Skip to main content 

Owing to the width of most of the many data tables on this site, it is best viewed from a desktop computer. If you are on a mobile device (phone or tablet), you will obtain a better viewing experience by rotating your device a quarter-turn (to get the so-called “panorama” screen view).


The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site




Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.
 Click here to email us. 



You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   this page
(Click on any image above to see it at full size.)
You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   this page
(Click on any image above to see it at full size.)

You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   this page
You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   this page
You can get a site directory by clicking on the “hamburger” icon () in the upper right of this page.
Or you can search this site with Google (standard Google-search rules apply).

Search term(s):



Mariners 2026 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2026 Mariners Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 27 September 2026.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.987)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Kade Anderson, actual: 7 146 135 35 3 2 4 54 9 15 107 0 2 0 0 0 3 650
Kade Anderson, projected: 7 144 133 35 3 2 4 53 9 15 107 0 2 0 0 0 3 648
Eduard Bazardo, actual: 73 297 263 73 12 0 13 124 25 34 202 2 5 2 2 2 7 927
Eduard Bazardo, projected: 73 293 263 59 10 0 10 100 24 29 202 1 3 2 1 1 6 655
Matt Brash, actual: 20 64 53 8 2 0 0 10 6 2 50 1 1 3 0 1 0 226
Matt Brash, projected: 20 63 54 13 2 0 1 17 7 5 50 0 0 1 0 0 1 502
Luis Castillo, actual: 20 443 397 107 22 2 16 181 32 65 299 4 4 5 7 1 7 906
Luis Castillo, projected: 20 437 395 93 20 2 14 157 34 48 299 2 2 4 3 1 5 689
Cooper Criswell, actual: 37 172 151 41 3 2 3 57 16 18 122 2 2 1 1 3 3 666
Cooper Criswell, projected: 37 170 152 43 7 1 4 65 13 21 122 1 2 2 2 1 2 762
Nick Davila, actual: 24 119 100 24 5 0 2 35 13 17 82 0 2 4 0 0 0 679
Nick Davila, projected: 24 117 99 24 5 0 2 35 13 17 82 0 2 4 0 0 0 689
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Jhonathan Díaz, actual: 1 6 6 2 0 0 1 5 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1569
Jhonathan Díaz, projected: 1 6 5 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 486
Seranthony Domínguez, actual: 24 95 86 18 1 1 3 30 8 8 71 0 0 1 0 0 3 542
Seranthony Domínguez, projected: 24 94 82 17 3 0 3 28 10 10 71 0 0 1 1 0 3 601
Jose A. Ferrer, actual: 73 295 265 75 11 0 7 107 20 33 194 3 0 7 5 2 2 859
Jose A. Ferrer, projected: 73 291 264 72 9 1 6 100 18 34 194 3 1 6 3 2 4 730
Logan Gilbert, actual: 32 750 686 153 36 1 29 278 49 77 558 5 3 7 3 2 16 595
Logan Gilbert, projected: 32 740 686 153 36 2 25 269 41 77 558 3 4 6 4 1 13 572
Domingo González, actual: 5 36 30 9 2 0 1 14 5 4 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 1012
Domingo González, projected: 5 36 30 9 2 0 1 14 5 4 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 1004
Emerson Hancock, actual: 25 566 524 126 23 0 20 209 32 56 416 0 3 7 3 1 9 621
Emerson Hancock, projected: 25 558 509 130 20 1 21 215 37 66 416 0 3 8 4 0 9 693
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Alex Hoppe, actual: 24 123 110 27 9 0 2 42 11 21 84 0 1 1 2 0 4 765
Alex Hoppe, projected: 24 121 105 26 7 0 2 39 13 18 84 1 1 2 1 1 3 743
George Kirby, actual: 30 741 687 197 39 3 22 308 47 89 524 1 3 3 1 1 23 772
George Kirby, projected: 30 731 688 178 32 4 21 279 31 79 524 1 5 6 4 0 18 664
Casey Legumina, actual: 8 53 44 15 7 0 0 22 3 6 35 1 2 3 0 0 0 993
Casey Legumina, projected: 8 52 46 12 3 0 2 20 5 7 35 0 1 1 0 0 0 871
Bryce Miller, actual: 22 485 443 100 17 3 21 186 38 60 356 1 1 2 1 1 9 650
Bryce Miller, projected: 22 479 440 101 23 1 17 178 32 55 356 1 2 3 1 0 9 604
Hoby Milner, actual: 6 28 25 8 2 0 1 13 1 3 19 1 1 0 0 0 0 950
Hoby Milner, projected: 6 28 25 6 1 0 1 10 2 3 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 648
Andrés Muñoz, actual: 61 240 213 46 4 1 9 79 24 29 172 0 2 1 0 0 8 668
Andrés Muñoz, projected: 61 237 208 39 6 0 5 60 24 21 172 1 1 3 1 2 6 473
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Jhonny Pereda, actual: 1 4 4 3 0 0 1 6 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 12853
Jhonny Pereda, projected: 1 4 4 2 0 0 1 5 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 10368
Leo Rivas, actual: 1 13 11 9 1 0 1 13 1 9 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 14380
Leo Rivas, projected: 1 13 12 6 1 0 1 9 1 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 9720
Víctor Robles, actual: 1 9 8 5 0 0 0 5 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5533
Víctor Robles, projected: 1 9 8 5 0 0 0 5 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5508
Michael Rucker, actual: 37 186 166 39 5 0 6 62 17 31 131 1 0 2 1 0 4 672
Michael Rucker, projected: 37 184 163 41 6 1 6 68 17 26 131 0 1 2 1 0 2 727
Josh Simpson, actual: 8 38 33 11 1 0 4 24 4 8 22 0 0 1 0 0 0 1811
Josh Simpson, projected: 8 37 31 9 1 0 2 16 5 7 22 0 0 1 0 0 0 1316
Gabe Speier, actual: 54 190 166 35 7 1 5 59 15 17 138 2 2 5 1 2 12 616
Gabe Speier, projected: 54 187 168 37 7 1 5 60 13 19 138 1 2 3 1 2 7 585
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
José Suarez, actual: 1 11 5 2 1 0 0 3 2 1 6 2 1 1 0 0 0 1496
José Suarez, projected: 1 11 10 3 1 0 0 4 1 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 972
Troy Taylor, actual: 2 15 13 4 1 0 1 8 2 3 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1443
Troy Taylor, projected: 2 15 13 4 1 0 1 7 1 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1215
Carlos Vargas, actual: 16 81 73 16 6 0 2 28 4 10 57 0 0 4 0 0 2 640
Carlos Vargas, projected: 16 80 71 19 3 0 3 30 6 10 57 0 0 2 1 1 1 780
Cole Wilcox, actual: 23 123 103 27 2 0 2 35 17 13 81 0 1 2 1 1 2 800
Cole Wilcox, projected: 23 121 101 28 3 0 2 36 18 18 81 0 1 2 2 1 3 958
Weston Wilson, actual: 1 8 7 5 0 0 0 5 0 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 6250
Weston Wilson, projected: 1 8 8 4 0 0 1 6 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 4050
Bryan Woo, actual: 30 710 659 152 28 4 18 242 39 84 519 0 4 8 4 1 8 577
Bryan Woo, projected: 30 701 653 141 25 2 22 235 36 71 519 1 3 7 4 1 7 535
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Mariners, Actual: 162 6047 5466 1372 250 20 194 2244 441 722 4291 26 42 70 32 18 122 709
Mariners, Projected: 162 5967 5426 1310 237 18 183 2122 418 678 4291 16 37 66 35 14 102 655


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.251 0.241
Slugging Average: 0.411 0.391
Walks (per PA): 0.073 0.070
SOs (per PA): 0.230 0.233
On-Base Average: 0.313 0.302
Power Factor: 1.636 1.620
OPS: 0.723 0.693
Runs Calculated from Actual Stats: 709
Runs Calculated from Projected Stats: 655
Actual Runs Scored: 722

Return to the page top. ↑




  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:



Want detailed, careful, unhysterical analysis of the effects of “Performance-Enhancing Drugs” in baseball? Click here to visit the Steroids & Baseball web site.

All content copyright © 2002 - 2026 by The Owlcroft Company.

This web page is strictly compliant with the WHATWG (Web Hypertext Application Technology Working Group) HyperText Markup Language (HTML5) Protocol versionless “Living Standard” and the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium) Cascading Style Sheets (CSS3) Protocol v3  — because we care about interoperability. Click on the logos below to test us!



This page was last modified on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, at 5:31 am Pacific Time.