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Mariners 2026 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2026 Mariners Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 27 September 2026.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.003)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Randy Arozarena, actual: 154 670 572 161 34 2 26 277 68 0 4 26 0 1085
Randy Arozarena, projected: 154 672 581 148 32 2 24 257 66 0 4 21 0 871
Michael Arroyo, actual: 15 41 35 13 2 0 1 18 5 0 1 0 0 2008
Michael Arroyo, projected: 15 41 35 13 2 0 1 18 5 0 1 0 0 2008
Ryan Bliss, actual: 3 10 8 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 298
Ryan Bliss, projected: 3 10 9 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 315
Dominic Canzone, actual: 146 533 477 126 28 4 23 231 48 0 3 5 0 866
Dominic Canzone, projected: 146 534 484 123 27 2 22 219 43 0 3 4 0 755
J.P. Crawford, actual: 116 489 412 91 12 0 14 145 64 2 3 8 0 678
J.P. Crawford, projected: 116 490 424 104 21 2 9 155 57 2 2 5 0 703
Brendan Donovan, actual: 39 159 137 38 7 1 3 56 15 0 1 6 0 814
Brendan Donovan, projected: 39 159 140 39 8 0 3 58 15 0 1 4 0 869
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Colt Emerson, actual: 69 241 221 42 6 1 8 74 15 1 2 2 0 447
Colt Emerson, projected: 69 242 222 42 6 1 8 74 15 1 2 2 0 438
Mitch Garver, actual: 50 149 126 22 3 0 4 37 22 0 0 1 0 624
Mitch Garver, projected: 50 149 130 30 6 0 7 56 17 0 1 2 0 801
Connor Joe, actual: 21 45 39 7 2 0 1 12 6 0 0 0 0 596
Connor Joe, projected: 21 45 39 9 2 0 1 15 5 0 0 1 0 650
Buddy Kennedy, actual: 5 11 10 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 397
Buddy Kennedy, projected: 5 11 10 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 326
Miles Mastrobuoni, actual: 13 30 26 5 0 0 0 5 2 1 1 0 0 280
Miles Mastrobuoni, projected: 13 30 27 6 1 0 0 7 3 1 0 0 0 394
Lázaro Montes, actual: 21 59 52 11 2 0 4 25 7 0 0 0 0 692
Lázaro Montes, projected: 21 59 52 11 2 0 4 25 7 0 0 0 0 650
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Josh Naylor, actual: 152 650 597 156 23 0 10 209 45 0 2 5 1 614
Josh Naylor, projected: 152 652 591 158 31 0 21 254 49 0 4 5 1 752
Jhonny Pereda, actual: 31 101 90 27 2 0 2 35 9 0 1 1 0 910
Jhonny Pereda, projected: 31 101 92 25 4 0 1 31 8 0 0 1 0 642
Cal Raleigh, actual: 126 530 451 82 15 0 23 166 72 0 4 3 0 626
Cal Raleigh, projected: 126 531 464 101 20 0 31 215 60 0 4 4 0 793
Luke Raley, actual: 95 287 262 59 9 1 15 115 15 2 1 7 0 701
Luke Raley, projected: 95 288 254 58 12 1 12 109 19 2 1 12 0 740
Rob Refsnyder, actual: 53 129 114 16 1 0 4 29 8 1 3 3 0 321
Rob Refsnyder, projected: 53 129 112 28 6 0 3 42 13 0 1 2 0 691
Leo Rivas, actual: 51 148 124 19 3 1 0 24 16 2 2 4 0 283
Leo Rivas, projected: 51 148 123 25 3 1 1 32 20 2 1 3 0 517
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Víctor Robles, actual: 65 149 133 34 3 2 0 41 9 3 1 3 0 569
Víctor Robles, projected: 65 149 132 33 7 1 2 48 9 2 1 5 0 659
Brock Rodden, actual: 30 72 61 12 3 1 0 17 10 0 1 0 0 525
Brock Rodden, projected: 30 72 61 12 3 1 0 17 10 0 1 0 0 490
Julio Rodríguez, actual: 150 654 596 147 26 0 22 239 47 0 4 7 0 715
Julio Rodríguez, projected: 150 656 601 162 27 2 27 274 44 0 2 9 0 850
Taylor Ward, actual: 32 101 88 11 0 1 0 13 12 0 0 1 0 229
Taylor Ward, projected: 32 101 88 21 4 0 4 37 11 0 1 1 0 813
Weston Wilson, actual: 54 137 125 24 4 0 3 37 12 0 0 0 0 456
Weston Wilson, projected: 54 137 122 27 5 0 4 46 14 0 0 1 0 618
Will Wilson, actual: 2 6 5 1 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 1455
Will Wilson, projected: 2 6 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 118
Player (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Patrick Wisdom, actual: 19 50 47 5 1 0 1 9 3 0 0 0 0 178
Patrick Wisdom, projected: 19 50 45 9 2 0 3 20 4 0 0 1 0 677
Cole Young, actual: 160 638 577 142 19 4 17 220 44 1 3 13 0 656
Cole Young, projected: 160 640 572 135 19 4 15 206 51 2 4 11 0 599
Mariners, Actual: 162 6089 5385 1253 206 18 182 2041 557 13 38 95 1 681
Mariners, Projected: 162 6102 5415 1324 250 17 203 2221 547 12 34 94 1 728


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.233 0.245
Slugging Average: 0.379 0.410
Walks (per PA): 0.091 0.090
SOs (per PA): 0.230 0.232
On-Base Average: 0.314 0.323
Power Factor: 1.629 1.677
OPS: 0.693 0.733
Runs Expected from Actual Stats: 681
Runs Expected from Projected Stats: 728
Actual Runs Scored: 664

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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, at 5:31 am Pacific Time.