Skip to main content 

Owing to the width of most of the many data tables on this site, it is best viewed from a desktop computer. If you are on a mobile device (phone or tablet), you will obtain a better viewing experience by rotating your device a quarter-turn (to get the so-called “panorama” screen view).


The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site




Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.
 Click here to email us. 



You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   this page
(Click on any image above to see it at full size.)
You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   this page
(Click on any image above to see it at full size.)

You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   this page
You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   this page
You can get a site directory by clicking on the “hamburger” icon () in the upper right of this page.
Or you can search this site with Google (standard Google-search rules apply).

Search term(s):



Blue Jays 2026 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2026 Blue Jays Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 27 September 2026.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.99)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Tanner Andrews, actual: 2 11 9 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 138
Tanner Andrews, projected: 2 11 9 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 162
Spencer Arrighetti, actual: 7 106 89 21 4 0 6 43 14 20 68 0 1 1 2 0 2 1112
Spencer Arrighetti, projected: 7 105 90 21 4 0 4 37 12 14 68 0 1 2 0 0 4 903
Shane Bieber, actual: 11 242 217 55 10 0 10 95 24 28 167 0 1 0 1 0 1 800
Shane Bieber, projected: 11 240 223 53 11 1 7 86 14 23 167 0 1 1 2 0 2 619
Dylan Cease, actual: 29 685 599 108 21 0 11 162 78 54 507 1 4 3 3 0 33 462
Dylan Cease, projected: 29 678 598 131 27 3 18 217 69 73 507 1 4 5 4 1 14 603
Brendan Cellucci, actual: 6 30 27 2 0 1 0 4 3 0 26 0 0 0 0 1 1 94
Brendan Cellucci, projected: 6 30 27 2 0 1 0 4 3 0 26 0 0 0 0 1 1 108
Patrick Corbin, actual: 19 360 325 98 21 0 12 155 25 50 240 1 3 6 1 0 11 975
Patrick Corbin, projected: 19 357 324 89 18 2 12 144 25 45 240 2 2 2 3 1 6 836
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Chad Dallas, actual: 6 64 55 13 1 0 2 20 8 8 43 0 1 0 0 0 1 791
Chad Dallas, projected: 6 63 54 13 1 0 2 20 8 8 43 0 1 0 0 0 1 810
Lázaro Estrada, actual: 8 57 45 8 0 0 2 14 10 9 39 0 1 1 0 1 1 685
Lázaro Estrada, projected: 8 56 47 11 1 0 2 20 7 10 39 1 1 2 0 1 1 810
Braydon Fisher, actual: 75 310 255 52 7 1 8 85 44 34 227 4 4 3 1 5 2 533
Braydon Fisher, projected: 75 307 259 50 8 1 7 81 38 29 227 3 4 4 2 4 5 508
Josh Fleming, actual: 1 18 14 6 0 0 1 9 2 4 9 0 1 1 1 0 0 2819
Josh Fleming, projected: 1 18 16 5 1 0 1 7 1 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1134
Mason Fluharty, actual: 83 263 229 50 6 0 6 74 28 23 188 3 2 1 0 2 1 541
Mason Fluharty, projected: 83 260 227 47 8 0 7 74 28 28 188 2 2 2 1 3 1 545
Kevin Gausman, actual: 23 540 494 128 21 3 15 200 36 68 382 6 3 1 1 1 12 693
Kevin Gausman, projected: 23 535 491 123 25 2 16 200 36 59 382 2 3 2 3 1 9 669
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Tyler Heineman, actual: 3 18 17 7 3 0 1 13 1 5 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 2070
Tyler Heineman, projected: 3 18 17 8 2 0 1 12 0 5 10 0 0 1 0 0 0 2160
Jeff Hoffman, actual: 51 215 189 48 9 2 4 73 18 28 144 0 3 5 4 4 13 886
Jeff Hoffman, projected: 51 213 186 46 11 1 7 81 22 28 144 1 2 3 2 1 4 832
Hayden Juenger, actual: 2 10 7 2 1 0 0 3 2 3 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 1412
Hayden Juenger, projected: 2 10 8 3 1 0 0 4 1 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1134
John Klein, actual: 1 16 14 2 0 1 0 4 2 2 12 0 0 0 1 0 0 505
John Klein, projected: 1 16 13 2 0 0 0 5 3 2 12 0 0 0 0 0 1 486
Eric Lauer, actual: 8 162 144 38 5 1 11 78 16 27 109 0 1 0 0 0 2 1042
Eric Lauer, projected: 8 160 144 36 7 0 6 63 13 19 109 1 1 1 1 0 2 770
Chase Lee, actual: 8 42 33 8 0 0 3 17 8 8 29 1 0 0 0 2 1 882
Chase Lee, projected: 8 42 37 9 2 0 2 18 4 5 29 0 1 0 0 1 1 709
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Brendon Little, actual: 30 132 106 29 6 0 5 50 25 23 85 1 0 0 2 6 15 1117
Brendon Little, projected: 30 131 110 25 4 0 3 39 19 16 85 1 0 1 2 3 5 729
Michael Lorenzen, actual: 6 57 52 18 4 0 4 34 5 11 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 1468
Michael Lorenzen, projected: 6 56 50 13 2 0 2 21 5 7 35 0 0 1 0 0 1 837
Adam Macko, actual: 22 99 86 24 2 0 3 35 10 12 66 0 0 3 1 3 2 844
Adam Macko, projected: 22 98 85 26 3 0 3 39 9 13 66 0 1 3 1 2 1 979
Joe Mantiply, actual: 25 111 102 27 5 0 3 41 5 10 81 2 1 1 1 0 1 618
Joe Mantiply, projected: 25 110 101 27 5 1 2 42 7 14 81 1 1 1 1 1 2 661
Spencer Miles, actual: 49 388 360 80 10 1 5 107 25 31 287 1 1 1 1 1 11 461
Spencer Miles, projected: 49 384 357 79 10 1 5 106 25 31 287 1 1 1 1 1 11 456
Tommy Nance, actual: 32 139 124 29 2 0 5 46 13 15 99 1 1 0 2 1 8 714
Tommy Nance, projected: 32 138 121 30 4 1 3 45 13 17 99 1 1 2 2 1 6 719
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Cody Ponce, actual: 1 10 9 1 1 0 0 2 1 1 7 0 0 0 1 0 0 509
Cody Ponce, projected: 1 10 9 3 1 0 1 5 1 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1458
José Rodríguez, actual: 4 16 16 3 1 0 0 4 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 118
José Rodríguez, projected: 4 16 16 3 1 0 0 4 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 122
Yariel Rodríguez, actual: 10 45 37 12 1 0 2 19 7 11 28 0 0 1 1 0 3 1360
Yariel Rodríguez, projected: 10 45 39 9 2 0 1 14 5 5 28 0 0 1 0 0 1 697
Tyler Rogers, actual: 74 294 266 61 6 1 2 75 22 22 213 1 1 2 3 5 2 459
Tyler Rogers, projected: 74 291 269 65 11 1 4 90 14 24 213 1 2 4 2 1 4 528
Max Scherzer, actual: 18 364 325 78 12 0 15 135 35 54 254 1 1 2 1 0 7 754
Max Scherzer, projected: 18 361 330 73 16 1 11 124 24 35 254 2 2 3 2 1 5 594
Connor Seabold, actual: 5 18 16 6 0 0 0 6 2 3 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 1332
Connor Seabold, projected: 5 18 16 5 1 0 1 9 1 3 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 1199
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Paul Sewald, actual: 17 56 49 6 1 0 1 10 4 1 43 0 1 2 1 1 2 351
Paul Sewald, projected: 17 55 50 11 2 0 2 20 4 7 43 0 0 1 0 0 1 591
José Soriano, actual: 10 234 213 58 10 0 6 86 16 34 163 0 0 5 0 0 1 708
José Soriano, projected: 10 232 202 48 7 0 5 70 24 27 163 1 1 3 1 0 2 616
Myles Straw, actual: 4 20 19 8 0 0 1 11 1 2 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 1537
Myles Straw, projected: 4 20 19 8 0 0 1 11 1 2 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 1539
Jameson Taillon, actual: 3 44 39 9 1 0 2 16 5 4 30 0 0 0 0 0 1 803
Jameson Taillon, projected: 3 44 40 10 2 0 2 17 3 5 30 0 0 0 0 0 1 756
Ricky Tiedemann, actual: 5 29 22 5 0 0 0 5 6 1 18 0 0 1 0 0 1 765
Ricky Tiedemann, projected: 5 29 22 5 0 0 0 5 6 1 18 0 0 1 0 0 1 778
CJ Van Eyk, actual: 5 55 50 15 4 0 2 25 2 8 35 0 1 2 1 0 0 1155
CJ Van Eyk, projected: 5 54 50 15 4 0 2 25 2 8 35 0 1 2 1 0 0 1166
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Louis Varland, actual: 71 307 280 55 8 0 2 69 23 20 234 1 3 0 6 1 6 371
Louis Varland, projected: 71 304 277 69 11 1 10 113 21 34 234 2 2 2 3 1 3 630
Austin Voth, actual: 2 31 25 8 1 0 3 18 5 6 18 0 1 0 0 0 0 1834
Austin Voth, projected: 2 31 27 7 1 0 1 12 3 4 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 810
Matt Waldron, actual: 4 22 18 7 2 0 0 9 2 5 13 0 2 0 0 0 0 1647
Matt Waldron, projected: 4 22 20 5 1 0 1 9 1 3 13 0 0 0 0 0 1 972
Simeon Woods Richardson, actual: 8 76 63 14 4 0 2 24 12 8 55 0 1 0 0 0 1 624
Simeon Woods Richardson, projected: 8 75 66 17 3 0 2 28 7 10 55 0 1 0 0 0 1 689
Trey Yesavage, actual: 20 401 344 64 21 0 12 121 47 41 293 3 5 2 3 0 3 559
Trey Yesavage, projected: 20 397 342 66 20 0 10 117 46 39 293 3 4 2 3 0 3 543
Blue Jays, Actual: 162 6097 5383 1264 211 11 167 1998 594 694 4308 27 45 44 39 34 145 668
Blue Jays, Projected: 162 6040 5388 1269 238 17 164 2039 527 659 4308 26 40 53 37 25 101 645


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.235 0.236
Slugging Average: 0.371 0.378
Walks (per PA): 0.097 0.087
SOs (per PA): 0.231 0.243
On-Base Average: 0.314 0.308
Power Factor: 1.581 1.607
OPS: 0.685 0.686
Runs Calculated from Actual Stats: 668
Runs Calculated from Projected Stats: 645
Actual Runs Scored: 694

Return to the page top. ↑




  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:



Want detailed, careful, unhysterical analysis of the effects of “Performance-Enhancing Drugs” in baseball? Click here to visit the Steroids & Baseball web site.

All content copyright © 2002 - 2026 by The Owlcroft Company.

This web page is strictly compliant with the WHATWG (Web Hypertext Application Technology Working Group) HyperText Markup Language (HTML5) Protocol versionless “Living Standard” and the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium) Cascading Style Sheets (CSS3) Protocol v3  — because we care about interoperability. Click on the logos below to test us!



This page was last modified on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, at 5:31 am Pacific Time.