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Yankees 2023 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Yankees Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Albert Abreu, actual: 268 225 52 12 0 9 91 35 0 1 6 1 838
Albert Abreu, projected: 268 224 52 10 0 10 93 34 0 3 6 0 837
Matt Bowman, actual: 20 17 6 1 0 1 10 2 0 1 0 0 1519
Matt Bowman, projected: 20 18 4 1 0 0 7 2 0 0 0 0 444
Colten Brewer, actual: 34 30 6 3 0 3 18 3 0 0 1 0 830
Colten Brewer, projected: 34 29 8 2 0 1 14 4 0 0 0 0 932
Jhony Brito, actual: 372 336 82 18 2 14 146 28 0 4 4 0 694
Jhony Brito, projected: 372 336 82 18 2 14 146 28 0 4 4 0 694
Gerrit Cole, actual: 821 761 157 26 1 20 245 48 2 2 7 1 431
Gerrit Cole, projected: 821 756 170 33 3 23 277 52 4 3 6 0 531
Jimmy Cordero, actual: 132 120 25 5 1 2 38 10 0 0 2 0 485
Jimmy Cordero, projected: 132 118 28 5 1 3 43 11 0 0 3 0 676
Nestor Cortes, actual: 266 242 59 15 0 11 107 20 0 1 3 0 712
Nestor Cortes, projected: 266 243 56 11 0 11 99 20 0 1 2 0 639
Josh Donaldson, actual: 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Josh Donaldson, projected: 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Deivi García, actual: 25 20 4 3 0 1 10 4 0 1 0 0 911
Deivi García, projected: 25 22 5 1 0 1 9 2 0 0 0 0 685
Domingo Germán, actual: 444 401 83 19 2 20 166 34 0 3 6 0 638
Domingo Germán, projected: 444 405 92 21 2 19 174 33 0 2 4 0 684
Yoendrys Gómez, actual: 8 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 211
Yoendrys Gómez, projected: 8 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 211
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Ian Hamilton, actual: 239 209 45 9 1 2 62 26 0 1 3 0 467
Ian Hamilton, projected: 239 208 46 8 1 4 67 27 0 2 3 0 558
Clay Holmes, actual: 262 234 51 9 1 2 68 23 0 2 3 0 483
Clay Holmes, projected: 262 226 50 8 0 4 69 29 0 1 6 0 592
Tommy Kahnle, actual: 165 142 26 6 0 5 47 19 1 2 1 0 506
Tommy Kahnle, projected: 165 143 30 7 0 4 50 18 1 2 1 0 589
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, actual: 16 16 4 2 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 404
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, projected: 16 16 4 2 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 404
Michael King, actual: 431 390 88 13 2 10 135 32 3 1 5 0 529
Michael King, projected: 431 388 88 15 2 10 137 35 2 1 5 0 557
Matt Krook, actual: 27 20 8 1 0 1 12 6 0 1 0 0 2975
Matt Krook, projected: 27 20 8 1 0 1 12 6 0 1 0 0 2975
Jonathan Loáisiga, actual: 69 64 14 1 0 2 21 1 0 2 2 0 477
Jonathan Loáisiga, projected: 69 62 15 2 0 2 22 5 0 1 1 0 654
Ron Marinaccio, actual: 205 168 35 7 0 6 60 27 1 1 7 1 726
Ron Marinaccio, projected: 205 168 30 6 1 4 50 27 1 2 7 1 574
Zach McAllister, actual: 29 26 9 3 0 2 18 2 0 0 1 0 1946
Zach McAllister, projected: 29 26 7 2 0 1 11 2 0 0 0 0 797
Keynan Middleton, actual: 56 49 7 1 0 1 11 7 0 0 0 0 352
Keynan Middleton, projected: 56 49 12 3 0 2 21 6 0 0 0 0 700
Anthony Misiewicz, actual: 13 10 2 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 620
Anthony Misiewicz, projected: 13 12 3 1 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 527
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Frankie Montas, actual: 7 6 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 1289
Frankie Montas, projected: 7 6 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 713
Wandy Peralta, actual: 227 189 36 2 1 7 61 30 1 1 6 0 599
Wandy Peralta, projected: 227 198 48 7 1 6 74 24 1 2 2 0 697
Nick Ramirez, actual: 172 160 41 11 1 1 57 9 1 1 1 0 585
Nick Ramirez, projected: 172 155 39 8 1 4 63 14 1 2 1 0 713
Carlos Rodón, actual: 286 249 65 14 0 15 124 28 0 4 4 1 972
Carlos Rodón, projected: 286 253 59 12 1 8 96 26 1 2 3 0 672
Clarke Schmidt, actual: 694 630 169 41 1 24 284 46 0 7 11 0 825
Clarke Schmidt, projected: 694 620 162 38 1 21 264 55 3 6 11 0 783
Luis Severino, actual: 417 375 113 22 2 23 208 34 1 1 5 1 1151
Luis Severino, projected: 417 382 89 20 1 13 151 30 1 1 4 0 618
Randy Vásquez, actual: 166 142 30 7 0 5 52 18 0 1 4 1 693
Randy Vásquez, projected: 166 142 30 7 0 5 52 18 0 1 4 1 693
Luke Weaver, actual: 57 53 14 3 0 3 26 3 0 1 0 0 868
Luke Weaver, projected: 57 52 14 3 0 2 24 4 0 0 0 0 756
Ryan Weber, actual: 60 57 17 4 0 2 27 1 0 1 1 0 823
Ryan Weber, projected: 60 56 15 3 0 2 26 3 0 0 1 0 715
Greg Weissert, actual: 87 77 21 2 0 3 32 8 1 0 1 0 817
Greg Weissert, projected: 87 76 17 2 0 3 27 8 1 0 2 0 698
Yankees, Actual: 6078 5428 1272 261 15 195 2148 508 11 40 85 6 678
Yankees, Projected: 6078 5419 1266 257 17 178 2093 525 16 37 77 2 654
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.234 0.234
Slugging Average: 0.396 0.386
Walks (per PA): 0.084 0.086
SOs (per PA): 0.237 0.243
On-Base Average: 0.308 0.308
Power Factor: 1.689 1.653
OPS: 0.703 0.695
TPP Runs (to date): 698 664

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 34 greater than Projected Runs.





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