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Twins 2026 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2026 Twins Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 27 September 2026.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.982)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Orlando Arcia, actual: 19 50 48 13 1 0 1 17 2 0 0 0 0 431
Orlando Arcia, projected: 19 49 45 11 2 0 1 17 3 0 0 0 0 527
Josh Bell, actual: 154 631 568 145 28 1 21 238 52 0 6 4 1 700
Josh Bell, projected: 154 620 543 139 27 2 23 239 67 0 5 3 1 799
Byron Buxton, actual: 93 408 370 94 18 1 25 189 30 0 2 6 0 922
Byron Buxton, projected: 93 401 364 90 21 3 20 178 28 1 2 5 0 857
Victor Caratini, actual: 106 382 327 72 10 0 7 103 34 0 8 13 0 593
Victor Caratini, projected: 106 375 330 79 12 0 9 120 32 0 4 8 0 615
Kody Clemens, actual: 145 583 531 127 22 7 27 244 39 3 3 7 0 749
Kody Clemens, projected: 145 572 524 115 23 5 25 224 37 2 3 6 0 620
Kaelen Culpepper, actual: 33 128 117 32 5 0 3 46 6 0 1 4 0 693
Kaelen Culpepper, projected: 33 126 115 31 5 0 3 45 6 0 1 4 0 680
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Kyler Fedko, actual: 14 19 16 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 21
Kyler Fedko, projected: 14 19 16 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 21
Gabriel González, actual: 7 11 8 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 0 2068
Gabriel González, projected: 7 11 8 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 0 2069
Tristan Gray, actual: 66 188 173 39 5 0 4 56 10 1 3 1 0 503
Tristan Gray, projected: 66 185 169 37 7 0 5 58 11 1 2 1 0 494
Alex Jackson, actual: 33 73 69 21 4 0 1 28 2 0 0 2 0 826
Alex Jackson, projected: 33 72 65 11 3 0 2 20 5 0 0 2 0 407
Ryan Jeffers, actual: 92 369 317 81 19 2 14 146 46 0 2 3 1 961
Ryan Jeffers, projected: 92 362 318 77 17 1 13 136 34 1 2 7 0 747
Walker Jenkins, actual: 26 93 84 19 2 0 4 33 7 1 0 1 0 588
Walker Jenkins, projected: 26 91 82 19 2 0 4 32 7 1 0 1 0 579
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Luke Keaschall, actual: 152 620 528 149 28 4 10 215 59 2 8 23 0 989
Luke Keaschall, projected: 152 609 523 150 31 3 10 218 57 1 7 21 0 989
Ryan Kreidler, actual: 105 267 243 53 9 3 8 92 21 1 0 2 0 526
Ryan Kreidler, projected: 105 262 236 43 5 2 5 69 20 3 1 2 0 345
Trevor Larnach, actual: 122 433 383 103 23 1 13 167 45 1 0 4 0 832
Trevor Larnach, projected: 122 425 375 92 20 1 13 154 43 0 3 4 0 728
Brooks Lee, actual: 156 631 586 148 25 3 24 251 37 1 3 4 0 707
Brooks Lee, projected: 156 620 574 139 21 2 20 224 36 0 5 4 0 604
Royce Lewis, actual: 125 509 463 105 24 1 15 176 38 0 5 3 0 650
Royce Lewis, projected: 125 500 457 112 23 0 20 196 37 0 4 2 0 714
Austin Martin, actual: 118 358 302 69 17 0 3 95 45 0 3 8 0 649
Austin Martin, projected: 118 352 305 76 19 1 2 103 38 2 1 5 0 606
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
James Outman, actual: 49 70 64 10 4 1 0 16 5 0 0 1 0 243
James Outman, projected: 49 69 60 12 2 0 3 23 7 0 0 1 0 645
Alan Roden, actual: 32 94 79 23 5 0 1 31 12 1 2 0 0 1148
Alan Roden, projected: 32 92 80 18 4 0 1 27 7 0 2 2 0 581
Emmanuel Rodríguez, actual: 13 48 45 8 2 1 2 18 3 0 0 0 0 612
Emmanuel Rodríguez, projected: 13 47 44 8 2 1 2 18 3 0 0 0 0 639
Ben Ross, actual: 10 21 21 4 2 1 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 342
Ben Ross, projected: 10 21 21 4 2 1 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 342
Aaron Sabato, actual: 3 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33
Aaron Sabato, projected: 3 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33
Matt Wallner, actual: 34 135 120 20 3 0 4 35 10 0 0 5 0 409
Matt Wallner, projected: 34 133 113 25 6 1 7 52 14 0 0 5 0 880
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Twins, Actual: 162 6127 5468 1337 256 26 187 2206 507 11 47 92 2 727
Twins, Projected: 162 6019 5373 1290 254 23 188 2163 496 12 43 84 1 681


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.245 0.240
Slugging Average: 0.403 0.403
Walks (per PA): 0.083 0.082
SOs (per PA): 0.212 0.222
On-Base Average: 0.317 0.312
Power Factor: 1.650 1.677
OPS: 0.720 0.714
Runs Expected from Actual Stats: 727
Runs Expected from Projected Stats: 681
Actual Runs Scored: 739

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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, at 5:31 am Pacific Time.