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Nationals 2026 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2026 Nationals Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 27 September 2026.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.994)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Andrew Alvarez, actual: 25 473 415 95 22 3 7 144 51 43 338 1 3 3 3 0 7 592
Andrew Alvarez, projected: 25 470 413 91 20 2 7 136 50 42 338 1 2 3 4 0 7 564
Clayton Beeter, actual: 50 209 170 36 4 0 8 64 31 25 144 2 3 3 0 4 10 759
Clayton Beeter, projected: 50 208 170 34 4 0 7 59 32 25 144 2 3 2 0 3 9 690
Jake Bird, actual: 8 33 31 6 0 0 2 12 2 3 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 585
Jake Bird, projected: 8 33 29 8 2 0 1 12 3 4 25 0 0 1 0 0 0 689
Cade Cavalli, actual: 32 706 637 148 22 0 18 224 48 68 509 1 4 16 4 0 9 594
Cade Cavalli, projected: 32 702 631 156 24 1 19 238 48 76 509 1 4 17 5 0 10 663
Riley Cornelio, actual: 18 160 126 26 5 0 2 37 29 22 110 1 4 0 0 1 3 637
Riley Cornelio, projected: 18 159 125 26 5 0 2 37 29 22 110 1 4 0 0 1 3 639
Tom Cosgrove, actual: 18 74 62 18 4 2 3 35 6 16 49 0 4 2 1 0 2 1257
Tom Cosgrove, projected: 18 74 64 15 2 1 2 23 6 10 49 0 1 2 0 0 1 774
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Yovanny Cruz, actual: 13 50 41 13 1 0 2 20 8 8 32 0 0 1 0 0 0 1081
Yovanny Cruz, projected: 13 50 42 11 1 0 1 17 6 6 32 0 0 1 0 0 0 685
Will Dion, actual: 15 116 101 18 6 0 4 36 14 10 90 0 1 0 0 0 1 463
Will Dion, projected: 15 115 104 24 5 0 5 43 10 14 90 0 1 1 0 0 2 616
Connelly Early, actual: 1 10 10 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 29
Connelly Early, projected: 1 10 9 2 0 0 0 3 1 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 324
Julian Fernández, actual: 3 18 15 3 0 0 1 6 2 3 12 0 1 0 0 0 1 1011
Julian Fernández, projected: 3 18 16 4 1 0 1 8 2 4 12 0 0 0 0 0 1 1134
Andre Granillo, actual: 8 50 39 13 2 0 2 21 8 12 28 1 1 1 0 0 0 1574
Andre Granillo, projected: 8 50 42 12 2 1 2 21 5 8 28 1 1 1 0 0 0 1296
Josiah Gray, actual: 3 15 14 3 1 0 0 4 1 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 261
Josiah Gray, projected: 3 15 13 3 1 0 1 6 2 2 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 810
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Foster Griffin, actual: 22 524 483 109 18 0 19 184 30 49 388 2 1 8 5 0 6 583
Foster Griffin, projected: 22 521 474 117 24 1 16 192 34 57 388 3 3 8 5 0 5 648
Cole Henry, actual: 11 70 59 17 3 0 4 32 7 14 41 0 0 3 1 0 1 1457
Cole Henry, projected: 11 70 57 13 2 0 2 23 9 9 41 0 0 3 0 0 2 957
DJ Herz, actual: 2 35 32 11 4 0 3 24 3 8 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 1677
DJ Herz, projected: 2 35 31 7 1 0 1 12 3 4 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 648
Jake Irvin, actual: 22 470 409 100 18 0 20 178 48 70 320 0 4 9 4 0 13 873
Jake Irvin, projected: 22 467 420 107 20 1 20 189 39 65 320 0 2 5 4 0 6 825
Jackson Kent, actual: 8 170 145 40 10 1 2 58 25 25 109 0 0 0 1 0 3 917
Jackson Kent, projected: 8 169 144 40 10 1 2 58 25 25 109 0 0 0 1 0 3 911
Zak Kent, actual: 9 57 53 15 7 0 1 25 3 8 38 0 1 0 2 0 2 1011
Zak Kent, projected: 9 57 50 13 3 0 1 22 6 9 38 0 0 0 1 0 1 792
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Max Kranick, actual: 17 94 79 27 7 1 4 48 13 19 55 1 0 1 0 0 2 1550
Max Kranick, projected: 17 93 83 23 6 0 3 38 8 13 55 0 1 1 0 1 1 1010
Matt Krook, actual: 6 25 18 4 0 0 1 7 6 4 14 0 0 1 0 0 0 1242
Matt Krook, projected: 6 25 19 6 1 0 1 11 5 7 14 0 0 1 1 0 1 1728
Justin Lawrence, actual: 7 32 24 7 3 0 1 13 7 3 19 0 1 0 0 0 3 1559
Justin Lawrence, projected: 7 32 27 7 1 0 1 11 4 5 19 0 0 1 0 0 1 995
Zack Littell, actual: 23 481 436 115 16 1 25 208 35 69 337 1 6 3 4 0 10 872
Zack Littell, projected: 23 478 442 115 23 1 20 200 27 56 337 1 3 4 3 1 6 761
Brad Lord, actual: 40 357 311 69 10 0 10 109 33 36 250 2 2 8 5 3 1 646
Brad Lord, projected: 40 355 316 77 13 1 11 123 30 40 250 2 2 4 3 1 2 684
Richard Lovelady, actual: 32 140 112 33 8 0 4 53 20 15 83 4 0 4 1 3 1 1150
Richard Lovelady, projected: 32 139 119 32 7 0 4 52 14 19 83 1 2 3 1 2 2 967
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Miles Mikolas, actual: 25 498 467 137 28 0 27 246 23 80 348 0 6 2 4 0 9 938
Miles Mikolas, projected: 25 495 461 122 24 2 17 202 23 61 348 2 4 5 4 1 5 726
Carson Palmquist, actual: 11 78 65 21 4 0 1 28 8 14 49 1 1 3 0 0 4 1100
Carson Palmquist, projected: 11 78 63 20 4 0 3 35 10 15 49 1 2 2 0 0 4 1355
Mitchell Parker, actual: 22 178 159 46 5 1 9 80 13 31 119 4 0 2 2 0 0 965
Mitchell Parker, projected: 22 177 161 43 9 1 6 72 13 26 119 1 2 1 1 0 1 847
Luis Perales, actual: 6 60 47 15 2 0 5 32 13 14 33 0 0 0 0 0 1 1897
Luis Perales, projected: 6 60 47 15 2 0 5 32 13 14 33 0 0 0 0 0 1 1890
Cionel Pérez, actual: 16 73 62 16 1 0 2 23 11 12 48 0 0 0 1 0 0 837
Cionel Pérez, projected: 16 73 63 16 2 0 1 23 9 9 48 0 0 1 1 0 1 739
PJ Poulin, actual: 35 153 131 27 7 0 4 46 21 12 110 0 0 1 1 1 3 585
PJ Poulin, projected: 35 152 130 29 5 0 3 45 20 13 110 0 1 2 1 1 3 620
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Orlando Ribalta, actual: 45 178 157 34 5 0 5 54 18 21 129 1 2 0 1 0 4 592
Orlando Ribalta, projected: 45 177 153 40 7 0 6 65 20 25 129 1 2 1 2 0 3 835
Jackson Rutledge, actual: 1 12 10 6 1 1 0 9 2 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 7475
Jackson Rutledge, projected: 1 12 11 3 1 0 1 6 1 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2268
Paxton Schultz, actual: 27 153 137 43 7 1 5 67 12 26 97 1 1 1 1 1 6 1157
Paxton Schultz, projected: 27 152 136 40 9 1 5 67 12 24 97 1 2 1 1 1 3 1068
Jared Simpson, actual: 4 20 13 1 0 0 0 1 7 5 13 0 0 0 0 0 1 500
Jared Simpson, projected: 4 20 13 1 0 0 0 1 7 5 13 0 0 0 0 0 1 486
Jack Sinclair, actual: 11 46 38 6 3 0 0 9 4 3 33 0 1 3 1 0 1 476
Jack Sinclair, projected: 11 46 38 6 3 0 0 9 4 3 33 0 1 3 1 0 1 471
José Tena, actual: 1 5 4 2 0 0 0 2 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1462
José Tena, projected: 1 5 4 2 0 0 0 2 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1458
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Erik Tolman, actual: 15 67 56 13 2 0 1 18 9 6 46 0 2 0 0 0 1 698
Erik Tolman, projected: 15 67 56 13 2 0 1 18 9 6 46 0 2 0 0 0 1 702
Gus Varland, actual: 34 155 136 43 12 1 7 78 15 26 99 1 3 0 0 1 7 1271
Gus Varland, projected: 34 154 135 41 10 1 5 68 16 23 99 1 1 1 1 1 6 1120
Jorbit Vivas, actual: 4 27 23 11 3 0 1 17 1 7 12 0 0 3 1 0 0 3446
Jorbit Vivas, projected: 4 27 23 11 3 0 1 17 1 7 12 0 0 3 1 0 0 3443
Ken Waldichuk, actual: 5 41 34 8 0 0 4 20 6 7 28 0 0 1 0 0 0 1075
Ken Waldichuk, projected: 5 41 35 9 3 0 2 17 4 6 28 0 0 1 0 0 0 907
Matt Waldron, actual: 3 25 24 7 1 0 0 8 1 0 17 0 0 0 1 0 1 769
Matt Waldron, projected: 3 25 23 6 1 0 1 10 2 3 17 0 0 0 0 0 1 756
Joey Wiemer, actual: 2 16 12 7 1 0 1 11 2 5 6 0 1 1 0 0 0 5399
Joey Wiemer, projected: 2 16 12 7 1 0 1 11 2 5 6 0 1 1 0 0 0 5427
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) G PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB R OUTS SH SF HBP ROE IBB SB TPP
Trevor Williams, actual: 8 71 63 15 3 0 2 24 6 5 51 0 1 1 0 0 0 632
Trevor Williams, projected: 8 71 64 17 3 0 2 28 5 9 51 0 1 1 0 0 1 749
Eddy Yean, actual: 8 45 42 8 3 0 1 14 2 3 33 0 0 1 1 0 1 523
Eddy Yean, projected: 8 45 42 8 3 0 1 14 2 3 33 0 0 1 1 0 1 527
Nationals, Actual: 162 6270 5502 1393 259 12 218 2330 605 815 4311 24 54 82 45 14 115 808
Nationals, Projected: 162 6238 5510 1392 270 15 191 2276 572 783 4311 20 48 82 42 13 96 768


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.253 0.253
Slugging Average: 0.423 0.413
Walks (per PA): 0.096 0.092
SOs (per PA): 0.205 0.209
On-Base Average: 0.333 0.329
Power Factor: 1.673 1.635
OPS: 0.757 0.742
Runs Calculated from Actual Stats: 808
Runs Calculated from Projected Stats: 768
Actual Runs Scored: 815

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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, at 5:31 am Pacific Time.