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Pirates 2023 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Pirates Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.003)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
David Bednar, actual: 277 247 53 12 2 3 78 21 3 3 3 0 463
David Bednar, projected: 278 251 54 13 2 6 87 22 2 2 2 0 506
Osvaldo Bido, actual: 236 204 55 8 1 4 77 21 0 3 8 0 866
Osvaldo Bido, projected: 237 205 55 8 1 4 77 21 0 3 8 0 857
Cody Bolton, actual: 107 90 30 8 0 3 47 15 1 0 1 0 1333
Cody Bolton, projected: 107 90 30 8 0 3 47 15 1 0 1 0 1333
Ryan Borucki, actual: 152 142 26 7 0 4 45 4 2 0 4 0 373
Ryan Borucki, projected: 152 136 33 7 1 4 54 13 1 1 2 0 686
Roansy Contreras, actual: 302 266 75 16 0 11 124 32 2 1 1 0 914
Roansy Contreras, projected: 303 269 67 19 0 10 117 30 1 1 1 0 772
Wil Crowe, actual: 47 37 9 3 0 1 15 9 0 0 1 0 961
Wil Crowe, projected: 47 41 11 2 0 2 19 6 0 0 1 0 924
Chase De Jong, actual: 60 49 18 5 0 6 41 6 0 3 2 0 2245
Chase De Jong, projected: 60 53 14 3 0 3 27 6 0 0 1 0 890
Yerry De Los Santos, actual: 104 88 17 4 1 1 26 13 0 2 1 0 591
Yerry De Los Santos, projected: 104 90 19 4 0 2 30 12 0 1 1 0 620
Bailey Falter, actual: 172 160 44 8 0 10 82 12 0 0 0 0 877
Bailey Falter, projected: 173 161 44 8 1 8 77 9 0 1 2 0 796
Thomas Hatch, actual: 94 85 23 5 0 2 34 7 0 0 1 1 651
Thomas Hatch, projected: 94 82 23 5 0 3 37 10 0 0 2 0 919
Jose Hernandez, actual: 223 197 47 15 1 9 91 22 2 1 1 0 796
Jose Hernandez, projected: 224 198 47 15 1 9 91 22 2 1 1 0 788
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Rich Hill, actual: 530 474 129 37 3 15 217 47 2 1 4 2 878
Rich Hill, projected: 532 470 110 23 2 16 184 48 3 3 7 0 671
Colin Holderman, actual: 240 215 55 11 0 4 78 20 1 2 2 0 643
Colin Holderman, projected: 241 210 50 9 1 3 69 23 1 3 4 0 588
Andre Jackson, actual: 178 155 30 6 1 6 56 19 0 2 2 0 579
Andre Jackson, projected: 179 159 36 8 1 6 64 16 2 1 1 0 655
Mitch Keller, actual: 825 752 187 38 2 25 304 55 1 5 12 0 688
Mitch Keller, projected: 828 736 202 41 3 21 314 71 3 5 12 0 806
Carmen Mlodzinski, actual: 152 131 28 4 0 3 41 18 0 2 1 0 583
Carmen Mlodzinski, projected: 152 131 28 4 0 3 41 18 0 2 1 0 583
Dauri Moreta, actual: 239 209 39 16 1 4 69 24 0 3 3 0 516
Dauri Moreta, projected: 240 211 42 13 1 9 84 22 0 3 4 0 621
Kyle Nicolas, actual: 26 21 7 2 0 1 12 4 0 0 1 0 1393
Kyle Nicolas, projected: 26 21 7 2 0 1 12 4 0 0 1 0 1393
Luis Ortiz, actual: 400 344 99 14 1 13 154 48 0 6 2 0 1010
Luis Ortiz, projected: 401 345 92 14 1 12 143 50 0 5 2 0 915
Johan Oviedo, actual: 781 678 161 41 5 19 269 83 1 4 13 2 732
Johan Oviedo, projected: 783 678 162 37 4 19 266 84 1 4 15 1 744
Chris Owings, actual: 6 6 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1598
Chris Owings, projected: 6 6 3 1 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 3306
Angel Perdomo, actual: 117 101 21 7 0 3 37 11 2 0 3 0 515
Angel Perdomo, projected: 117 94 20 6 0 4 37 19 1 1 3 0 798
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Quinn Priester, actual: 234 200 58 17 0 12 111 27 1 3 3 0 1169
Quinn Priester, projected: 235 201 58 17 0 12 111 27 1 3 3 0 1157
Yohan Ramirez, actual: 155 131 34 2 0 3 45 14 0 0 10 0 794
Yohan Ramirez, projected: 155 127 28 4 0 5 45 19 1 1 7 0 770
Colin Selby, actual: 114 98 29 2 0 4 43 15 1 0 0 0 985
Colin Selby, projected: 114 98 29 2 0 4 43 15 1 0 0 0 985
Robert Stephenson, actual: 61 52 12 2 0 3 23 8 0 1 0 0 832
Robert Stephenson, projected: 61 54 13 3 0 2 24 6 0 1 0 0 727
Hunter Stratton, actual: 47 43 9 3 1 2 20 3 0 0 1 0 572
Hunter Stratton, projected: 47 43 9 3 1 2 20 3 0 0 1 0 572
Duane Underwood Jr., actual: 100 88 24 5 1 3 40 11 0 1 0 0 749
Duane Underwood Jr., projected: 100 89 24 5 0 3 38 9 0 1 1 0 821
Vince Velasquez, actual: 162 146 35 9 0 4 56 14 1 0 1 0 684
Vince Velasquez, projected: 162 144 37 8 1 6 65 15 1 1 2 0 796
Rob Zastryzny, actual: 97 82 24 6 0 1 33 13 2 0 0 0 851
Rob Zastryzny, projected: 97 84 23 5 0 1 32 11 1 1 1 0 810
Pirates, Actual: 6238 5491 1380 313 20 179 2270 596 22 43 81 5 767
Pirates, Projected: 6255 5477 1370 297 21 184 2260 626 23 45 87 1 768
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.251 0.250
Slugging Average: 0.413 0.413
Walks (per PA): 0.096 0.100
SOs (per PA): 0.218 0.223
On-Base Average: 0.331 0.334
Power Factor: 1.645 1.650
OPS: 0.745 0.747
TPP Runs (to date): 790 771

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 19 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.