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Twins 2026 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2026 Twins Projected Batting

Through games of Monday, 7 September 2026.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.98)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Orlando Arcia, actual: 19 50 48 13 1 0 1 17 2 0 0 0 0 431
Orlando Arcia, projected: 19 49 45 11 2 0 1 17 3 0 0 0 0 527
Josh Bell, actual: 138 563 508 130 28 1 18 214 46 0 4 4 1 703
Josh Bell, projected: 138 552 483 124 24 2 20 213 60 0 4 3 1 802
Byron Buxton, actual: 93 408 370 94 18 1 25 189 30 0 2 6 0 922
Byron Buxton, projected: 93 400 363 90 20 3 20 178 28 1 2 5 0 855
Victor Caratini, actual: 95 345 293 65 9 0 7 95 34 0 8 10 0 636
Victor Caratini, projected: 95 338 297 72 11 0 9 109 29 0 4 7 0 642
Kody Clemens, actual: 127 514 467 111 21 6 24 216 35 2 3 7 0 752
Kody Clemens, projected: 127 504 461 101 21 4 22 196 33 2 3 5 0 616
Kaelen Culpepper, actual: 26 104 95 29 5 0 3 43 6 0 1 2 0 932
Kaelen Culpepper, projected: 26 102 93 28 5 0 3 42 6 0 1 2 0 903
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Kyler Fedko, actual: 14 19 16 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 21
Kyler Fedko, projected: 14 19 16 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 21
Gabriel González, actual: 7 11 8 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 0 2068
Gabriel González, projected: 7 11 8 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 0 2069
Tristan Gray, actual: 66 188 173 39 5 0 4 56 10 1 3 1 0 503
Tristan Gray, projected: 66 184 169 37 7 0 5 58 11 1 2 1 0 500
Alex Jackson, actual: 32 72 68 21 4 0 1 28 2 0 0 2 0 855
Alex Jackson, projected: 32 71 64 11 3 0 2 19 5 0 0 2 0 419
Ryan Jeffers, actual: 80 322 275 73 17 2 14 136 42 0 1 3 1 1074
Ryan Jeffers, projected: 80 316 277 67 14 1 12 119 30 1 1 6 0 758
Walker Jenkins, actual: 10 35 29 4 2 0 1 9 5 0 0 1 0 475
Walker Jenkins, projected: 10 34 28 4 2 0 1 9 5 0 0 1 0 506
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Luke Keaschall, actual: 135 545 465 128 24 1 9 181 52 1 7 20 0 948
Luke Keaschall, projected: 135 534 460 130 27 1 9 186 50 1 6 18 0 962
Ryan Kreidler, actual: 92 236 216 47 8 3 6 79 17 1 0 2 0 502
Ryan Kreidler, projected: 92 231 209 38 5 2 4 58 17 3 1 2 0 336
Trevor Larnach, actual: 118 421 373 99 22 1 12 159 43 1 0 4 0 800
Trevor Larnach, projected: 118 413 364 89 19 1 13 148 42 0 3 4 0 725
Brooks Lee, actual: 138 556 516 129 22 3 23 226 34 1 2 3 0 719
Brooks Lee, projected: 138 545 505 121 18 2 18 198 33 0 4 3 0 597
Royce Lewis, actual: 109 445 401 94 22 1 14 160 37 0 4 3 0 719
Royce Lewis, projected: 109 436 398 99 20 0 18 174 33 0 3 2 0 741
Austin Martin, actual: 110 335 282 68 17 0 3 94 43 0 3 7 0 722
Austin Martin, projected: 110 328 285 73 18 1 2 99 36 2 1 4 0 652
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
James Outman, actual: 49 70 64 10 4 1 0 16 5 0 0 1 0 243
James Outman, projected: 49 69 60 12 2 0 3 23 7 0 0 1 0 645
Alan Roden, actual: 28 79 67 17 4 0 0 21 9 1 2 0 0 844
Alan Roden, projected: 28 77 68 14 3 0 1 20 6 0 2 2 0 553
Ben Ross, actual: 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ben Ross, projected: 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Matt Wallner, actual: 34 135 120 20 3 0 4 35 10 0 0 5 0 409
Matt Wallner, projected: 34 132 113 25 6 1 7 52 14 0 0 5 0 885
Twins, Actual: 144 5457 4858 1193 236 20 169 1976 466 8 41 82 2 660
Twins, Projected: 144 5349 4770 1148 227 18 170 1920 452 11 38 74 1 614


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.246 0.241
Slugging Average: 0.407 0.403
Walks (per PA): 0.085 0.085
SOs (per PA): 0.210 0.222
On-Base Average: 0.320 0.314
Power Factor: 1.656 1.672
OPS: 0.726 0.716
Runs Expected from Actual Stats: 660
Runs Expected from Projected Stats: 614
Actual Runs Scored: 670

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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 8 September 2026, at 5:31 am Pacific Time.