 0 2 3 3 0 5 756
Keider Montero, actual: 11 240 217 58 7 1 11 100 20 26 168 1 0 2 0 0 1 797
Keider Montero, projected: 11 238 218 58 8 1 11 101 19 29 168 0 0 2 0 0 3 781
Jackson Jobe, actual: 10 218 185 46 9 1 7 78 27 24 147 2 2 2 0 0 5 836
Jackson Jobe, projected: 10 217 184 44 8 1 6 73 26 22 147 2 2 2 0 0 5 761
Reese Olson, actual: 9 201 177 38 8 0 2 52 19 16 146 1 0 4 1 1 3 465
Reese Olson, projected: 9 200 181 41 8 1 4 63 16 21 146 0 2 2 2 0 3 576
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Brant Hurter, actual: 23 165 144 34 5 0 3 48 13 17 118 2 1 5 3 3 2 576
Brant Hurter, projected: 23 164 150 33 5 0 3 49 9 14 118 1 1 2 2 1 1 472
Brenan Hanifee, actual: 33 168 156 44 11 2 2 65 10 24 114 0 1 1 3 1 3 829
Brenan Hanifee, projected: 33 167 157 42 9 2 3 63 9 18 114 0 1 1 2 1 3 756
Will Vest, actual: 33 144 133 26 2 1 2 36 10 11 108 0 1 0 2 1 0 410
Will Vest, projected: 33 143 128 31 5 0 2 43 11 14 108 1 2 1 1 1 1 525
Tyler Holton, actual: 31 144 132 37 3 0 8 64 8 19 103 1 3 0 1 0 2 846
Tyler Holton, projected: 31 143 133 26 4 0 4 43 7 11 103 1 1 1 1 0 1 449
Tommy Kahnle, actual: 31 120 110 15 2 0 3 26 9 6 96 0 0 1 1 0 0 294
Tommy Kahnle, projected: 31 119 104 21 5 0 3 36 13 13 96 0 1 1 1 1 1 512
Carlos Hernández, actual: 2 11 10 3 1 0 0 4 1 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 863
Carlos Hernández, projected: 2 11 9 2 1 0 0 4 1 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 486
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Chase Lee, actual: 19 88 78 15 1 2 2 26 6 6 70 0 2 2 0 0 1 420
Chase Lee, projected: 19 87 77 15 1 2 2 26 6 6 70 0 2 2 0 0 1 426
Beau Brieske, actual: 22 103 88 24 4 0 5 43 12 20 66 1 2 0 1 1 3 1122
Beau Brieske, projected: 22 102 91 22 4 0 3 37 9 12 66 0 1 0 0 0 1 729
John Brebbia, actual: 19 93 77 22 7 0 3 38 11 18 56 0 1 3 0 0 2 1258
John Brebbia, projected: 19 92 84 20 5 0 3 34 7 10 56 0 1 1 0 1 1 810
Sawyer Gipson-Long, actual: 4 71 65 17 5 0 3 31 2 10 53 0 3 1 0 0 1 716
Sawyer Gipson-Long, projected: 4 71 64 14 4 0 2 26 5 8 53 0 1 0 1 0 1 567
Sean Guenther, actual: 9 43 38 10 2 0 0 12 5 7 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 493
Sean Guenther, projected: 9 43 38 10 2 0 0 13 3 6 31 0 0 1 0 0 0 468
Kenta Maeda, actual: 7 43 33 9 3 0 1 15 6 8 24 0 0 3 0 0 1 1382
Kenta Maeda, projected: 7 43 39 9 2 0 1 16 3 5 24 0 0 0 0 0 1 741
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Dylan Smith, actual: 4 23 19 4 1 0 0 5 3 2 18 0 0 1 0 0 0 307
Dylan Smith, projected: 4 23 19 4 1 0 0 5 3 2 18 0 0 1 0 0 0 324
Matt Gage, actual: 4 19 17 5 1 0 0 6 2 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 653
Matt Gage, projected: 4 19 16 3 1 0 0 5 2 1 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 324
Tyler Owens, actual: 2 7 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 79
Tyler Owens, projected: 2 7 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 81
Tomás Nido, actual: 1 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 1 1 0 0 0 264
Tomás Nido, projected: 1 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 1 1 0 0 0 324
Bailey Horn, actual: 1 5 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 190
Bailey Horn, projected: 1 5 4 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 648
Jake Rogers, actual: 1 5 4 2 1 0 0 3 0 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 2389
Jake Rogers, projected: 1 5 4 2 1 0 0 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1458
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Tigers, Actual: 78 2889 2597 610 103 9 82 977 225 306 2080 10 23 32 17 7 34 302
Tigers, Projected: 78 2871 2591 603 109 11 79 986 217 295 2080 7 21 28 17 6 33 293


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.235 0.233
Slugging Average: 0.376 0.381
Walks (per PA): 0.078 0.076
SOs (per PA): 0.228 0.225
On-Base Average: 0.301 0.297
Power Factor: 1.602 1.635
OPS: 0.678 0.677
Runs Calculated from Actual Stats: 302
Runs Calculated from Projected Stats: 293
Actual Runs Scored: 306

Return to the page top. ↑




  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:



Want detailed, careful, unhysterical analysis of the effects of “Performance-Enhancing Drugs” in baseball? Click here to visit the Steroids & Baseball web site.

All content copyright © 2002 - 2025 by The Owlcroft Company.

This web page is strictly compliant with the WHATWG (Web Hypertext Application Technology Working Group) HyperText Markup Language (HTML5) Protocol versionless “Living Standard” and the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium) Cascading Style Sheets (CSS3) Protocol v3  — because we care about interoperability. Click on the logos below to test us!



This page was last modified on Sunday, 22 June 2025, at 4:22 pm Pacific Time.