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Royals 2026 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2026 Royals Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 27 September 2026.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.987)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Luinder Avila, actual: 21 309 261 71 17 1 7 111 42 43 210 2 2 2 0 0 4 804
Luinder Avila, projected: 21 305 259 65 17 1 6 101 40 38 210 2 3 2 0 0 4 733
Spencer Bivens, actual: 2 12 10 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 596
Spencer Bivens, projected: 2 12 11 3 0 0 0 5 1 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 405
Mason Black, actual: 17 142 119 30 3 0 6 51 20 16 94 0 1 2 0 0 0 895
Mason Black, projected: 17 140 122 34 6 0 6 60 15 20 94 0 1 2 1 0 1 991
Kris Bubic, actual: 9 207 180 36 8 1 4 58 26 23 151 0 0 1 0 0 5 517
Kris Bubic, projected: 9 204 181 46 9 1 6 74 20 24 151 0 2 2 2 0 1 720
Aaron Bummer, actual: 2 11 10 6 2 0 1 11 1 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 6833
Aaron Bummer, projected: 2 11 9 2 0 0 0 3 1 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 648
Noah Cameron, actual: 31 746 673 160 39 3 21 268 58 87 532 4 6 5 7 1 5 664
Noah Cameron, projected: 31 736 668 152 32 3 22 256 57 75 532 3 3 5 7 1 4 611
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Eric Cerantola, actual: 4 27 17 4 0 0 2 10 10 6 16 0 0 0 0 0 3 1587
Eric Cerantola, projected: 4 27 17 4 0 0 2 10 10 6 16 0 0 0 0 0 3 1580
Steven Cruz, actual: 56 246 221 54 6 0 14 102 20 30 176 2 0 3 2 2 2 764
Steven Cruz, projected: 56 243 216 48 8 0 9 85 23 27 176 1 0 2 1 1 1 622
José Cuas, actual: 24 108 92 26 5 0 0 31 15 7 70 0 1 0 0 1 1 777
José Cuas, projected: 24 107 89 24 4 0 2 36 14 11 70 0 1 3 0 1 1 864
Randy Dobnak, actual: 15 321 286 78 12 1 7 113 26 31 223 2 3 4 0 0 7 735
Randy Dobnak, projected: 15 317 288 80 14 1 8 120 21 38 223 1 2 4 3 0 5 767
Carlos Durán, actual: 2 9 6 2 0 0 0 2 3 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009
Carlos Durán, projected: 2 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 4 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2754
Lucas Erceg, actual: 52 228 187 55 12 0 5 82 32 35 145 1 2 6 1 2 1 997
Lucas Erceg, projected: 52 225 196 48 11 1 3 70 23 26 145 0 1 5 1 2 1 692
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Carlos Estévez, actual: 1 7 5 4 0 0 1 7 2 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 22705
Carlos Estévez, projected: 1 7 6 2 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3078
Bailey Falter, actual: 5 57 51 24 3 0 4 39 6 15 29 0 0 0 0 0 1 2636
Bailey Falter, projected: 5 56 51 14 3 0 2 24 4 8 29 0 0 0 0 0 1 1037
Tony Gonsolin, actual: 1 15 12 4 1 0 1 8 3 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1950
Tony Gonsolin, projected: 1 15 13 3 1 0 0 5 1 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 324
Anthony Gose, actual: 14 51 47 11 3 0 1 17 2 3 41 1 1 0 0 0 0 372
Anthony Gose, projected: 14 50 44 10 4 0 2 19 5 6 41 0 1 0 0 0 0 625
Nolan Hoffman, actual: 12 46 39 11 3 0 0 14 3 4 31 1 0 3 0 0 0 648
Nolan Hoffman, projected: 12 45 37 12 3 0 0 15 4 6 31 1 1 2 0 0 0 851
Craig Kimbrel, actual: 13 52 44 11 0 0 0 11 6 7 37 0 1 1 1 1 2 568
Craig Kimbrel, projected: 13 51 45 8 1 0 1 13 5 4 37 0 0 1 0 0 1 424
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Stephen Kolek, actual: 10 224 210 55 11 2 8 94 12 30 162 0 0 2 3 0 3 720
Stephen Kolek, projected: 10 221 203 52 8 1 5 78 14 27 162 0 1 3 1 0 2 632
Alex Lange, actual: 59 275 235 65 11 2 13 119 33 47 180 0 1 6 0 0 9 1070
Alex Lange, projected: 59 271 227 52 10 1 7 86 36 35 180 1 2 5 3 0 7 813
Seth Lugo, actual: 32 751 677 200 46 5 23 325 54 107 517 3 8 9 2 0 7 871
Seth Lugo, projected: 32 741 675 166 32 4 22 272 50 79 517 3 6 7 4 3 6 668
Daniel Lynch IV, actual: 56 356 324 73 18 1 11 126 26 43 258 1 1 4 3 0 2 613
Daniel Lynch IV, projected: 56 351 313 82 15 1 12 133 30 43 258 1 3 4 3 1 4 758
Luke Maile, actual: 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Luke Maile, projected: 1 3 3 1 0 0 0 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 486
Easton McGee, actual: 7 46 42 16 5 0 3 30 4 9 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 1596
Easton McGee, projected: 7 45 42 11 3 0 1 18 3 6 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 717
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Nick Mears, actual: 21 83 70 18 5 1 2 31 11 11 58 1 1 0 0 1 0 734
Nick Mears, projected: 21 82 71 17 3 1 2 28 9 11 58 0 2 0 0 0 1 748
Eli Morgan, actual: 16 91 80 24 3 0 5 42 9 11 58 0 0 2 1 0 2 1193
Eli Morgan, projected: 16 90 82 20 5 0 4 36 6 11 58 0 0 1 1 0 2 830
Nate Pearson, actual: 26 116 96 21 7 0 1 31 14 13 78 0 1 5 0 0 1 656
Nate Pearson, projected: 26 115 98 24 5 0 4 41 13 15 78 0 2 2 1 1 3 841
Cole Ragans, actual: 8 151 127 27 5 0 10 62 23 20 106 0 1 0 1 0 3 872
Cole Ragans, projected: 8 149 133 29 6 1 4 48 14 16 106 0 1 1 1 0 2 608
Josh Rojas, actual: 1 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 335
Josh Rojas, projected: 1 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 324
John Schreiber, actual: 55 203 177 41 9 0 7 71 22 23 148 1 2 1 1 3 4 633
John Schreiber, projected: 55 200 179 42 9 1 5 67 18 21 148 0 1 2 1 1 1 604
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Connor Seabold, actual: 5 28 22 7 3 0 0 10 4 6 15 0 0 2 0 0 0 1477
Connor Seabold, projected: 5 28 24 8 2 0 1 14 2 5 15 0 0 1 0 0 0 1296
Mitch Spence, actual: 3 56 46 19 3 1 3 33 9 22 28 0 1 0 0 0 0 2575
Mitch Spence, projected: 3 55 50 14 3 0 2 24 4 8 28 0 0 1 0 0 1 1188
Matt Strahm, actual: 41 161 145 39 8 0 12 83 14 29 107 0 0 2 0 1 1 1085
Matt Strahm, projected: 41 159 143 32 7 0 5 55 11 17 107 1 1 3 1 1 2 652
Connor Thomas, actual: 17 78 72 17 3 0 0 20 3 5 58 0 1 2 0 0 0 400
Connor Thomas, projected: 17 77 67 23 3 0 4 37 6 17 58 0 3 2 0 0 0 1163
Tyler Tolbert, actual: 5 33 29 17 1 0 4 30 3 13 14 0 0 1 0 0 0 4483
Tyler Tolbert, projected: 5 33 29 17 1 0 4 30 3 13 14 0 0 1 0 0 0 4471
Michael Wacha, actual: 32 812 745 168 40 6 30 310 54 82 602 2 4 7 8 1 7 617
Michael Wacha, projected: 32 802 729 182 38 4 23 298 58 87 602 4 5 5 6 2 7 638
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Beck Way, actual: 19 105 92 27 1 0 4 40 10 13 70 0 2 1 0 0 2 956
Beck Way, projected: 19 104 91 27 1 0 4 39 10 13 70 0 2 1 0 0 2 963
Royals, Actual: 162 6170 5456 1424 293 24 210 2395 582 810 4273 21 40 71 30 13 75 796
Royals, Projected: 162 6090 5420 1357 264 21 178 2208 536 721 4273 18 44 67 37 14 63 718


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.261 0.250
Slugging Average: 0.439 0.407
Walks (per PA): 0.094 0.088
SOs (per PA): 0.190 0.212
On-Base Average: 0.338 0.323
Power Factor: 1.682 1.627
OPS: 0.777 0.730
Runs Calculated from Actual Stats: 796
Runs Calculated from Projected Stats: 718
Actual Runs Scored: 810

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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, at 5:31 am Pacific Time.