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Mets 2023 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Mets Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.986)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Phil Bickford, actual: 114 95 21 3 1 3 35 13 2 0 4 0 750
Phil Bickford, projected: 112 99 22 5 0 4 40 11 0 1 2 0 682
Jeff Brigham, actual: 160 136 26 4 0 9 57 18 0 1 5 0 739
Jeff Brigham, projected: 158 136 32 6 0 7 59 17 0 2 3 0 796
José Butto, actual: 179 156 33 3 1 3 47 23 0 0 0 0 578
José Butto, projected: 176 155 37 3 1 4 55 22 0 0 0 0 716
Carlos Carrasco, actual: 417 371 115 24 2 18 197 38 0 2 6 0 1147
Carlos Carrasco, projected: 411 377 96 21 2 12 158 27 1 3 3 0 677
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Sam Coonrod, actual: 34 24 5 0 0 0 5 8 0 0 2 0 861
Sam Coonrod, projected: 34 28 7 1 0 1 11 4 0 0 1 0 801
John Curtiss, actual: 81 72 17 2 0 3 28 8 0 1 0 0 673
John Curtiss, projected: 80 73 18 4 0 3 29 6 0 0 1 0 692
Reed Garrett, actual: 72 64 16 3 0 3 28 6 0 1 1 0 791
Reed Garrett, projected: 71 60 20 5 0 2 32 9 0 0 1 0 1240
Trevor Gott, actual: 132 117 30 4 1 2 42 11 1 1 2 0 794
Trevor Gott, projected: 130 116 28 5 1 4 46 11 0 1 2 0 733
Luis Guillorme, actual: 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 319
Luis Guillorme, projected: 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 638
Grant Hartwig, actual: 160 138 35 8 1 3 54 15 0 1 6 0 816
Grant Hartwig, projected: 158 136 34 8 1 3 53 15 0 1 6 0 820
Tommy Hunter, actual: 106 98 28 5 1 6 53 5 0 1 2 0 998
Tommy Hunter, projected: 104 97 25 5 0 4 42 6 0 0 1 0 695
Anthony Kay, actual: 15 12 3 1 0 1 7 1 0 1 1 0 1102
Anthony Kay, projected: 15 13 3 1 0 0 6 2 0 0 0 0 570
Adam Kolarek, actual: 17 14 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 79
Adam Kolarek, projected: 17 15 4 1 0 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 515
Dominic Leone, actual: 127 111 27 4 0 7 52 11 0 4 1 0 844
Dominic Leone, projected: 125 110 28 6 1 4 47 13 0 1 1 0 774
Joey Lucchesi, actual: 195 175 44 13 0 4 69 17 1 0 2 0 618
Joey Lucchesi, projected: 192 173 43 9 1 6 73 15 1 1 1 0 679
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
T.J. McFarland, actual: 11 9 4 1 0 0 5 1 0 0 1 0 2472
T.J. McFarland, projected: 11 10 3 1 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 618
Tylor Megill, actual: 567 500 141 25 0 18 220 58 0 2 6 1 903
Tylor Megill, projected: 559 501 134 23 0 21 223 48 2 3 4 1 811
Danny Mendick, actual: 15 15 9 3 0 2 18 0 0 0 0 0 5287
Danny Mendick, projected: 15 14 7 2 0 1 14 0 0 0 1 0 3149
Tyson Miller, actual: 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 104
Tyson Miller, projected: 8 7 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 488
Zach Muckenhirn, actual: 31 27 11 4 0 0 15 2 0 1 1 0 1738
Zach Muckenhirn, projected: 31 27 11 4 0 0 15 2 0 1 1 0 1738
Vinny Nittoli, actual: 15 14 4 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 525
Vinny Nittoli, projected: 15 12 3 1 0 1 5 2 0 0 1 0 1103
Stephen Nogosek, actual: 118 100 28 5 1 6 53 14 0 2 2 0 1149
Stephen Nogosek, projected: 116 103 28 4 0 6 53 10 0 1 1 0 963
Adam Ottavino, actual: 261 221 46 8 0 7 75 29 2 1 8 0 647
Adam Ottavino, projected: 257 223 51 9 1 6 79 27 2 2 4 0 668
David Peterson, actual: 492 432 124 17 4 16 197 50 1 3 6 0 912
David Peterson, projected: 485 423 107 21 2 14 175 51 2 2 7 0 739
José Quintana, actual: 319 289 75 11 2 5 105 24 1 4 1 0 647
José Quintana, projected: 314 287 74 16 1 7 114 22 1 2 2 0 647
Brooks Raley, actual: 236 203 44 11 0 4 67 25 1 1 6 0 609
Brooks Raley, projected: 233 205 46 8 1 6 73 20 2 1 5 0 628
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Sean Reid-Foley, actual: 34 27 4 1 0 0 5 6 0 1 0 0 706
Sean Reid-Foley, projected: 34 28 7 1 0 1 11 5 0 0 0 0 861
Denyi Reyes, actual: 90 81 25 3 1 3 39 8 0 0 1 0 1040
Denyi Reyes, projected: 89 81 24 4 1 2 36 7 0 0 1 0 879
David Robertson, actual: 172 156 31 6 0 5 52 13 1 0 2 0 452
David Robertson, projected: 170 150 31 6 1 4 49 17 1 1 1 0 530
Dennis Santana, actual: 50 41 10 3 0 2 19 7 0 1 1 0 1000
Dennis Santana, projected: 49 42 10 2 0 1 15 6 0 1 1 0 771
Max Scherzer, actual: 444 409 98 15 0 23 182 30 0 2 3 0 697
Max Scherzer, projected: 438 400 88 19 2 13 148 29 2 2 4 0 540
Kodai Senga, actual: 694 606 126 21 0 17 198 77 1 4 5 1 562
Kodai Senga, projected: 684 597 124 21 0 17 195 76 1 4 5 1 564
Drew Smith, actual: 244 208 50 13 4 7 92 29 0 2 5 0 811
Drew Smith, projected: 240 214 50 11 2 9 91 22 0 2 3 0 681
Edwin Uceta, actual: 11 8 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 90
Edwin Uceta, projected: 11 9 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 473
Justin Verlander, actual: 386 352 77 17 0 9 121 31 0 2 1 0 534
Justin Verlander, projected: 380 348 78 15 2 10 126 26 1 2 3 0 541
Josh Walker, actual: 48 42 12 1 0 2 19 6 0 0 0 0 1033
Josh Walker, projected: 47 41 12 1 0 2 19 6 0 0 0 0 1088
Jimmy Yacabonis, actual: 62 54 14 4 0 2 24 6 0 1 1 0 894
Jimmy Yacabonis, projected: 61 52 15 3 0 3 26 8 0 1 1 0 1127
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Mets, Actual: 6121 5387 1335 244 19 190 2187 595 12 40 85 2 756
Mets, Projected: 6034 5366 1305 252 20 178 2135 546 16 35 67 2 691
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.248 0.243
Slugging Average: 0.406 0.398
Walks (per PA): 0.097 0.090
SOs (per PA): 0.228 0.244
On-Base Average: 0.330 0.319
Power Factor: 1.638 1.636
OPS: 0.736 0.717
TPP Runs (to date): 731 686

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 45 greater than Projected Runs.





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