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Padres 2025 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2025 Padres Projected Pitching

Through games of Thursday, 22 May 2025.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.024)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Michael King, actual: 10 225 205 40 9 0 6 67 17 19 167 0 1 2 2 0 0 491
Michael King, projected: 10 230 208 46 8 1 5 72 19 22 167 1 1 3 2 1 2 567
Dylan Cease, actual: 10 227 204 48 12 0 7 81 19 29 162 1 1 1 2 1 4 664
Dylan Cease, projected: 10 232 205 46 9 1 7 77 23 26 162 0 1 2 1 0 4 680
Nick Pivetta, actual: 9 198 181 35 6 1 5 58 15 17 151 0 1 1 1 0 2 449
Nick Pivetta, projected: 9 203 182 45 9 1 8 79 17 26 151 1 1 1 1 0 3 720
Randy Vásquez, actual: 10 215 185 44 5 1 5 66 26 20 147 0 1 3 1 0 4 725
Randy Vásquez, projected: 10 220 195 52 9 1 6 82 20 24 147 1 1 4 1 0 5 826
Stephen Kolek, actual: 4 104 94 24 1 0 3 34 8 9 76 0 1 1 0 0 0 592
Stephen Kolek, projected: 4 106 98 28 3 0 2 39 7 13 76 0 0 1 0 0 1 689
Jason Adam, actual: 23 97 83 11 1 0 2 18 12 5 73 1 0 1 0 0 6 379
Jason Adam, projected: 23 99 86 15 3 0 3 27 9 9 73 0 1 3 0 1 4 507
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Jeremiah Estrada, actual: 24 89 80 17 3 1 3 31 6 9 66 1 1 1 0 1 0 558
Jeremiah Estrada, projected: 24 91 79 17 3 0 3 28 10 9 66 0 2 0 1 1 1 675
Alek Jacob, actual: 21 104 88 28 5 0 5 48 9 15 65 0 2 5 0 0 4 1323
Alek Jacob, projected: 21 106 93 23 3 1 4 39 7 12 65 0 2 4 0 0 3 957
Kyle Hart, actual: 5 90 83 23 5 0 6 46 6 14 63 0 1 0 0 0 1 951
Kyle Hart, projected: 5 92 82 28 5 0 6 50 9 21 63 0 1 0 1 0 1 1361
Robert Suarez, actual: 21 75 67 9 2 0 0 11 8 7 60 0 0 0 1 0 0 180
Robert Suarez, projected: 21 77 69 13 2 0 2 20 7 7 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 409
Yuki Matsui, actual: 20 77 66 11 3 1 2 22 9 7 59 0 2 0 0 1 2 481
Yuki Matsui, projected: 20 79 69 13 3 1 2 25 8 8 59 0 1 0 0 1 1 527
Adrián Morejón, actual: 22 85 77 20 3 1 1 28 4 12 59 3 1 0 0 1 4 655
Adrián Morejón, projected: 22 87 79 21 5 0 3 34 6 11 59 1 1 0 1 1 2 832
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Wandy Peralta, actual: 20 85 75 19 5 0 2 30 9 12 56 0 1 0 2 1 2 897
Wandy Peralta, projected: 20 87 76 18 3 0 2 28 9 10 56 0 1 1 1 0 1 737
Logan Gillaspie, actual: 3 31 26 7 0 0 1 10 4 2 21 0 0 1 0 0 0 782
Logan Gillaspie, projected: 3 32 29 9 2 0 1 14 2 4 21 0 0 1 0 0 0 918
Sean Reynolds, actual: 5 28 25 5 1 0 2 12 3 5 21 0 0 0 0 0 1 719
Sean Reynolds, projected: 5 29 25 6 1 0 1 9 3 2 21 0 0 0 0 0 1 648
Ryan Bergert, actual: 4 14 13 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 12 0 0 1 0 0 0 47
Ryan Bergert, projected: 4 14 13 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 12 0 0 1 0 0 0 41
Omar Cruz, actual: 2 18 15 4 1 0 0 5 3 2 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 861
Omar Cruz, projected: 2 18 15 4 1 0 0 5 3 2 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 891
Tyler Wade, actual: 1 6 5 2 1 0 0 3 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2136
Tyler Wade, projected: 1 6 5 2 1 0 0 3 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2106
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Padres, Actual: 48 1768 1572 348 63 5 50 571 159 185 1272 6 13 17 9 5 30 182
Padres, Projected: 48 1808 1608 387 70 6 55 632 160 207 1272 4 13 21 9 5 29 209


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.221 0.241
Slugging Average: 0.363 0.393
Walks (per PA): 0.090 0.088
SOs (per PA): 0.237 0.242
On-Base Average: 0.298 0.315
Power Factor: 1.641 1.633
OPS: 0.661 0.708
Runs Calculated from Actual Stats: 182
Runs Calculated from Projected Stats: 209
Actual Runs Scored: 185

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This page was last modified on Friday, 23 May 2025, at 4:02 am Pacific Time.