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Dodgers 2025 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2025 Dodgers Projected Pitching

Through games of Monday, 23 June 2025.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.989)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, actual: 15 340 306 62 13 0 9 102 30 29 254 1 1 2 2 0 4 493
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, projected: 15 336 307 67 16 1 8 107 25 29 254 1 2 1 2 0 3 518
Dustin May, actual: 14 340 298 72 11 4 11 124 32 43 236 2 1 7 2 3 13 779
Dustin May, projected: 14 336 302 65 11 1 9 106 27 35 236 1 1 6 3 1 9 602
Ben Casparius, actual: 24 213 200 44 10 0 3 63 11 19 158 1 1 0 1 0 2 451
Ben Casparius, projected: 24 211 196 45 10 0 3 62 13 19 158 1 1 0 1 0 3 493
Jack Dreyer, actual: 30 162 142 30 6 2 1 43 15 15 119 1 4 0 0 1 4 499
Jack Dreyer, projected: 30 160 140 30 6 2 1 43 15 15 119 1 4 0 0 1 4 508
Landon Knack, actual: 9 172 150 39 7 1 10 78 18 24 116 0 2 2 1 0 3 1018
Landon Knack, projected: 9 170 154 36 6 1 9 71 13 19 116 0 1 2 1 0 4 846
Tony Gonsolin, actual: 7 157 135 33 3 0 9 63 18 21 108 1 0 3 0 0 2 861
Tony Gonsolin, projected: 7 155 139 28 6 0 5 49 14 15 108 1 1 1 1 0 2 579
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Tanner Scott, actual: 37 136 131 30 4 2 5 53 4 18 107 0 1 0 0 0 1 494
Tanner Scott, projected: 37 135 115 25 4 1 3 38 16 14 107 0 1 2 1 1 1 560
Anthony Banda, actual: 35 139 120 24 2 0 5 41 18 13 103 0 0 1 0 3 7 557
Anthony Banda, projected: 35 138 121 33 7 1 4 52 13 17 103 0 1 2 1 2 2 768
Roki Sasaki, actual: 8 154 129 29 4 1 6 53 22 18 103 0 0 3 0 0 4 848
Roki Sasaki, projected: 8 152 128 29 4 1 6 52 22 18 103 0 0 3 0 0 4 851
Clayton Kershaw, actual: 7 136 123 31 10 0 4 53 12 14 98 0 1 0 0 0 0 659
Clayton Kershaw, projected: 7 135 124 26 5 0 3 40 8 10 98 1 0 1 1 0 1 440
Alex Vesia, actual: 37 128 115 24 5 0 7 50 10 11 96 0 1 2 0 1 3 643
Alex Vesia, projected: 37 127 110 21 4 0 4 37 14 12 96 1 1 1 1 1 2 543
Lou Trivino, actual: 15 70 58 16 3 0 1 22 5 6 49 1 2 4 0 1 2 716
Lou Trivino, projected: 15 69 60 14 2 0 2 22 7 8 49 0 0 1 1 1 1 659
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Matt Sauer, actual: 9 120 108 32 5 1 5 54 8 21 83 0 2 2 1 0 0 925
Matt Sauer, projected: 9 119 104 32 5 1 5 54 11 20 83 0 2 2 1 0 0 1062
Luis García, actual: 26 116 100 29 7 2 1 43 15 14 78 1 0 0 0 4 1 774
Luis García, projected: 26 115 101 26 5 0 2 38 12 13 78 0 1 1 1 1 2 729
Justin Wrobleski, actual: 5 101 92 23 4 0 4 39 6 15 73 1 2 0 0 0 2 702
Justin Wrobleski, projected: 5 100 90 22 5 0 5 43 9 15 73 0 1 0 1 0 2 778
Kirby Yates, actual: 28 96 88 21 12 0 4 45 7 11 68 0 0 1 0 0 2 779
Kirby Yates, projected: 28 95 84 17 3 0 3 29 9 9 68 0 1 2 1 1 3 619
Chris Stratton, actual: 3 17 15 3 1 0 2 10 2 3 12 0 0 0 0 0 1 1111
Chris Stratton, projected: 3 17 15 4 1 0 0 6 2 2 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 540
José Ureña, actual: 2 13 12 4 2 0 0 6 1 1 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 704
José Ureña, projected: 2 13 11 3 1 0 0 5 1 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 567
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Tyler Glasnow, actual: 5 77 65 12 0 0 4 24 11 9 54 0 0 1 0 0 1 702
Tyler Glasnow, projected: 5 76 68 14 3 0 2 25 7 8 54 0 0 0 1 0 3 583
Yoendrys Gómez, actual: 3 25 23 10 1 0 2 17 2 7 13 0 0 0 1 0 0 2557
Yoendrys Gómez, projected: 3 25 20 5 1 0 1 9 3 3 13 0 1 1 0 0 0 1350
Blake Snell, actual: 2 46 37 10 3 0 0 13 8 7 27 0 1 0 2 0 0 1221
Blake Snell, projected: 2 46 40 8 2 0 1 14 5 4 27 0 0 0 0 0 1 567
Blake Treinen, actual: 8 36 32 8 1 0 1 12 3 3 24 0 0 1 0 0 5 933
Blake Treinen, projected: 8 36 32 7 1 0 1 10 3 3 24 0 0 0 0 0 1 608
Ryan Loutos, actual: 2 16 13 4 1 0 1 8 2 5 9 0 0 1 0 0 0 1646
Ryan Loutos, projected: 2 16 13 4 1 0 0 6 2 4 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1134
Evan Phillips, actual: 7 22 20 4 0 0 0 4 2 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 2 329
Evan Phillips, projected: 7 22 19 4 1 0 0 6 2 2 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 347
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Kiké Hernández, actual: 5 37 28 11 2 0 1 16 8 11 16 0 1 0 1 0 0 3073
Kiké Hernández, projected: 5 37 30 11 2 0 1 17 6 10 16 0 1 0 1 0 0 2527
Michael Kopech, actual: 6 22 18 3 0 0 0 3 4 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 395
Michael Kopech, projected: 6 22 19 4 1 0 1 7 3 2 15 0 0 0 0 0 1 729
Bobby Miller, actual: 2 28 25 11 2 0 2 19 2 7 15 0 0 1 0 1 0 2213
Bobby Miller, projected: 2 28 25 6 1 0 1 11 2 4 15 0 0 0 0 0 1 891
Noah Davis, actual: 4 21 16 4 0 0 1 7 2 4 14 0 0 3 0 0 1 960
Noah Davis, projected: 4 21 18 6 1 0 1 10 2 4 14 0 0 1 0 0 0 1175
Emmet Sheehan, actual: 1 15 15 3 1 0 0 4 0 1 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 224
Emmet Sheehan, projected: 1 15 13 3 1 0 1 5 1 2 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 648
J.P. Feyereisen, actual: 2 14 13 8 1 0 1 12 1 4 6 0 0 0 1 1 0 4569
J.P. Feyereisen, projected: 2 14 12 2 0 0 0 4 2 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 567
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Miguel Rojas, actual: 2 19 18 9 3 0 3 21 0 7 9 0 0 1 0 0 0 3818
Miguel Rojas, projected: 2 19 17 7 3 0 2 14 1 5 9 0 0 1 1 0 0 3078
Jack Little, actual: 1 11 9 4 0 1 0 6 1 2 6 0 0 1 0 0 0 2298
Jack Little, projected: 1 11 9 4 0 1 0 6 1 2 6 0 0 1 0 0 0 2268
Shohei Ohtani, actual: 2 9 8 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 6 0 1 0 1 0 0 1103
Shohei Ohtani, projected: 2 9 8 2 0 0 0 3 1 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 567
Will Klein, actual: 1 7 5 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 841
Will Klein, projected: 1 7 6 2 1 0 0 3 1 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 648
Dodgers, Actual: 79 3015 2667 650 125 14 103 1112 281 364 2118 9 22 36 13 16 60 361
Dodgers, Projected: 79 2987 2650 612 120 10 84 1004 273 329 2118 7 20 29 20 9 50 321


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.244 0.231
Slugging Average: 0.417 0.379
Walks (per PA): 0.093 0.091
SOs (per PA): 0.229 0.238
On-Base Average: 0.322 0.308
Power Factor: 1.711 1.641
OPS: 0.739 0.686
Runs Calculated from Actual Stats: 361
Runs Calculated from Projected Stats: 321
Actual Runs Scored: 364

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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 24 June 2025, at 4:01 am Pacific Time.