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Yankees 2021 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2021 Yankees Projected Batting

Through games of Monday, 21 June 2021.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.026)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Miguel Andujar, actual: 125 120 29 1 0 5 45 4 0 1 0 0 504
Miguel Andujar, projected: 128 122 34 8 0 5 57 5 0 1 1 0 773
Jay Bruce, actual: 39 34 4 1 0 1 8 5 0 0 0 0 268
Jay Bruce, projected: 40 36 9 2 0 2 17 4 0 0 0 0 779
Nestor Cortes Jr., actual: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nestor Cortes Jr., projected: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Estevan Florial, actual: 3 3 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1015
Estevan Florial, projected: 3 3 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1015
Mike Ford, actual: 72 60 8 0 0 3 17 11 0 0 1 0 477
Mike Ford, projected: 74 64 13 3 0 4 27 8 0 0 1 0 690
Clint Frazier, actual: 195 166 32 8 0 5 55 27 0 0 2 0 527
Clint Frazier, projected: 200 176 43 10 1 7 78 20 0 1 2 0 758
Brett Gardner, actual: 182 151 32 7 2 2 49 23 4 3 1 0 605
Brett Gardner, projected: 187 162 42 7 2 4 65 20 2 1 2 0 821
Domingo German, actual: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Domingo German, projected: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chris Gittens, actual: 25 21 2 0 0 1 5 3 0 1 0 0 382
Chris Gittens, projected: 26 22 2 0 0 1 5 3 0 1 0 0 355
Aaron Hicks, actual: 126 108 21 3 0 4 36 14 0 2 2 0 559
Aaron Hicks, projected: 129 111 26 5 1 4 44 16 0 1 1 0 773
Kyle Higashioka, actual: 96 86 16 4 0 5 35 10 0 0 0 0 566
Kyle Higashioka, projected: 98 92 17 4 0 5 36 6 0 0 0 0 498
Aaron Judge, actual: 282 243 68 8 0 15 121 37 0 1 1 0 1028
Aaron Judge, projected: 289 241 66 11 1 18 132 44 0 2 2 0 1167
Ryan LaMarre, actual: 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 7
Ryan LaMarre, projected: 8 7 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 488
DJ LeMahieu, actual: 303 270 70 10 0 5 95 30 0 2 1 0 683
DJ LeMahieu, projected: 311 282 85 14 2 6 120 23 2 2 1 0 843
Rougned Odor, actual: 152 139 27 6 0 7 54 10 0 0 3 0 540
Rougned Odor, projected: 156 143 34 7 1 7 63 9 0 1 2 0 659
Gary Sanchez, actual: 200 173 41 9 0 11 83 24 0 0 3 0 846
Gary Sanchez, projected: 205 181 43 8 0 13 90 20 0 1 3 0 852
Giancarlo Stanton, actual: 213 189 50 7 0 13 96 23 0 1 0 0 915
Giancarlo Stanton, projected: 219 190 51 11 0 14 103 25 0 1 2 0 1031
Mike Tauchman, actual: 16 14 3 1 0 0 4 1 1 0 0 0 406
Mike Tauchman, projected: 16 14 3 1 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 480
Gleyber Torres, actual: 255 226 57 9 0 3 75 27 1 1 0 0 613
Gleyber Torres, projected: 262 233 62 10 0 12 109 24 1 2 2 0 861
Gio Urshela, actual: 254 238 64 12 1 9 105 15 0 1 0 0 688
Gio Urshela, projected: 261 241 66 14 0 8 104 16 0 2 2 0 717
Luke Voit, actual: 50 44 8 0 0 1 11 5 0 0 1 0 373
Luke Voit, projected: 51 45 12 2 0 3 23 6 0 0 1 0 972
Tyler Wade, actual: 46 43 10 0 1 0 12 3 0 0 0 0 411
Tyler Wade, projected: 47 42 8 2 0 1 13 4 0 0 0 0 418
Yankees, Actual: 2644 2337 543 87 4 90 908 273 6 13 15 0 653
Yankees, Projected: 2712 2409 619 120 8 114 1095 256 5 16 22 0 812
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.232 0.257
Slugging Average: 0.389 0.455
Walks (per PA): 0.103 0.094
SOs (per PA): 0.248 0.233
On-Base Average: 0.315 0.332
Power Factor: 1.672 1.769
OPS: 0.704 0.786
TOP Runs (to date): 281 355

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -74 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 22 June 2021, at 1:38 pm Pacific Time.